Global electricity demand is expected to grow by more than the total consumption of Japan each year through 2027, but the expansion of low-emissions energy sources should help offset the trend, the IEA said in a report on Friday.
Emerging and developing economies are expected to account for 85% of global demand growth, with China forecast to make up more than half of the gains with a 6% growth rate year-on-year to 2027, the IEA report said.
China's power demand has grown faster than its economy since 2020, spurred by a power-hungry industrial sector and the rapid expansion of electricity-intensive manufacturing of solar panels, batteries, EVs and associated materials, the report said.
Air conditioning, data centers and 5G networks are seen as additional contributors.
India is also expected to be a major contributor, accounting for 10% of the global increase, with robust economic activity and rapidly rising air conditioning.
Some advanced economies like the US are seen reversing previously stagnant demand as electrification grows rapidly for sectors like transport, heating and data centers, the IEA said.
Expectations for the European Union were revised down from the IEA's July forecast due to a weaker macroeconomic outlook, falling one percentage point to 1.6% growth expected in 2025.
The bloc is not expected to recover to its 2021 demand level until at least 2027 despite growing in 2024 after two years of flagging demand, the report said.
Low-emissions energy sources such as renewables and nuclear are expected to be able to match global demand growth trends as they continue to edge out coal's share in the power mix, the report said.
Solar is expected to be the second largest low-emissions source in 2027 behind hydropower, while renewables as a whole are expected to eclipse coal-fired generation in 2025 as the polluting resource's share will slip below 33% for the first time in 100 years.
