عربي English Türkçe اردو فارسى
Logo
Latest News
Business

Oil Gains Capped by Uncertainty over Sanctions Impact

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
TT
TT

Oil Gains Capped by Uncertainty over Sanctions Impact

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo

Oil prices crept higher on Wednesday as the market focused on potential supply disruptions from sanctions on Russian tankers, though gains were tempered by a lack of clarity on their impact.

Brent crude futures rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $80.08 a barrel by 1250 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 26 cents, or 0.34%, at $77.76.

The latest round of US sanctions on Russian oil could disrupt Russian oil supply and distribution significantly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday, adding that "the full impact on the oil market and on access to Russian supply is uncertain".

A fresh round of sanctions angst seems to be supporting prices, along with the prospect of a weekly US stockpile draw, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, Reuters reported.

"Tankers carrying Russian crude seems to be struggling offloading their cargoes around the world, potentially driving some short-term tightness," he added.

The key question remains how much Russian supply will be lost in the global market and whether alternative measures can offset the , shortfall, said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.

OPEC, meanwhile, expects global oil demand to rise by 1.43 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, maintaining a similar growth rate to 2025, the producer group said on Wednesday.

The 2026 forecast aligns with OPEC's view that oil demand will keep rising for the next two decades. That is in contrast with the IEA, which expects demand to peak this decade as the world shifts to cleaner energy.

The market also found some support from a drop in US crude oil stocks last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute (API) figures on Tuesday.

Crude stocks fell by 2.6 million barrels last week while gasoline inventories rose by 5.4 million barrels and distillates climbed by 4.88 million barrels, API sources said.

A Reuters poll found that analysts expected US crude oil stockpiles to have fallen by about 1 million barrels in the week to Jan. 10. Stockpile data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT).

On Tuesday the EIA trimmed its outlook for global demand in 2025 to 104.1 million barrels per day (bpd) while expecting supply of oil and liquid fuel to average 104.4 million bpd.

It predicted that Brent crude will drop 8% to average $74 a barrel in 2025 and fall further to $66 in 2026 while WTI was projected to average $70 in 2025, dropping to $62 in 2026.

Most Viewed

 
 
Business

IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
TT
TT

IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.

Business

Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
TT
TT

Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.

Business

Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
TT
TT

Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.