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BP Warns of 4th Quarter Profit Hit as Production and Refining Margins Fall

Logo of British Petrol BP is seen at a petrol station in Pienkow, Poland, June 8, 2022. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel/File Photo
Logo of British Petrol BP is seen at a petrol station in Pienkow, Poland, June 8, 2022. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel/File Photo
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BP Warns of 4th Quarter Profit Hit as Production and Refining Margins Fall

Logo of British Petrol BP is seen at a petrol station in Pienkow, Poland, June 8, 2022. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel/File Photo
Logo of British Petrol BP is seen at a petrol station in Pienkow, Poland, June 8, 2022. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel/File Photo

BP warned on Tuesday that lower production, weak refining margins and sluggish trading would see its profit in the fourth quarter of 2024 fall from the previous three months.
Since taking the helm a year ago, CEO Murray Auchincloss has scaled back the firm's energy transition strategy in an effort to boost profits and regain investor confidence as BP's share lags behind its competitors, Reuters reported.
A capital markets event previously scheduled for Feb. 11 in New York will instead take place on Feb. 26 in London, BP said, as Auchincloss is recovering from a planned medical procedure.
BP said the drop in refining margins and a higher impact from turnaround and maintenance activity would result in a quarter-on-quarter drop in profit of up to $300 million, while realizations in its oil production and operations unit could lead to a further reduction of $200 million to $400 million. It also expects a drop in upstream production.
The company's third quarter underlying replacement cost profit, the company's definition of net income, was $2.27 billion, already the weakest since the fourth quarter of 2020, when profits collapsed during the pandemic.
Global demand for gasoline and diesel has fallen short of expectations, while the launch of new oil refineries in Asia and Africa has resulted in oversupply.
Last week, Shell warned of weakness across multiple divisions, while Exxon Mobil signaled a $1.75 billion drop in fourth-quarter earnings.
BP, which will release fourth quarter results on Feb. 11, expects its net debt at end-December to have fallen from the end of the previous quarter. Exploration write-offs are seen falling by $100 million to $200 million.

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Business

Gold Drops Below Key $4,000 Level as Dollar Firms, Rate Hike Bets Rise

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: FILE PHOTO - Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: FILE PHOTO - Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
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Gold Drops Below Key $4,000 Level as Dollar Firms, Rate Hike Bets Rise

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: FILE PHOTO - Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: FILE PHOTO - Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Gold prices fell more than 3% and traded below a key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce, under pressure from a firmer US dollar and growing expectations of interest rate hikes.

Spot gold fell 3.4% to $3,968.41 an ounce as of 1312 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since November 2025.

US gold futures declined nearly 4% to $3,984.40.

The US dollar firmed, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Traders have ramped up bets on US interest rate hikes this year after the US central bank struck a hawkish tone at its latest policy meeting and as fears of inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran war persist.

"The market pricing a rate hike as soon as September due to a hawkish Fed, a surging dollar at 13-month highs combined with lower inflation expectations are putting heavy pressure on precious metals," Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, said.

"For gold, there is support just under $3,900 and central bank purchases continue, so a collapse is unlikely, but expect a potentially long period of consolidation as the gold trade is now out of favor," he added.

Gold becomes less attractive to investors when interest rates rise because it offers no yield.

Spot gold, which scaled a record peak of $5,594.82 in late January, has since shed over $1,600 an ounce.

ING analysts cut their gold forecasts, now expecting prices to average $4,300 an ounce in the third quarter of 2026 and $4,600 in the fourth, compared with their previous projections of $4,850 and $5,000, respectively, according to Reuters.

Investors are also awaiting US Personal Consumption Expenditures data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, due on Thursday for further signals on the monetary policy outlook.

More hawkish signals from Fed officials or economic data that supports the argument for higher rates may translate to further downside risk for gold, said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM.

Among other metals, spot silver fell 6% to $58.28 per ounce after hitting its lowest level since December 2025.

Platinum lost 4.3% to $1,580.76, and palladium dropped 4.9% to $1,177.50.

 

 

 

Business

Oil Extends Slide to More than 1% on Expectations of Smoother Crude Flows via Hormuz

Storage tanks for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products in Carson, California (Reuters)
Storage tanks for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products in Carson, California (Reuters)
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Oil Extends Slide to More than 1% on Expectations of Smoother Crude Flows via Hormuz

Storage tanks for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products in Carson, California (Reuters)
Storage tanks for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products in Carson, California (Reuters)

Oil prices fell more than 1% on Wednesday, extending this week's losses to hit fresh four-month lows on signs that more oil tankers are set to move out of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures were down $1.37, or 1.8%, at $75.71 a barrel by 0805 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate slipped by $1.08, or 1.5%, to $72.13.

Brent touched a low of $75.60, its weakest level since February 27, the day before the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran. WTI fell as low as $72.03, the weakest since March 3.

"While there are early encouraging signs of increased tanker activity, the market is pricing in the broader scenario of Iranian oil re-entering the global market and the Strait of Hormuz normalising," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

"If sanctions are eased, Iranian production and exports could ramp up relatively quickly given the substantial amount stored on tankers — we are likely talking weeks rather than months," Waterer added, Reuters reported.

Prices have also come under pressure this week from the 60-day sanctions waiver Washington granted Tehran after initial peace talks, allowing Iran to sell oil, and from an easing of hostilities in Lebanon, with prices approaching pre-war levels.

Ship-tracking data showed that three stranded supertankers passed through the strait on Tuesday. The UN shipping agency said an evacuation plan is under way to enable hundreds of stranded ships to sail through the strait after the US-Iran ceasefire deal.

On Tuesday, Oman and Iran agreed to press on with discussions about managing navigation in the strait. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that any attempt by Iran to levy transit fees would violate international law.

Uncertainty remains over the durability of the accord, however. US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Iran had agreed to nuclear inspections into "infinity", though Tehran said it had made no such concession.

"Markets are currently assigning too much confidence to a favorable outcome without fully discounting the risks associated with unresolved nuclear issues and inspection disputes," said Mark Malek, CIO at Siebert Financial.

Investors are also watching how quickly Middle Eastern producers can restore exports and whether more ships will enter the region.

Meanwhile, US crude stocks fell by 765,000 barrels in the week to June 19, market sources said, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute.

Nine analysts polled by Reuters estimated, on average, that crude inventories fell by about 4.5 million barrels in the past week.

Business

Saudi Real Estate Sector Prepares for a New Wave of Foreign Investment

Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh (Digital Government Authority)
Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh (Digital Government Authority)
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Saudi Real Estate Sector Prepares for a New Wave of Foreign Investment

Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh (Digital Government Authority)
Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh (Digital Government Authority)

Saudi Arabia’s real estate market is preparing to enter a new investment phase following the approval of the executive regulations governing property ownership by non-Saudis, a move that strengthens the sector’s appeal to foreign capital and opens the door to broader opportunities across residential, commercial, and hospitality projects.

The sector is expected to benefit from a wider investor base, positioning real estate as one of the key drivers of growth within the Kingdom’s expanding economy.

During its session on Tuesday, the Council of Ministers, chaired by the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz, approved the executive regulations for non-Saudi property ownership and endorsed the geographical zones in which non-Saudis will be permitted to own real estate.

Minister of Municipalities and Housing Majed Al-Hogail said the Cabinet’s approval of the executive regulations and designated ownership zones marks an important step toward launching a new phase for the Saudi real estate market.

The sector is entering a new stage as the impact of the non-Saudi property ownership framework begins to take shape in market activity. Specialists expect the influx of new investments to encourage developers to expand supply and improve the quality of real estate products.

Experts believe the next phase will not be limited to growing demand. It is also expected to intensify competition among projects, enhancing market efficiency and contributing to a stronger balance between supply, demand, and prices.

Stimulating the Market

Khaled Al-Jasser, a real estate specialist and chairman of Amaken International Group, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the move represents a significant boost for the Kingdom’s real estate ecosystem, strengthening investment activity and stimulating market momentum by broadening participation and expanding available opportunities.

According to Al-Jasser, the measure is also expected to increase real estate supply, enhance competitiveness, improve market efficiency, and provide beneficiaries with a wider range of options and more balanced pricing.

The chairman of Amaken International Group added that the initiative enhances the attractiveness of the Saudi real estate market to foreign investors, particularly in light of the Kingdom’s evolving legislative environment and ongoing reforms. These factors support the inflow of foreign capital and reinforce the real estate sector’s position as one of the most promising sectors under the objectives of Vision 2030.

Attracting Capital

For his part, economic analyst Ahmed Al-Shahri told Asharq Al-Awsat that the approval of the executive regulations for non-Saudi property ownership marks a turning point for the market because it addresses a critical issue: transforming real estate from a locally traded asset into a more open investment sector capable of attracting capital.

The significance of the move lies not only in allowing ownership but also in creating a more competitive market capable of attracting developers and investors seeking long-term opportunities in a Saudi economy currently undergoing rapid expansion.

Al-Shahri expects the impact to be reflected in stronger demand for high-quality real estate products, increased appeal of residential, commercial, and hospitality projects, and greater incentives for developers to bring additional supply to market in order to meet the needs of new categories of investors and residents in the Kingdom.

“This means the most significant impact may be seen in the expansion of the market’s overall size, rather than solely in higher prices,” he said.

Price Balance

He continued: “As for prices, the initial phase may support values in the most attractive locations due to the entry of new demand. However, over the medium term, increased supply and stronger competition among developers will serve as an important balancing factor, because a healthy real estate sector is not built on continuous price increases but on the market’s ability to maintain equilibrium between supply and demand.”

Al-Shahri explained that the move could shift the sector from a phase of “product scarcity and rising value” to one defined by “product quality and market competitiveness.” Projects distinguished by location, services, and design will become best positioned to attract investment, while lower-quality developments may face greater pressure to preserve their value.

The non-Saudi property ownership law entered into force on January 22, 2026. The framework consists of 15 articles governing property ownership procedures for foreign individuals, companies, and non-profit entities.