Dollar Rises ahead of Fed; Turkish Lira Drop Reins in G10 Currencies

Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
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Dollar Rises ahead of Fed; Turkish Lira Drop Reins in G10 Currencies

Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo

The dollar rallied on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, but retreated from the day's highs after markets stabilized from an early shock caused by the detention

of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's main rival.

Traders are also digesting the Bank of Japan's earlier decision to hold interest rates steady, while the Fed's policy decision later will be crucial for investors eager to know what the central bank makes of Trump's policies and their impact on the US economy, and how that affects the rate outlook.

Fed policymakers are widely expected to keep rates on hold, and will also release new economic projections at the conclusion of the meeting later in the day, Reuters reported.

Feeding into an earlier rally in the dollar was news out of Turkey which saw the lira briefly tumble by the most in a day on record, rippling through major currencies as investors shifted into safe-haven assets.

By 1226 GMT, the euro was down 0.3% versus the dollar to $1.091, having fallen as much as 0.6% earlier. Even so, it remains near a five-month high of $1.0955 scaled in the previous session.

"The news from Turkey is having an impact on G10 currency markets and risk appetite in general," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

"But I would think some of the initial impact of what's happened will begin to filter out from some of the euro trade once the market has become a bit more accustomed to it."

The yen weakened against the dollar, which rose 0.3% to 149.805 in volatile trade as investors mulled the BOJ decision to hold rates steady and comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda .

The widely expected BOJ decision underscored policymakers' preference to spend more time gauging how mounting global economic risks from higher US tariffs could affect Japan's fragile recovery.

"The decision to leave monetary policy unchanged itself is not a surprise, so its impact on exchange rates is limited. However, the earlier-than-usual timing of the announcement seems to have led financial markets to initially interpret that the BOJ (did not consider) bringing forward a rate hike," said Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at SMBC.

Adding to nervousness among investors, Israeli airstrikes pounded Gaza overnight, while US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to reach an agreement on a Ukraine ceasefire.

The more risk-sensitive currencies edged lower, with sterling down 0.2% at $1.29795, not far from the previous session's four-month high of $1.3010, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar ticked up 0.2% to 103.55, coming off a five-month low of 103.19 on Tuesday.

The dollar has fallen nearly 4% for the month, pressured by Trump's erratic approach to tariffs and as fears mount of a recession in the world's largest economy.

Traders are currently pricing in nearly 60 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the year end.

"The March FOMC meeting will likely be all about policy uncertainty. The Fed will almost certainly stay on hold, emphasising patience over panic," said analysts at Bank of America Securities.

"The (Summary of Economic Projections) forecasts and distribution of risks are both likely to reflect stagflation: weaker growth and higher inflation."



India Secures 60 Days of Oil Supply amid Hormuz Disruption

Small boats sail loaded with goods in front of a container ship in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman, June 25, 2025 (AFP)
Small boats sail loaded with goods in front of a container ship in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman, June 25, 2025 (AFP)
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India Secures 60 Days of Oil Supply amid Hormuz Disruption

Small boats sail loaded with goods in front of a container ship in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman, June 25, 2025 (AFP)
Small boats sail loaded with goods in front of a container ship in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman, June 25, 2025 (AFP)

India has secured crude oil supplies for the next 60 days, ensuring stable fuel supplies in the country despite disruption in shipments from the Middle East, the oil ministry said in a statement on Thursday.

India, the world's third biggest oil consumer and importer, was buying over 40% of its oil imports from the Middle East. Those supplies are disrupted due to the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Higher availability of crude in global markets, mainly from the Western hemisphere, has helped offset the shortfall, the government said.

Taking advantage of a temporary US waiver, Indian refiners have also ramped up purchases of Russian crude, securing millions of barrels to fill the supply gap.

"Despite the situation at the Strait of Hormuz, India is today receiving more crude oil from its 41-plus suppliers across the world than what was previously arriving through the Strait," the ministry said.

As a net exporter of petroleum products, India’s domestic availability of petrol and diesel remains structurally secure, the government said.

The world's fourth-largest refiner has oil and fuel stocks sufficient to meet 60 days of demand, against a total storage capacity of 74 days, it added.

"Nearly two months of steady supply is available for every Indian citizen, regardless of what happens globally. The next two months of crude procurement have also been secured," it added.

India has asked refiners to maximize production of liquefied petroleum gas, used as cooking fuel, as the nation was buying 90% of its LPG imports from the Middle East.

Domestic daily LPG production has been increased by 40% to 50,000 metric tons against a requirement of 80,000 tons, it said.

In addition, Indian companies have secured 800,000 tons of LPG cargoes from the United States, Russia, Australia, and other countries, it said.

These shipments, arriving across India's 22 LPG import terminals, provide roughly one month of assured supply, with further procurement underway, the government said.


SAMA Licenses Two Companies to Provide Open Banking Services

SAMA Licenses Two Companies to Provide Open Banking Services
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SAMA Licenses Two Companies to Provide Open Banking Services

SAMA Licenses Two Companies to Provide Open Banking Services

The Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) announced the licensing of “Altknwlwjya aljadydh llhulul albrmjyh” and “lyn tknwlwjyz Company Saudi Arabia litqniyat nuzum almaelumat” to conduct payment services by providing account information—one of the services associated with open banking.

The licenses were granted following the successful completion of the regulatory sandbox phase under SAMA’s supervision.

The decision reflects SAMA’s ongoing efforts to support and enable the financial sector, enhance the efficiency and flexibility of financial transactions, and promote innovation in financial services. This aims to advancing financial inclusion and expanding access to financial services across all segments of society.

SAMA emphasizes the importance of dealing exclusively with authorized financial institutions. To view licensed and permitted financial institutions, visit SAMA's official website.


UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
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UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)

Britain's economic ‌growth prospects this year received the sharpest downgrade of any major economy in the OECD's interim forecast update on Thursday following the US-Israeli war ​on Iran, while inflation is set to rise faster too.

The Paris-based international body cut its 2026 forecast for British economic growth by half a percentage point to 0.7%, compared with a 0.4 percentage point downgrade for the euro zone and a 0.3 percentage point upgrade for the United States.

"Planned fiscal tightening and higher energy prices ‌are anticipated to keep ‌growth subdued in the United ​Kingdom, ‌though the ⁠impact ​will be ⁠attenuated by lower policy rates next year," Reuters quoted the OECD as saying in its report.

Following are further highlights from the report and other context:

Britain's growth forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.

Britain's inflation forecast for 2026 is revised up by 1.5 percentage points from December to 4.0%, the ⁠biggest upward revision of any large, advanced ‌economy.

UK inflation in 2027 ‌is forecast to be 2.6%, 0.5 percentage ​points higher than in ‌December and above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Poorer UK households spend more on gas and electricity than in other rich countries, though total energy spending makes up a smaller share of UK inflation than elsewhere.

The OECD expects the ‌BoE to keep interest rates unchanged this year then cut in Q1 2027 as inflation ⁠eases.

⁠Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility, in forecasts finalized just before the start of the conflict, predicted GDP growth of 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2027.

The BoE this month forecast inflation would rise to 3.0-3.5% over the next couple of quarters.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made boosting growth and reducing the cost of living top goals for his government.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the forecasts showed the war in the Middle East ​was affecting Britain but ​she would still focus on "regional growth, embracing AI and innovation, and establishing a closer relationship with the EU."