Marwan Hamadeh to Asharq Al-Awsat: Rifaat Assad Mocked His Brother, Called for Partition of Lebanon, Syria

Marwan Hamadeh speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Aasharq Al-Awsat)
Marwan Hamadeh speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Aasharq Al-Awsat)
TT

Marwan Hamadeh to Asharq Al-Awsat: Rifaat Assad Mocked His Brother, Called for Partition of Lebanon, Syria

Marwan Hamadeh speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Aasharq Al-Awsat)
Marwan Hamadeh speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Aasharq Al-Awsat)

Hafez al-Assad did not settle for ruling Syria with an iron grip—he also sought to control Lebanon, and he got his way.

Throughout the 1980s, there was frequent talk of a second power center in Syria, represented by Rifaat al-Assad, the president’s brother and rival.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, former Lebanese lawmaker and minister Marwan Hamadeh recounts how Rifaat advocated for dividing Syria and Lebanon into sectarian mini-states and shifting alliances from the Soviet Union to the United States and Israel.

“Rifaat was ultimately exiled, but he remained untouchable. They let him leave, taking with him a trove of secrets and betrayals—betrayals against everyone, including his own brother, Hafez. Didn’t he attempt a power grab in 1983?”

“He took advantage of Hafez al-Assad’s illness and hospitalization, deploying tanks and his forces. He commanded a faction much like the sectarian and ideological militias that function as parallel armies,” said Hamadeh when asked about Rifaat.

“Dealing with Hafez al-Assad was inevitable—Lebanon shares borders with both Syria and Israel, and Syria was our gateway to the Arab world. We went to Hafez, but we never imagined we would encounter Rifaat, the man widely believed—along with Air Force Intelligence chief Mohammed al-Khouly—to have orchestrated the assassination of Kamal Jumblatt,” he added.

President Hafez al-Assad and his brother Rifaat in January 1984. (AFP file)

‘You look so much like your father’

“One day in 1983, Rifaat invited us to dinner at a villa in Eastern Mezzeh, not far from the notorious Mezzeh prison. Walid Jumblatt (son of Kamal Jumblatt) and I were stunned. How could we accept the invitation? And how could we refuse? At the time, we were in exile in Damascus during the Mountain War against the Lebanese Forces. As the saying goes, it was an offer we couldn’t refuse. We decided to go but remained extremely cautious,” Hamadeh recounted.

“The atmosphere felt more like a tavern than a formal gathering. Rifaat was heavily intoxicated but spoke freely, rambling without pause. We were eager for the evening to end when he suddenly said, ‘I have some advice for you.’”

According to Hamadeh, Rifaat proceeded and said: “You’re aligning yourselves with my brother, Hafez. That means you’re on the side of the Soviets, against America, and fighting Israel through the national resistance. But why bother? Go strike a deal with the Maronites—give them part of Mount Lebanon, take the southern part for yourselves, and establish your own state. My brother is a fool. We Alawites have the best region—mountains, coastline. We’ll set up our own state there, without all this nonsense. We’ll reconcile with the Americans, sign a peace deal with Israel, and move forward.”

After Rifaat concluded his statement, Hamadeh and Walid nudged each other under the table.

“We knew better than to react—positively or negatively. In Damascus, whether you were in a villa or a hotel, you could be certain that everything was recorded, every word monitored. We said nothing. We finished dinner and left, unharmed—or so we believed. I doubt Rifaat managed to extract anything from us, and I don’t think Hafez’s security services got anything either,” Hamadeh remarked.

Forty days after Kamal Jumblatt’s assassination in 1977, Walid traveled to Damascus to meet Hafez al-Assad, who reportedly told him, “You look so much like your father.”

When asked if the account was true, Hamadeh confirmed.

“The massacre that followed Kamal Jumblatt’s assassination, which targeted Christian civilians in the Chouf, also struck Christian Jumblatt supporters—those who considered themselves leftist or came from families aligned with the Jumblatt camp in the historic Druze rivalry between the Jumblatt and Yazbaki factions. Walid was furious when he realized the killings had reached these communities. He rushed from village to village alongside the Druze spiritual leader, trying to stop the bloodshed. It deeply affected him. He felt he had not only inherited his father’s murder but had also walked into a conspiracy designed to drive an irreversible wedge between the Druze and Christians,” recalled Hamadeh.

“Investigations later revealed the identities of the Syrian operatives behind the assassination. A respected judge from Sidon, Hassan al-Qawas, conducted a thorough probe—his findings remain locked away in Walid Jumblatt’s personal safe and in Lebanon’s Justice Palace, but no action was ever taken against the killers,” he added.

‘Larger conspiracy’

As per Hamadeh, the inquiry found that four Syrian intelligence officers hijacked a Christian man’s car. He escaped and reached Baakline, where he revealed the assassins’ escape route. They had fled toward Jdeideh, in the outskirts of Beirut.

The operation was carried out by Syrian intelligence under the command of Maj. Ibrahim Hweiji, who reported to al-Khouly. The details of the murder became clear.

Walid then gathered his party members and senior Druze clerics, telling them: “I know who killed my father. You know that I know. And I know that you know.”

But he warned them that a larger conspiracy was at play—one aimed at driving the Arab presence out of Mount Lebanon and dismantling the Druze stronghold, either by forcing them into exile in southern Syria’s Jabal al-Arab or pushing them into the sea.

“I cannot let this happen,” Walid told them. “I will go to Syria—it is our only Arab gateway, the only Arab route. I will not turn to Israel, and I refuse to be cast into the sea,” he added.

When he arrived in Damascus, Hafez received him with remarkable courtesy—whether genuine or laced with deception was unclear. The Syrian leader feigned surprise at what had happened, distancing himself from the crime even though it was carried out by his own men.

“You look so much like your father,” Hafez told Walid, before offering reassurances about the fate of the Druze in Mount Lebanon, describing them as the guardians of Arab frontiers since the Crusades.

This initial dialogue opened a narrow pathway for cooperation, which later expanded, particularly after Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon.

In the battles for Beirut, Walid’s forces fought alongside remnants of the Syrian army—specifically the 82nd Brigade, led by Gen. Mohammed Halal, a Sunni officer from Daraa—who, despite limited manpower, resisted the Israeli advance alongside Amal Movement fighters.

Bashar al-Assad and Walid Jumblatt. (AFP file)

‘No chemistry’

Hamadeh touched on the fraught relationship between Walid Jumblatt and Hafez’s successor, Bashar al-Assad, and said:

“The first open rejection of Bashar’s policies by Walid led to a major crisis in 2000. Syria, under Bashar’s leadership and through Lebanese intelligence, launched an all-out electoral war against us—and against Rafik al-Hariri in Beirut. They incited opposition against him, but we won all the seats in Mount Lebanon, and Hariri secured a sweeping victory in Beirut.”

At the same time, Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon.

“Hezbollah realized that Israel was looking to cut its losses and decided to pull out,” Hamadeh said.

“Among Christians, discussions soon followed, leading to the issuance of the Maronite bishops' statement. Their position aligned with ours: if the enemy (Israel) had withdrawn, then the brother (Syria) should also reconsider its presence. The Christian clergy explicitly called for a Syrian military withdrawal. We, on the other hand, took a more measured stance, urging a reduction in Syria’s presence. In parliament, Walid called for a Syrian redeployment,” he added.

This triggered an immediate backlash. Assem Kanso, a former colleague and then-secretary of Lebanon’s Baath Party, accused Walid of treason and called for his execution.

“That was the first major crisis of Bashar’s rule, right at the start of his presidency,” Hamadeh said.

“Frankly, I can say that relations between Walid and Bashar were never good. From their very first meeting, there was simply no chemistry between them,” explained Hamadeh.

“We always knew that Hafez al-Assad was behind decisions involving assassinations and kidnappings. At An-Nahar, we were well aware of the abduction of Michel Abu Jaoudeh.”

“But Hafez’s son, Bashar, was a different story—closed off, detached. He brought his wife from London, projected a modern image, and claimed to be the champion of the internet in the Middle East. Yet within three months, he couldn’t tolerate the cafes and clubs he had allowed to open in Damascus. Do you remember what happened to the intellectuals? He briefly opened the door for them, then slammed it shut. Many ended up in Seydnaya and Tadmur prisons.”

“There was never any chemistry between Bashar and Walid,” Hamadeh reiterated.

Lahoud’s extension

“Bashar began tightening the screws on us, and we started looking for a way out. In 2003, he forced Rafik al-Hariri to reshuffle the government, removing some of his key allies. He then tried to push us out as well, but neither Hariri nor Walid gave in. We remained in the cabinet that oversaw the 2004 presidential election. At the time, Hariri had famously declared, ‘I would cut off my hand before extending Emile Lahoud’s term.’ Walid shared the same conviction.”

“We spoke with Bashar, who tried to offer reassurances, but we knew he was orchestrating Lahoud’s extension. There were figures with strong ties to Syria, though not necessarily to Bashar—people like Jean Obeid, who had broad Arab and international acceptance, particularly in the Gulf. But Bashar refused to consider anyone other than Lahoud.”

“Tensions escalated significantly at that point, coinciding with a rare alignment between the US and France on expelling Syria from Lebanon.”

“Resolution 1559 was the product of a US-French understanding, and Michel Aoun had played a role in its preparation before striking a deal with the Syrians to secure his return from exile and eventually become president,” said Hamadeh.

“In February 2004, I traveled to Brussels as acting foreign minister. At the time, we had suspended executions to maintain our standing with Europe, which opposed the death penalty. I gave assurances to that effect—an agreement that remains in place today. After leaving a Lebanon-Europe conference, the Dutch foreign minister, who chaired the meeting, told me: ‘You have succeeded this time as a good lawyer for a losing case.’”

“I had promised that we would not amend the constitution regarding capital punishment, a move that sparked controversy back home. We held annual conferences with Europe—one economic, which I had organized in November, and another political, attended by foreign ministers. I stepped in for Jean Obeid, who told me he was planning an African tour and wanted to avoid embarrassment, as the Syria issue would be raised in the conference.”

“The Dutch minister then delivered a stark message: ‘You got through this year, but next year, there will be only one item on the agenda: Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon.’”

Rafik al-Hariri (C), Walid Jumblatt (L) and Nabih Berri.

‘Break Lebanon over your head’

“The decision had already been made between the Americans and their allies—before Rafik al-Hariri even knew about it. When he did, he seemed encouraged, believing it meant Emile Lahoud’s term would not be extended and that Lebanon could shift away from Syria’s grip, particularly as Hezbollah’s growing military and security presence was becoming intolerable.”

“That August, Hariri, [parliament Speaker] Nabih Berri, and Walid Jumblatt were summoned to Damascus. Syrian intelligence chief in Lebanon Rustum Ghazaleh visited them, informing them that President Bashar al-Assad expected them at a meeting the next morning at 9 a.m.”

“Jumblatt refused outright. Berri agreed to go. Hariri hesitated, but Ghazaleh pressed him, insisting that as Lebanon’s prime minister, his presence was mandatory,” said Hamadeh. “When Ghazaleh made another attempt to persuade Jumblatt, his response was unequivocal: ‘I will not go.’”

“The meeting between Hariri and Assad reportedly lasted just 10 minutes, with Hariri standing the entire time. According to reports, Assad bluntly told him: ‘You want to change Lebanon’s face. You want to impose a president. You want to force us out. I will break Lebanon over your head, over Walid Jumblatt’s head, and over Jacques Chirac’s head.’”

Hariri returned to Walid Jumblatt’s residence in Clemenceau, Beirut, where Hamadeh was waiting alongside MP Bassem al-Sabaa. He recounted what had transpired with Bashar.

According to Hamadeh, Jumblatt told him: “You voted for Lahoud’s extension because they would have killed you otherwise.”

Hariri responded: “And you?”

Jumblatt replied: “I’m going to the mountains to save myself.”

That’s exactly what happened. Hariri, however, could not come to terms with the situation.

“We—the three Progressive Socialist Party ministers and Fares Boueiz—resigned instead of voting. Jean Obeid, meanwhile, did not attend, but in the end, they forced him to be counted as present. He refused to go, yet they ordered Cabinet Secretary-General Suheil Bouji to record his attendance,” said Hamadeh.

“Hariri ultimately gave in and attended the extension session, where he cast his vote in favor. A list of 29 MPs who rejected Lahoud’s extension was published—an honor roll of dissent,” he added.

“From that list, they picked me. In October 2004, I was targeted in an assassination attempt. Three-and-a-half months later, Hariri was assassinated.”

“On February 14, 2005, I was at An-Nahar newspaper, meeting European Ambassador Patrick Renaud. I still remember his name vividly because of what happened next. We heard a massive explosion—a real tremor. Initially, we thought it might have been an arms depot detonating.”

“We immediately started calling Clemenceau, where Jumblatt was, and Qoreitem, Hariri’s residence. By then, Jumblatt had already rushed to the American University Hospital,” recounted Hamadeh.

“You ask if I was targeted because of my close ties to both men? Without a doubt. Perhaps the goal was to eliminate me ahead of the elections—to ensure I would not run. Maybe they thought: this one can be dealt with. They had a candidate lined up against me, but he always lost. That time, however, there was no election—I won unopposed because of the assassination attempt.”

Syrian withdrawal

Hamadeh’s friendship with Hariri and his unique position allowed him to mediate whenever tensions arose with Walid Jumblatt—whether over economic policies that Walid disagreed with or other matters.

“I always stepped in to reconcile them, preserving and strengthening their alliance,” said Hamadeh. “Over 15 to 20 years, their relationship evolved into a genuine friendship. They stood together on everything—from security and economic policies to building hospitals. It was a true partnership, and I was one of its guardians,” he remembered.

“After Hariri’s assassination, Walid wept for him—and perhaps for Lebanon as well. He feared Syria’s grip would tighten, with a Syrian-backed president in Lahoud and a government under Omar Karami, handpicked by Damascus,” said Hamadeh.

The March 14 mass protest—sparked by Hariri’s killing—was a revelation for Walid. He realized that the momentum created by Hariri’s blood would ultimately force Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon.

“Yet, Walid was also wary. He knew that politics is a cycle of ebb and flow—that the victory could eventually turn against us. Our immediate goal was to remove Lahoud from the presidency, and Walid was eager to push him out,” added Hamadeh.

“However, when Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir opposed the move, insisting the president should serve out his term, we had to adjust our course. This led us to commit a serious mistake—the 2005 Quadripartite Agreement with Hezbollah,” he added.

When asked if he accused the Syrian regime of attempting to assassinate him, Hamadeh said: “And Hezbollah as well. I have the indictment right here on my desk, detailing everything.”

He alleged that all assassination operations were led by a unit commanded by Hezbollah member Imad Mughniyeh, but the actual executor was Mustafa Badreddine, known by the alias Sami Issa.

“Badreddine lived in Jounieh under a Christian name. He owned a jewelry shop, had a yacht, and moved within the city’s elite circles, surrounded by wealthy acquaintances.”

Among the operatives, he pointed to Salim Jamil Ayyash, who was convicted in absentia for Hariri’s assassination.

“The others are dead—Imad Mughniyeh was killed early on, and Badreddine was assassinated later. Under international law, they can no longer be pursued,” said Hamadeh.

He emphasized that while Syria facilitated the assassinations, the decision and execution originated in Tehran and ended in Hezbollah’s stronghold of Haret Hreik in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Rafik al-Hariri (L) and Marwan Hamadeh seated at parliament. (Courtesy of Marwan Hamadeh)

Arab Syria

When asked about his feelings upon arriving in Damascus and finding interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa sitting in the chair once occupied by both Bashar and Hafez al-Assad, Hamadeh reflected:

“The whole trip stirred emotions. Crossing from the Al-Masnaa border to Jdeidet Yabous, not through military checkpoints or Syrian intelligence, felt different. The road was clear, with no scrutiny, and there were no statues or inscriptions declaring 'Assad forever' along the way. All the military barracks were either destroyed or abandoned. As you approach Damascus, you feel like you’re stepping back into the times of the Umayyads and Abbasids, returning to the heart of Arab Syria.”

He continued, describing the route to the presidential palace: “It reminded me that Hariri was the one who built this palace, funded by Saudi Arabia. But today, you arrive at the palace and find no guards until you reach the gates. Upon entering, you're welcomed by a young man exuding wisdom, calm, and rationality. He may not act on everything he says, but you feel his clear vision.”

Reflecting on al-Sharaa’s character, Hamadeh noted: “I found in al-Sharaa a blend of revolutionary spirit and leadership. He wants to quickly shift Syria from an era of factions to a republic, from the time of divisions to the time of the state. Syria is still fragmented, with issues like the Kurdish and Druze concerns that we raised, but thankfully, progress is being made. He’s cautious about the Alawites, fearing reprisals from his own people, but insists, ‘We have nothing against the Alawites.’ A significant portion of them opposed the Assad regime.”

He added that al-Sharaa believed that the people of Damascus, and Syria more broadly, should not be blamed for events that transpired over 1,400 years ago. He saw the situation as a political accident, the weight of which has been unfairly placed on entire communities, even to this day.

As he reflected on the tension between Syria and Iran, Hamadeh also recalled how al-Sharaa's forces rapidly swept through the country in a lightening campaign that ousted Assad in December.

“I asked how they managed to travel from Aleppo to Damascus in just three days. He explained, ‘We didn’t breach military borders. The people opened the roads for us. The people of Hama and Homs welcomed us, their only concern was to avoid further bloodshed.’ They started by freeing prisoners, allowing people to breathe before they liberated government buildings or military establishments like the Ministry of Defense,” said Hamadeh.

“This was very reminiscent of what happened when Kamal Jumblatt was assassinated, with some blaming the Christian community, even though it was the Syrian regime behind the murder,” he added.

When asked about his surprise that Syria was now free of Iranian influence, Hamadeh said: “What surprised me was that Syria is now in the hands of its people, without a security state. The former security apparatus would target anyone, even those with minimal connections to the Assad regime. That was al-Sharaa's main concern—ensuring this didn’t happen. There are still employees from the Assad era who remain today.”

Optimism

He was then asked about his feelings when conducting the interview at An-Nahar newspaper’s building, a publication with a long history of clashes with the Assad regime. Hamadeh said: “Our newspaper was bombed, occupied, and its editor-in-chief Michel Abu Ghida was kidnapped. He was later freed with the help of Yasser Arafat and Kamal Jumblatt through mediation with Hafez al-Assad and Hikmat al-Shihabi. They tried to assassinate Gebran Tueni when he was still young. They came back, occupied our office, seized the archives, and took the entire newspaper’s records. For almost 20 days, we, along with other media outlets, were in a state of siege. From that point, we were all in the same cage.”

Hamadeh continued, recounting the tragic story: “The rest of the story is well known. They assassinated journalist and writer Samir Kassir, then they killed Tueni. We tried to send him abroad for safety, but he refused. They also attempted to bankrupt the newspaper. Hariri had a stake in An-Nahar, and they pressured him to sell it. Assad himself personally imposed this. We didn’t have the funds to buy his shares, but Hariri crafted a deal, delaying the payment until after the election of a new president, with the understanding that Lahoud wouldn’t be re-elected and that Lebanon would finally be free from Syrian pressure. But that never happened. After Hariri’s assassination, the deal was torn up.”

When asked about the election of Gen. Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s president and the formation of a government led by Nawaf Salam, Hamadeh expressed optimism for Lebanon’s future.

“The opportunity came before they were chosen. It arose from their profiles—one preserved the army, and the other preserved his dignity and knowledge. They brought forward a Lebanese movement that wasn’t originally coordinated, but it translated into a popular wave,” he remarked. “We’ve returned to the Arab fold. As soon as the new president was elected, we knew we had emerged from the cage into the embrace of the Arab world. This marks the difference between the Assad regime and the systems they used to attack, which have proven to be more progressive than them.”



In Taiwan, Jensen Huang’s ‘Flawless’ Image Damaged by Affairs

Photos of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang during a previous visit are displayed at a local snack shop in Taipei on November 13, 2026. (AFP)
Photos of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang during a previous visit are displayed at a local snack shop in Taipei on November 13, 2026. (AFP)
TT

In Taiwan, Jensen Huang’s ‘Flawless’ Image Damaged by Affairs

Photos of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang during a previous visit are displayed at a local snack shop in Taipei on November 13, 2026. (AFP)
Photos of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang during a previous visit are displayed at a local snack shop in Taipei on November 13, 2026. (AFP)

Taiwan-born Jensen Huang, the former boss of Nvidia, was feted like a rock star on visits to his birthplace, posing for selfies with fans and being mobbed by journalists.

His spectacular downfall might change that.

Huang's once "flawless" image in Taiwan has been shattered by revelations of two extramarital affairs -- including one with a woman accused of being a Chinese spy -- that forced him to resign from the company he founded.

"I thought he had the persona of a devoted husband, and it turns out he's kind of a scumbag," Ivan Liang, 28, told AFP during his lunch break on Friday.

Huang has been a source of pride and inspiration for many Taiwanese. While other tech titans kept a low profile, Huang was chatty and charming in public, readily signing autographs and posing for photos.

"I definitely think my perception of him has changed because, after all, he originally had that 'nation's dad' image," said Leo Fu, a 42-year-old import distributor.

"I feel like that image of him has probably taken a hit in the eyes of the general public in Taiwan."

Dessert shop owner Jane Hsieh, 70, still has fond memories of Huang visiting her store on multiple occasions for one of her traditional tofu puddings.

"Before this, he felt like such a flawless person," Hsieh told AFP in her shop where photos of her and her husband posing with the leather-jacketed Huang, his wife Lori, and son Spencer, are proudly displayed.

"It's just a shame because he gave everyone the impression that he was a really great guy, and he was always very polite when he came here," she said.

While her feelings about Huang have changed as a result of the affairs, Hsieh said she would not remove the photos from her shop.

"Why kick someone when they're down?" she said.

- 'Pretty outrageous' -

At the Chinese restaurant where one of Huang's lovers -- identified as suspected Chinese spy Alice Huang -- was filmed kissing him on the cheek in May 2025, a plate signed by Huang on the same night is still on display.

Staff were reluctant to talk about the infamous evening to AFP on Friday, only saying they were always focused on serving their customers.

"I think it's pretty outrageous," 38-year-old Chen Yu-ting, who works in finance, said of Huang's affair with someone believed to have spied for Beijing.

"If the other person really was trying to use him, it seems like he was just way too easily deceived," she said.

"Given his status, he really should be paying much closer attention to the people around him and who he associates with."

While Huang's affairs have tarnished his reputation, some Taiwanese are more concerned about the impact the scandal could have on Taiwan's economy and stock market.

Huang has generated huge amounts of wealth for the island at the centre of the global artificial intelligence (AI) technology boom.

Nvidia's advanced chips critical to the AI buildout are made by Taiwanese tech titan TSMC and have helped drive Taiwans' stocks to record highs and push its economy into double-digit growth.

Ivan Liang, who works in imports and exports, said he was "very worried".

"The market crashed... a few days ago, and then Nvidia's stock price just kept dropping and dropping and dropping," Liang said.

"I don't trade US stocks myself, but the US and Taiwan stock markets definitely move in tandem and affect each other," he said.

"Whatever he does is none of my business -- I only care about my money."


Can One Security Force Implement Resolution 1701 and the Framework Agreement in Southern Lebanon?

A UNIFIL military vehicle patrols the southern Lebanese town of Ibl al-Saqi (AFP)
A UNIFIL military vehicle patrols the southern Lebanese town of Ibl al-Saqi (AFP)
TT

Can One Security Force Implement Resolution 1701 and the Framework Agreement in Southern Lebanon?

A UNIFIL military vehicle patrols the southern Lebanese town of Ibl al-Saqi (AFP)
A UNIFIL military vehicle patrols the southern Lebanese town of Ibl al-Saqi (AFP)

Countries involved in Lebanon are considering a security force to replace the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) when its mandate expires at year-end.

The force would support the Lebanese army in implementing agreements and international resolutions in southern Lebanon. But can a new force enforce both UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and the US-brokered framework agreement between Lebanon and Israel?

Talks have produced broad agreement on the need for such a force, but its composition, mandate, operating procedures and participating countries remain undecided.

The uncertainty was reflected in a statement by Group of Seven foreign ministers after their Nov. 9-10 meeting in Paris. They called for a robust, credible, and long-lasting security architecture in Lebanon to support the Lebanese Armed Forces, in line with Resolution 1701 and to advance implementation of the Trilateral Framework.

No further agreements were announced.

US envoy to visit Beirut

Attention now turns to a visit to Beirut on Monday by US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz, who is due to meet with President Joseph Aoun.

Recent media reports suggest Washington is moving to replace UNIFIL in southern Lebanon with a verification committee and substitute the framework agreement for Resolution 1701.

The resolution ended a 33-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. Its main provisions included an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and the deployment of additional UN troops to monitor the cessation of hostilities alongside the Lebanese army.

Lebanon, Israel and the United States signed the Trilateral Framework Agreement in Washington on June 26, setting out a phased process to end the conflict and restore Lebanese sovereignty over the country's entire territory.

Under the agreement, the Lebanese army would gradually assume security control of designated "pilot zones" as non-state armed groups are disarmed and their military infrastructure dismantled, paving the way for a phased Israeli withdrawal.

The agreement also calls for a US-backed military coordination group to oversee and verify implementation.

It remains unclear whether separate international forces would replace UNIFIL and oversee the framework agreement, whether the two mandates could be merged, or whether Resolution 1701 would be dropped in favor of the agreement, with a single force assigned to implement it.

'Complicated' transition

A diplomatic source described the situation as "complicated," saying the current transition differs from the circumstances surrounding Resolution 1701.

At the time, a new military and political reality had emerged that the parties sought to preserve, the source told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Today, the source said, the mandate, powers, composition and operating procedures of any force replacing UNIFIL remain unclear.

The framework agreement also presents a legal obstacle.

"It is an understanding between three parties and cannot be imposed on the international community or assumed to have its automatic endorsement," the source said.

Turning it into a Security Council resolution would be difficult, the source added, because some member states could object.

Israel's position

Israel appears reluctant to accept a new international force to replace UNIFIL, which it accuses of having allowed Hezbollah to expand toward its border.

According to details emerging from recent negotiations over the framework agreement's implementation, Israel wants direct oversight of efforts to verify that the pilot zones are free of Hezbollah weapons and military infrastructure.

It favors a mechanism giving it a continuing monitoring and operational role rather than relying on reports from an independent international body.

Fundamental differences

Military and strategic expert Brigadier General Khalil Helou said UNIFIL's departure would render Resolution 1701 meaningless, effectively allowing the framework agreement to take its place.

"Resolution 1701 contains clear provisions and has a legal dimension, unlike the US-sponsored framework agreement, which requires negotiations to implement each of its provisions," Helou told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Merging the two would therefore be difficult, he said.

The framework agreement also makes no provision for foreign forces to implement it. Instead, it outlines understandings between Lebanon and Israel, with a military annex setting out reciprocal steps, he added.

Legal obstacles

Legally, a single force could implement both Resolution 1701 and the framework agreement. But constitutional and legal expert Adel Yamin said the nature of its mandate would pose further obstacles.

"Verifying disarmament is more intrusive than providing conventional support to the army," Yamin told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Such a mission could require clearer rules of engagement, raising questions about the host state's consent, he said.

Yamin also cited reports that Israel opposed an international force including French troops and that Washington considered Resolution 1701 obsolete, favoring the framework agreement as a basis for direct communication between the Lebanese and Israeli militaries.

One option, he said, would be a UN force or mission to implement Resolution 1701 alongside a multinational mechanism to oversee the framework agreement.

But that would risk overlapping powers and conflicting reports.

UN umbrella for framework agreement

International efforts are also being discussed to bring the framework agreement under UN auspices, potentially superseding Resolution 1701.

Yamin outlined several legal routes.

One would be to register the agreement with the UN Secretariat under Article 102 of the UN Charter, provided it qualifies as a treaty.

Registration would not give the agreement effective UN backing but would allow it to be invoked before UN bodies, he said.

Another option would be for the parties to send identical letters seeking Security Council endorsement, followed by a presidential statement or resolution welcoming the agreement.

The council could also endorse the agreement and annex it to a resolution, or establish a new force or expand an existing mandate to implement it, following the model of the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

But Yamin warned that UN backing would be a double-edged sword.

It would internationalize Israel's withdrawal obligations rather than leave them dependent solely on US guarantees. At the same time, it would place Lebanon's commitments to bring weapons under exclusive state control under tighter international scrutiny.

Yamin also cautioned against incorporating into a UN resolution any provisions that could cast doubt on Israel's obligation to withdraw immediately from Lebanon.

Such provisions should not gain international legal cover, he said, arguing that any clause undermining Lebanon's sovereignty or territorial integrity would violate both the UN Charter and the Lebanese Constitution and would be automatically void.


Saudi Arabia in Times of Crisis: Three Centuries of Sovereignty and Independent Decision-Making

Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (SPA)
Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (SPA)
TT

Saudi Arabia in Times of Crisis: Three Centuries of Sovereignty and Independent Decision-Making

Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (SPA)
Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (SPA)

Anyone who traces the history of the modern Saudi state will recognize that the threats and challenges it faces today are not fundamentally new, even if their methods and circumstances have changed. For three centuries, Saudi Arabia has upheld its sovereignty and independence in decision-making.

From the earliest stages of unification, King Abdulaziz bin Abdulrahman faced internal and external challenges as he built the state. Among the most dangerous were those that arose between 1927 and 1934, when domestic rebellions became intertwined with foreign threats, nearly plunging the country into crises on several fronts.

These included the rebellion of certain Ikhwan leaders who had previously been among the most prominent participants in the country's unification. Their disagreements with King Abdulaziz, rooted in their misguided interpretations of religious matters, the authority of the state, control over military raids and relations with neighboring countries, eventually escalated into armed confrontation. The conflict culminated in the Battle of Sabilla in 1929, before the rebellion was finally suppressed in 1930.

In the northern Hejaz, Hamid bin Rafadah led a rebellion in 1932 that was linked to opposition activities and backed by outside parties.

The south witnessed an Idrisi rebellion that same year, aimed at restoring the family's former influence. The rebels exploited border disputes with Yemen and received support from Imam Yahya, developments that later contributed to the Saudi-Yemeni War of 1934.

King Abdulaziz bin Abdulrahman (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Early Threats

The danger posed by these crises lay not only in their succession and occasional overlap, but also in their geographical reach, extending from the country's central and eastern regions to its northern and southern borders.

Tribal, political and religious motivations became entangled with the calculations of neighboring powers.

These events unfolded as Italy competed with Britain for influence in the Red Sea. Rome supported Imam Yahya's activities, opposed Saudi sovereignty over territories formerly controlled by the Idrisis and backed their rebellion, despite the signing of the Saudi-Italian Treaty of Friendship in February 1932.

King Abdulaziz, however, did not consider these developments sufficient grounds for severing relations.

While responding decisively with military force to the rebellion and Imam Yahya's actions once peaceful options had been exhausted, he also pursued diplomacy to neutralize external parties and subsequently settled disputes through treaties designed to preserve the state's stability.

He thus succeeded in overcoming one of the most complex periods in the Kingdom's formative history.

At the time, the emerging state faced the simultaneous challenges of consolidating its authority at home and securing recognition of its borders, sovereignty and independent decision-making abroad, while colonial powers competed for influence across the region.

King Abdulaziz confronted other challenges and crises in an exceptionally complicated regional and international environment.

What distinguished his political approach, however, was his ability to understand the balance of power and benefit from international relations without allowing those relationships to compromise his freedom of decision or undermine the state's fundamental interests.

These events illustrate a policy that distinguishes between managing disagreements and protecting national interests.

Differences with an international power need not result in severing relations, just as maintaining relations with that power does not require surrendering rights or sovereignty.

That approach continued under successive kings as state institutions developed and foreign relations expanded.

Over time, successive experiences helped build a body of expertise in crisis management that extended beyond wars and security threats to encompass economic disruptions, political transformations, waves of terrorism and other crises.

Each brought challenges that required the development of national institutions, systems and capabilities.

It is therefore nothing new for Saudi Arabia to face political and security threats involving overlapping regional and international interests, or challenges whose objectives and consequences extend beyond the immediate incidents through which they emerge.

Throughout the nearly three-century history of the Saudi state, it has experienced various forms of conflict and attempts to influence its decisions and positions.

The sources and methods of these threats have changed, but protecting national security and preserving independent decision-making have remained fundamental principles of Saudi policy.

The Current Attacks

The developments unfolding in the region today, including attacks against Saudi Arabia by the terrorist Houthi militia and other groups, together with the accompanying international positions and media commentary, require a broader understanding of the situation.

These incidents cannot be assessed solely through their immediate military consequences.

An attack on a civilian facility or critical infrastructure, however serious, may be one manifestation of a wider crisis involving several parties whose interests and objectives differ, even if their positions sometimes produce similar outcomes.

The attacks targeting Saudi cities in recent weeks offer an example of the nature of these challenges.

Threats have extended to airports and civilian and economic facilities, with consequences reaching beyond physical damage and defense costs.

They have also involved attempts to disrupt transportation, economic activity and the public's sense of security and stability.

Understanding these attacks therefore requires examining more than the weapons used. It also calls for assessing their political objectives and the potential pressure they seek to exert beyond the battlefield.

The broader political environment surrounding such incidents deserves close scrutiny, particularly when security threats form part of a wider situation involving economic interests, international alliances and political choices.

Historically, the challenges facing Saudi Arabia have not been exclusively military or political.

At various times, some parties have sought to exploit the Kingdom's religious standing and its responsibilities toward the Two Holy Mosques for political purposes, despite the principle that religious rituals and sacred sites should remain outside political conflicts.

Certain actors have attempted to undermine Saudi Arabia's standing and its service to the Two Holy Mosques by turning these responsibilities into instruments of political pressure.

Terrorist attacks against Saudi security can also be understood from this perspective, particularly when they involve areas or facilities connected to services for Hajj and Umrah pilgrims and other visitors.

Examples include missile attacks targeting the Makkah and Madinah regions and attacks on King Khalid International Airport.

Allies' Calculations

Setting aside the religious and moral dimensions, and recognizing these attacks as forms of military and security threats, the political and international developments surrounding them reveal another layer of complexity in the crises states confront.

Strategic relationships, however strong and deeply rooted, do not guarantee permanent alignment of interests and positions.

Partners may differ in their assessments of the nature of a threat, the appropriate means of confronting it or the extent of the support they are prepared to provide.

This does not diminish the importance of the alliances Saudi Arabia has built over many decades.

Those relationships have contributed to political, economic and defense cooperation and remain an important component of the Kingdom's foreign policy.

But partnership, in political terms, does not mean surrendering freedom of decision. Nor do differing calculations during a particular crisis eliminate the shared interests on which relations between states are founded.

Here lies one of the most complicated challenges.

A country may face a security threat that requires cooperation with its partners while simultaneously confronting political choices or arrangements whose consequences and duration extend far beyond addressing that immediate threat.

This dilemma may emerge in two directions.

An adversary may seek, by attacking civilian facilities, to push Riyadh toward settlements that do not serve its interests or to use Saudi Arabia as a means of relieving pressure on other parties.

Conversely, others may seek to draw the Kingdom into a broader regional conflict whose scope and conclusion it cannot determine on its own.

Independent decision-making means rejecting both possibilities.

Under such circumstances, preserving the freedom to make sovereign decisions becomes an essential part of crisis management.

The need to confront an immediate danger must not become a reason to accept strategic commitments that are not justified by national interests.

The point is that managing crises in a world of intertwined interests involves more than confronting adversaries.

It also requires managing differences with partners, maintaining a range of options and avoiding dependence on the calculations of any single party, regardless of the importance of that relationship.

Media Pressure

Alongside these developments, various analyses and arguments have emerged concerning the attacks and threats facing Saudi Arabia.

Some link them to the future of the Kingdom's economic and development projects, its ability to maintain stability and attract investment and tourism, or the implications for its international relationships and political choices.

It is natural for these issues to attract attention from the media and research centers.

Saudi Arabia's religious, political and economic significance, its extensive economic and development transformation, and the secure and stable environment required by its major projects make attacks on airports and critical infrastructure particularly newsworthy.

Yet some interpretations, especially in the media, tend to focus on the immediate scale of the threats before drawing conclusions about the Saudi government's ability to preserve its political and strategic choices.

Such assessments often fail to give sufficient weight to the historical experience of the Saudi state and its institutions, or to the resources, capabilities and international relationships at its disposal.

This tendency is evident in analyses that treat security attacks as a direct indication that the state's options are narrowing.

Others assume that escalating threats will inevitably compel Saudi Arabia to adjust its political positions according to what other parties consider appropriate responses to the crisis.

The problem is not in examining these possibilities, which is a legitimate part of analysis, but in treating them as inevitable outcomes.

It is equally problematic to measure a state's capacity to manage a crisis solely by the damage it sustains during a particular period.

Political history offers no basis for assuming that states necessarily change their strategic choices whenever they encounter military or economic challenges.

Likewise, maintaining a particular political position does not mean ignoring changing circumstances or refusing to reconsider the methods used to achieve national objectives.

King Faisal bin Abdulaziz (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Limits of Coercion

An important distinction must be drawn between the ability to inflict damage and the ability to dictate decisions.

An armed terrorist group may succeed in threatening critical infrastructure or disrupting certain activities, but that does not mean it has acquired the power to determine the political choices of the state it targets.

Nor does producing an economic or media impact necessarily amount to achieving strategic objectives.

One of the defining features of Saudi Arabia's experience is that crisis management is no longer confined to a limited set of options or temporary responses.

As state institutions have developed, crisis management has become a coordinated effort involving multiple agencies, each with its own responsibilities and areas of expertise.

This enables the state to address crises across their security, economic, social and political dimensions.

Elements of this accumulated expertise have been demonstrated throughout Saudi history.

The relevant question is not how many crises the Kingdom has faced, but how it has overcome them and continued its course while political systems elsewhere changed, balances of power shifted and the calculations of major powers proved mistaken.

Consider, for example, the 1960s, when Saudi Arabia confronted one of the most dangerous and perhaps most complicated crises in its modern history.

An internal struggle over the monarchy, which ended with King Faisal assuming power in 1964, coincided with the rise of Nasserism and the ideological conflict sweeping the Arab world.

The confrontation extended beyond media campaigns and political incitement.

The Kingdom experienced attacks along its borders, as well as a wave of bombings and sabotage targeting security, military and oil installations.

These included the Trans-Arabian Pipeline, known as Tapline, and sites in Riyadh, Dammam and Khamis Mushait.

There were also attempts to infiltrate the military establishment and plot coups.

Saudi leaders confronted these dangers while reorganizing the institutions of government and the state, building military and security capabilities, and continuing development projects.

They did so within international alliances that offered no absolute guarantees, and amid repeated political efforts to contain the war in Yemen that did not always succeed.

Throughout these challenges, independent Saudi decision-making remained a consistent policy.

An example of this approach to external pressure and security threats can be found in a US diplomatic document dated August 11, 1965.

According to the document, Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz, then Minister of Defense and Aviation, summoned Talcott W. Seelye, the US chargé d'affaires in Jeddah, to a meeting attended by Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed Ibrahim Masoud.

Acting on King Faisal's instructions, Prince Sultan outlined the threats facing Saudi territory.

When the American side made the deployment of fighter aircraft to help deter attacks conditional on specific requirements, Prince Sultan responded decisively that Riyadh did not want American assistance if it came with such conditions.

This did not represent a rejection of cooperation with Washington.

Rather, it was a refusal to allow a request for military support to become a constraint on Saudi political decision-making, even in the face of direct threats to national security.

Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Arab defeat in June 1967 subsequently transformed the regional balance of power.

Yet King Faisal did not treat the weakened position of his former adversaries as an opportunity to settle scores.

Instead, he moved beyond the dispute with Egypt and contributed to supporting it in the aftermath of the war.

This is what makes that period significant.

Saudi Arabia confronted threats to its security, borders, political stability and economic interests, but managed those challenges without allowing them to undermine the state's unity or stability.

Indeed, it emerged with greater strength and standing.

The crises of the 1970s followed, including the Iranian Revolution, the seizure of the Grand Mosque in Makkah and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

These developments confronted the Kingdom with security and ideological challenges, as well as strategic transformations whose consequences would endure for decades.

They were followed by the Iran-Iraq War and the pressures of the 1980s, which tested the Saudi economy's ability to sustain development spending amid economic and security challenges.

Alliances Put to the Test

Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 posed an equally serious crisis.

Saudi Arabia faced a direct military threat to its borders and oil installations, ballistic missile attacks against cities and critical infrastructure, and an Iraqi incursion into the city of Khafji.

The Kingdom also encountered political pressure arising from divisions within the Arab world and the repercussions of bringing in international forces to liberate Kuwait.

Economically, the Saudi treasury bore the costs of the war, hosting military forces and supporting affected countries, with expenditures estimated at approximately $55 billion.

The budget deficit rose to 17% of gross domestic product in 1991.

The threats became severe enough to force the closure of several airports, including those in Riyadh and Dhahran, the suspension of civilian flights and the imposition of military restrictions on Saudi airspace.

These measures were not evidence that the state was incapable of protecting its skies.

They were responses to exceptional wartime circumstances, a distinction that must be remembered when assessing current threats.

This applies particularly to the suspension of operations at King Khalid International Airport, without confusing the existence of a threat with the ability to confront it.

The challenges did not end with Kuwait's liberation.

Security and financial commitments continued, while the consequences of the war placed pressure on government spending and development for years afterward.

Liberating Kuwait ended the occupation, but it did not eliminate the financial burdens borne by Riyadh or the political and security repercussions of the conflict.

The Kingdom was therefore confronting more than a war on its borders.

It faced a test of its ability to protect national security, manage alliances and shoulder the burdens of regional stability without losing its internal cohesion.

Confronting Terrorism

The September 11, 2001, attacks placed Riyadh in the midst of one of its most complicated political and media crises.

Its relationship with Washington faced an unprecedented test, accompanied by campaigns casting doubt on Saudi Arabia and pressure for reform and change.

These developments coincided with an international war on terrorism that soon reached Saudi territory through terrorist attacks targeting the state's security, facilities, citizens and residents.

The consequences of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 were no less serious.

The regional balance of power was disrupted, creating greater opportunities for Iranian influence.

Amid these developments, concepts such as "creative chaos" and the "New Middle East" gained prominence, while maps emerged proposing the redrawing of regional borders, including the partition of Saudi Arabia itself.

Yet the state that confronted terrorism at home and political and media pressure abroad did not allow these crises to dictate its choices.

It preserved its stability and territorial integrity while the wider region continued for years to bear the costs of wars and attempts to reshape its political landscape.

Arab Transformations

The events of the so-called Arab Spring in 2011 brought a different set of challenges.

These were not merely protests that toppled Arab governments, but transformations that threatened regional balances, opened the door to internal conflicts and foreign interventions, and facilitated the rise of extremist organizations.

Saudi leaders faced unrest in Bahrain, a gradual political and security collapse in Yemen, political transformations in Egypt, and wars in Syria and Libya.

There were also attempts to exploit those events to foment unrest inside Saudi Arabia.

The Kingdom had to confront the consequences of these transformations, preserve its own security and stability, and support stability in other Arab countries while regional alliances and balances of power were being reshaped.

The striking aspect was not merely that Saudi Arabia weathered this wave of upheaval.

It also came to shoulder part of the political, security and economic burdens left by crises across its Arab neighborhood.

If Saudi Arabia, with fewer resources at its disposal, managed to overcome those challenges while preserving its stability and independent political decision-making, it is today better equipped to confront new threats under the leadership of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman.

The Kingdom now possesses greater capabilities, stronger institutions and extensive international alliances.

What some analyses overlook is that the existence of a threat does not necessarily indicate weakness on the part of the state.

Nor does the reluctance of some partners to become directly involved undermine this argument. On the contrary, it reinforces it.

Such reluctance offers practical evidence that a country's security cannot be left to the calculations of others, and that even the strongest partnerships remain subject to each partner's priorities and domestic considerations.

A state confident in its capabilities does not base its decisions on waiting for support that may arrive or be delayed.

It relies instead on its own resources and uses international relationships to expand its options, not as substitutes for them.

Recalling these historical experiences is not intended to equate different crises.

Each has its own characteristics and requires its own methods of response.

The point is to demonstrate that accumulated expertise in crisis management depends on understanding the various consequences of a crisis rather than addressing only one of its manifestations, while preserving the ability of the state and its institutions to fulfill their responsibilities.

This explains why current attacks must be addressed within a comprehensive strategy that is not confined to military retaliation.

Military action should instead form part of a coordinated set of political, diplomatic, economic and security measures serving national interests.

The Saudi state understands that it is not immune to challenges and that past achievements do not eliminate the need to prepare for the future.

It also bears responsibility for protecting its security, citizens and residents, and for assessing the consequences of its decisions.

This is particularly important when the region faces the possibility of a widening conflict involving multiple parties, with repercussions that could extend well beyond the immediate confrontation.

Perhaps the most important lesson of the Saudi experience is that independent decision-making cannot be secured merely by declaring it.

It requires the ability to choose, a range of alternatives, coordination among state institutions and balanced foreign relations, so that confronting one crisis does not create other, more complicated crises.

Here I emphasize once again that, amid the transformations taking place in the world today, the pressures facing states are no longer limited to direct military threats.

Economic, political and media considerations may become intertwined with those threats.

Managing relations with partners, maintaining confidence in the economy and protecting critical infrastructure have therefore become integral elements of national security.

Enduring Principles, Multiple Options

With its long history of navigating regional and international transformations, and the religious, political and economic responsibilities it carries, Riyadh understands that confronting challenges does not mean simply reacting to the accelerating pace of events.

It means retaining the ability to assess interests and risks and to choose the means of achieving national objectives without compromising the state's fundamental principles.

Over the decades, the sources of threats and methods of pressure have changed.

The interests of countries and alliances have shifted, and challenges unknown to previous generations have emerged.

Yet one principle has remained constant throughout the Saudi state's experience: its security, stability and independence in decision-making are responsibilities that cannot be left to the judgment of others, however important its relationships and shared interests with them may be.

Circumstances may change, methods of pressure may multiply, and the positions of adversaries and partners may diverge.

But sovereignty, at its core, remains a state's ability to preserve its freedom of decision and choose what it considers consistent with its interests and responsibilities, rather than what others seek to impose on it under the pressure of crises.