Political uncertainty is again looming in France after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou warned that he would use special executive powers this week to get his budget approved without a vote by lawmakers.
The move is expected to trigger a motion of no confidence. Depending on whether political forces across the political board join forces, this could lead to Bayrou’s downfall.
That’s what happened in December, when a confidence motion triggered by budget disputes forced Prime Minister Michel Barnier to resign.
Speaking to La Tribune Dimanche media, Bayrou said he will use a constitutional tool known as Article 49.3, which allows the government to pass legislation without a parliamentary vote but leaves it exposed to confidence motions.
On Monday, French lawmakers are set to debate the conclusions of a joint Parliamentary committee on the state budget and will turn their attention to the social security budget later in the week.
“Now we have to go straight to adoption,” Bayrou said. “A country like ours cannot be without a budget. The only way to do that is to make the government responsible.”
The looming showdown unfolds against the backdrop of a fractured National Assembly, left in disarray after June’s snap elections delivered no clear majority.
President Emmanuel Macron turned to Barnier in September in a bid to navigate the impasse. But Barnier’s proposed austerity budget — slashing 40 billion euros ($42 billion) in spending and raising taxes by 20 billion euros — only deepened divisions, inflaming tensions in the lower house and triggering a dramatic political confrontation.
To seek more stability for his minority government, Bayrou announced in January that he was open to renegotiating a contested plan raising the retirement age from 62 to 64. The government's revised plans for the budget that aim at limiting France's deficit to 5.4% of gross domestic product this year have also addressed concerns from opposition lawmakers.
The joint committee has maintained an extra tax on large companies while increasing a tax on financial transactions. Also, Bayrou kept his commitment not to cut 4,000 jobs in national education, a move that had previously been envisaged.
The far-left party France Unbowed has already announced it will put forward a motion of no confidence that is expected to get the support of Communist and Green lawmakers. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen was instrumental in ousting the previous government — her National Rally party has the largest single group in France’s lower house of parliament — but her party has not given any voting instructions yet.
The vote of the Socialists, who have adopted a constructive approach in recent weeks in negotiating the budget, could be decisive for Bayrou's future. They have said they remain opposed to the government but have pledged to work in the country's interest on budget issues.
“We have obtained a number of reversals from the government and note that the commitments made by the prime minister ... have been honored,” they said in a statement. “However, they remain largely inadequate.”
