Water Shortages Threaten Food and Social Security in North Africa

A photo showing the extent of the drought affecting vast areas in southern Morocco (AFP)
A photo showing the extent of the drought affecting vast areas in southern Morocco (AFP)
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Water Shortages Threaten Food and Social Security in North Africa

A photo showing the extent of the drought affecting vast areas in southern Morocco (AFP)
A photo showing the extent of the drought affecting vast areas in southern Morocco (AFP)

Politicians and agricultural experts have warned that climate disruptions across several North African countries— including Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria—coupled with rising temperatures each year, are directly impacting water resources.

This, they caution, could threaten food, economic, and even social security in these nations, which are structurally reliant on food imports, particularly grains. The loss of agricultural potential, declining farm production, and disruptions to the tourism sector further compound the crisis.

Morocco is enduring its seventh consecutive year of severe drought, with rainfall this year down 53% compared to the 30-year average.

The prolonged dry spell has led to a shortage of grazing pastures for livestock, reducing meat production and driving up prices in the local market. In response, the country has increased imports of live cattle, sheep, and red meat to meet demand.

Morocco has signed a deal to import up to 100,000 sheep from Australia as part of efforts to stabilize local meat prices. The government has also suspended import duties and value-added tax (VAT) on livestock, including cattle, sheep, camels, and red meat, under the 2025 budget.

The prolonged drought—described as the worst since the early 1980s—has led to a 38% decline in livestock numbers, with rainfall 53% below the 30-year average, Agriculture Minister Ahmed El Bouari said in mid-February.

As a result, reservoirs across the country have been severely depleted, causing major job losses in the agricultural sector and prompting authorities to accelerate water desalination projects.

El Bouari noted that two irrigation reservoirs in the key farming regions were only 2% and 15% full. Nationwide, dam reserves have dropped to 26%, with authorities prioritizing drinking water supplies for cities over irrigation.

Morocco’s severe drought has drastically reduced per capita water availability, with current resources estimated at less than 650 cubic meters per person per year—down from 2,500 cubic meters in 1960, according to a report by the country’s Economic, Social, and Environmental Council.

The advisory body warned that this figure could fall below 500 cubic meters by 2030, while international studies suggest climate change could wipe out 80% of Morocco’s available water resources within the next 25 years.

To combat the crisis, Morocco has built 149 large dams with a total storage capacity exceeding 19 billion cubic meters, along with medium and small dams.

The country has also expanded seawater desalination projects, operating nine plants that produce 147 million cubic meters annually, and drilled thousands of wells to tap groundwater reserves.

In neighboring Algeria, the western province of Tiaret saw mass protests last summer as residents took to the streets over prolonged water cuts caused by the local dam drying up.

The government dispatched senior officials to the region in an effort to quell public anger, pledging urgent measures to resolve what protesters called a looming “thirst crisis.”

Algeria’s Water Resources Ministry has warned that the country now ranks among nations with critical water shortages due to prolonged and recurrent droughts.

Rainfall deficits have reached between 40% and 50% in recent years compared to historical annual averages, particularly in central and western regions, the ministry said.

“The decline in rainfall caused by climate change has significantly impacted the supply of drinking water, with 20 of Algeria’s 58 provinces facing severe shortages,” the ministry stated.

It added that, like other Mediterranean countries, Algeria is experiencing a water crisis driven by climate shifts that have disrupted natural precipitation cycles.

In response to recurring droughts and dwindling rainfall, the Algerian government has fast-tracked its long-delayed seawater desalination plan to avoid the public protests that have become common as summer approaches, bringing with it a surge in demand for drinking water.

In 2023, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune pledged to ensure a stable water supply for the country’s 45 million residents for the next 15 years, promising no interruptions in service.

As part of its effort to address the worsening water shortage, Algeria’s government is advancing a plan to build five seawater desalination plants, each capable of producing 300,000 cubic meters of water daily.

Former Minister of Water Resources and Security Karim Hasni had earlier warned of the growing crisis, noting that Algeria’s climate has become increasingly arid.

He outlined a “new strategy” that calls for increased reliance on desalination plants, calling seawater desalination the “optimal solution” as surface water supplies become scarce.

Algeria’s coastline, stretching over 1,200 kilometers, provides ample resources, along with the expertise and human capital needed to support such initiatives.

Meanwhile, Tunisia is facing a dire water shortage due to its worst drought in years, with reservoirs and dams nearly empty.

In response, authorities have implemented water cuts for up to seven hours each night, a measure that has sparked concerns about escalating social tensions.

The Ministry of Agriculture has also introduced water rationing for drinking purposes and partially banned its use for agriculture, car washing, irrigation of green spaces, street cleaning, and filling private swimming pools. Authorities have warned that violators will face penalties.

A report released in March 2024 by Tunisia’s Institute of competitiveness and quantitative studies revealed that Tunisia, which has endured six years of drought over the past decade, is now the fifth most vulnerable country in the world to drought and water scarcity.

The report’s authors warned that this situation could severely hinder Tunisia’s economic and social development, urging the government to take climate change into account and strengthen adaptation measures.

According to international standards, which set the minimum water requirement at 1,000 cubic meters per person annually, Tunisia has fallen below the water poverty line with less than 500 cubic meters per person per year.



Can Iran Legally Impose Tolls on the Strait of Hormuz?

FILE PHOTO: Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam governance, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam governance, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
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Can Iran Legally Impose Tolls on the Strait of Hormuz?

FILE PHOTO: Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam governance, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam governance, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

Tehran has sought to tighten its grip over the Strait of Hormuz by charging tolls on vessels to ensure safe passage, in conjunction with Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The following explains law governing toll collections and actions that countries opposed to tolls might take, according to Reuters.

WHAT IS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ?

The Strait of Hormuz is ‌a waterway connecting the Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, and located within Iran's and Oman's territorial waters. It is perhaps the world's most important energy shipping lane. About 20% of the world's oil passes through it.

The waterway is about 104 miles (167 km) long. Its width varies, and at its narrowest point provides 2-mile channels for inbound and outbound shipping, separated by a 2-mile buffer zone.

Iran effectively closed the strait following US-Israeli strikes on the country, and has demanded a right ⁠to collect tolls as a precondition to ending the war. The status of any toll collections so far could not immediately be confirmed.

WHAT LAW GOVERNS PASSAGE ON THE STRAIT?

The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, opens new tab, sometimes known as UNCLOS, was adopted in 1982 and has been in force since 1994.

Article 38 provides vessels a right of unimpeded "transit passage" through more than 100 straits worldwide, including the Strait of Hormuz.

The treaty allows a country bordering a strait to regulate passage within its "territorial sea," up to 12 nautical miles from its border, but shall permit "innocent passage."

Passage is innocent if it is not prejudicial to a country's peace, good order and security. Military action, serious pollution, spying and fishing are not permitted. The concept of innocent passage was key to a 1949 International Court ‌of ⁠Justice case concerning the Corfu Channel, along the coasts of Albania and Greece.

Approximately 170 countries and the European Union have ratified UNCLOS. Iran and the United States have not. This raises the question of whether the treaty's rules affording freedom of maritime navigation have become part of customary international law, or bind only ratifying countries.

Experts say UNCLOS has become or is generally viewed as customary international law. Some non-ratifying countries may ⁠argue that they need not follow the treaty because they persistently and consistently object. Iran has argued that it has made such objections. The United States disputes Iran's authority to charge tolls.

HOW CAN TOLLS BE CHALLENGED?

There is no formal mechanism to enforce UNCLOS. The International Tribunal for the Law ⁠of the Sea in Hamburg, Germany, which the treaty established, and the International Court of Justice in The Hague, Netherlands could issue rulings but cannot enforce them.

Countries and businesses have other potential means to counteract tolls.

A willing state or coalition of states could ⁠try to enforce the treaty. The UN Security Council could pass a resolution opposing tolls.

Companies could redirect shipments away from the Strait of Hormuz, and have begun doing so. Countries could expand sanctions targeting financial transactions believed to benefit Iran's government, by sanctioning companies willing to pay tolls.


How China’s Weapons Transfers to Iran Have Evolved Over Decades

FILE PHOTO: A member of the People's Liberation Army stands as the strategic strike group displays DF-5C nuclear missiles during a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two, in Beijing, China, September 3, 2025. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A member of the People's Liberation Army stands as the strategic strike group displays DF-5C nuclear missiles during a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two, in Beijing, China, September 3, 2025. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo
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How China’s Weapons Transfers to Iran Have Evolved Over Decades

FILE PHOTO: A member of the People's Liberation Army stands as the strategic strike group displays DF-5C nuclear missiles during a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two, in Beijing, China, September 3, 2025. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A member of the People's Liberation Army stands as the strategic strike group displays DF-5C nuclear missiles during a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two, in Beijing, China, September 3, 2025. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo

Washington: David Pierson

For much of the last two decades, China has maintained a delicate balance in its military relationship with Iran, offering often indirect assistance instead of arms sales.

That approach is now drawing renewed attention after US officials said intelligence agencies were assessing whether China may have shipped shoulder-fired missiles to Iran in recent weeks. President Trump has said he would impose an additional 50 percent tariff on Chinese goods if the assessment proves accurate. China has denied the claim, calling it “pure fabrication” and has vowed to “resolutely retaliate” if the Trump administration goes through with tariffs.

The American officials said the information obtained by US intelligence agencies was not definitive. But if proven true, it would be a significant tactical change in the way Beijing supports its closest strategic partner in the Middle East.

Chinese arms sales to Iran exploded in the 1980s and have all but vanished in the last decade to comply with a United Nations embargo and US sanctions. Chinese support for Iran in recent years has instead come in the form of components that could be used in both civilian technologies as well as missiles and drones.

China has a major stake in the crisis in Iran. About a third of its total crude oil imports come from the Arabian Gulf.

Here is how China’s military support for Iran has evolved over the years:

The 1980s: The Boom Years

The outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War in 1980 coincided with major market reforms in China when the leader at the time, Deng Xiaoping, ordered state-owned companies to wean themselves off government support and instead seek commercial profit.

Chinese state-run defense companies were suddenly empowered to export their wares. That resulted in a deluge of Chinese missiles, fighter jets, tanks, armored vehicles and assault rifles being sold to Iran starting in 1982 and peaking in 1987, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

At the same time, China sold even more arms to Iraq, resulting in a situation in which the two warring sides clashed with each other using the same Chinese weapons.

The Reagan administration opposed China’s arms sales to Iran, particularly Silkworm anti-ship cruise missiles. Tehran used the missiles in attacks in Kuwaiti waters in 1987 that struck an American-owned tanker and an American-registered tanker.

The United States responded by curbing exports of some high-technology products to China. China denied selling arms directly to Iran, but said it would do more to prevent its military exports from reaching Iran through intermediaries.

The 1990s: Technology Transfers

Following the war, Iran set out to develop its own military-industrial base with the help of China. One of its key products was the Noor anti-ship cruise missile, which had been reverse-engineered through purchases of Chinese C-802 cruise missiles.

“China played a major role in supporting Iran’s military modernization for decades, especially in developing Iran’s missile capabilities,” said Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Iran also received help from China in building missile-production facilities and even in constructing a missile test range east of Tehran, wrote Bates Gill, a longtime China expert, in the Middle East Review of International Affairs.

Under US pressure to curtail its sale of finished weapons, particularly missiles, to Iran, China began increasing exports of machine tools and components that could be used for both military and civilian purposes.

The 2000s to the Present: Dual-Use Technologies

In 2006, the United Nations imposed sanctions on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. China voted in favor of the resolution and largely pivoted away from new, formal arms contracts with Tehran.

The shift was as much about regional strategy as it was about international law. Starting in the mid-2010s, China began deepening its strategic relationships with Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Qatar.

China continued to supply Iran with dual-use technologies and materials that have helped it amass an arsenal of missiles and drones.

That included chemicals used to produce fuel for ballistic missiles and components for drones, such as radio frequency connectors and turbine blades.

But Mr. Hart said China was still “a critical form of support, given Iran’s reliance on ballistic missiles and drones to attack US and Israeli forces and other countries in the region.”

The US Treasury Department has sanctioned Chinese and Hong Kong front companies it says were set up to source parts and ingredients for ballistic missiles and drones for Iran.

Suspicions are also growing that Iran is using its access to China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system, an alternative to the US-owned Global Positioning System, for military purposes. Last month, a US congressional agency said BeiDou may have been used to direct Iran’s drone and missile strikes across the Middle East.

The New York Times


A Look at Sudan’s War by the Numbers

Sudanese refugees, who have fled the violence in their country, line up to receive food rations from World Food Program (WFP), in Adre Chad July 20, 2023. (Reuters)
Sudanese refugees, who have fled the violence in their country, line up to receive food rations from World Food Program (WFP), in Adre Chad July 20, 2023. (Reuters)
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A Look at Sudan’s War by the Numbers

Sudanese refugees, who have fled the violence in their country, line up to receive food rations from World Food Program (WFP), in Adre Chad July 20, 2023. (Reuters)
Sudanese refugees, who have fled the violence in their country, line up to receive food rations from World Food Program (WFP), in Adre Chad July 20, 2023. (Reuters)

Sudan is entering a fourth year of war between the military and paramilitary forces.

The fighting has pushed many people into famine, caused a huge displacement crisis and left over 30 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. Parties have been accused of committing atrocities like ethnic cleansing, extrajudicial killings and sexual violence against civilians.

Here's a look at the war by the numbers:

59,000 At least this many people have been killed, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, or ACLED. Aid groups say the true toll could be much higher as access to areas of fighting across the vast country remains limited.

4.5 million About this many people have fled the country to places like Egypt, South Sudan, Libya and Chad.

9 million About this many people remain displaced in Sudan.

19 million More than this many people face acute hunger, according to the World Food Program.

24% This is the amount that fuel prices have shot up in Sudan since conflict in the Middle East escalated.

354 This is the number of community kitchens that have closed over the last six months after providing a lifeline for millions of people, according to Islamic Relief.

Over 4,300 About this many children have been killed or maimed in the war, according to UNICEF.

8 million At least this many children are still out of school, according to UNICEF.

11% About this many schools are being used by warring sides or are shelters for displaced people, according to UNICEF.

63% This many of Sudan's health facilities are fully or partially functioning, according to World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

217 This is the number of verified attacks on health facilities since the war began, according to the WHO.

1,032 This was the number of civilians killed by air and drone strikes in 2025, according to ACLED, as a surge in drone strikes took a growing toll.