Negotiations between Hamas and Israel about further steps in the Gaza ceasefire deal stand at crossroads, as Israel continues to “stall” the implementation of the second phase of its truce agreement with the Palestinian movement, refusing to hand over Palestinian prisoners, several observers said on Tuesday.
Hamas had submitted a proposal to Israel, through mediators, for a comprehensive prisoner-for-hostage swap based on the principle of “all for all” as part of ongoing negotiations.
Meanwhile, reports said the US and Israel are considering an extension of the first phase of the Gaza truce, which expires in a few days.
Several experts told Asharq Al-Awsat on Tuesday that the Hamas “all for all” proposal could be a solution only if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was serious about ending the war.
The experts said Israel would likely delay the first phase of the truce agreement, and that an “all for all” swap deal would be considered at later stages.
A ceasefire and hostage deal led by Cairo, Doha and Washington, came into effect on January 19 and included three phases, each of which will last 42 days.
Negotiations over the second phase, intended to secure the release of the remaining hostages and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, had been meant to start this month, 16 days after the start of the truce.
Mousa Abu Marzouk, the Qatar-based head of Hamas’s foreign relations office, said in an interview with The New York Times that releasing some more hostages and prisoners during an extension of the first phase could be discussed.
But he clarified that, under any circumstances, Hamas would demand far more prisoners in exchange for each hostage because the group considers the remaining Israeli hostages to be soldiers.
Abu Marzouk said Hamas was also open to releasing all hostages at the same time, if Israel was willing to free the thousands of Palestinians in its prisons, end the war and withdraw from Gaza.
“We’re ready to have a comprehensive deal,” he said.
Meanwhile, Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s point person on the Middle East, is expected to head back to the region to boost diplomacy.
Al Hurra TV channel said Witkoff will exert efforts to get an extension of phase one of the truce while the Israeli Haaretz newspaper said that Israel will presumably try to extend the deal's first stage by adding additional phases, in which a few more hostages would be freed.
Dr. Ahmed Fouad Anwar, Professor of Hebrew Language at Alexandria University and expert on Israeli affairs considered the Hamas “all for all” proposal as a “psychological war” aimed to exert further public Israeli pressure on Netanyahu.
He said that currently, Israel and Hamas are closer to extend the first phase of the ceasefire agreement rather than to reach an “all for all” deal.
This, he said, is due to Netanyahu’s opponents, who already threatened the Israeli government not to kick off the second phase of the deal or to withdraw from the Strip.
Commenting on the latest developments in Gaza, former Palestinian Ambassador to Egypt, Barakat Al-Fara said an “all for all” swap deal could solve the recurring and stumbling crisis between Israel and Hamas.
However, Al-Fara doubted Israel would stick to the deal.
He assumed that Netanyahu could accept Hamas’ proposal only to secure the release of his hostages.
In return, Al-Fara said, Israel will refuse to release the Palestinian prisoners, and instead returns to war, particularly since Hamas is in a difficult and weak position.
Dr. Ayman Al-Raqab, a professor of political science at Al-Quds University, said Netanyahu is not serious about completing the truce agreement.
“Netanyahu wants to secure the release of all his hostages while continuing the war,” he said, adding that the Israeli PM may arrest the released Palestinians prisoners again at any time.
“Neither an all for all deal nor the extension of the first phase would guarantee the implementation of the truce agreement in the absence of serious US pressures on the Israeli prime minister to abide by any agreement with Hamas,” Al-Raqab said.
