Oil Prices Rise on Strong Demand Outlook, Weaker US Dollar

An Oil refinery is seen from Maracaibo, Zulia State, Venezuela on March 19, 2025. (Photo by Pedro MATTEY / AFP)
An Oil refinery is seen from Maracaibo, Zulia State, Venezuela on March 19, 2025. (Photo by Pedro MATTEY / AFP)
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Oil Prices Rise on Strong Demand Outlook, Weaker US Dollar

An Oil refinery is seen from Maracaibo, Zulia State, Venezuela on March 19, 2025. (Photo by Pedro MATTEY / AFP)
An Oil refinery is seen from Maracaibo, Zulia State, Venezuela on March 19, 2025. (Photo by Pedro MATTEY / AFP)

Oil prices rose on Thursday, boosted by a strong outlook for demand in the United States after fuel inventories fell more than expected, and a weaker US dollar.

Brent crude futures were up 34 cents, or 0.5%, to stand at $71.12 a barrel by 0745 GMT, their highest level since March 3. US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) gained 42 cents, or 0.6%, to $67.58.

US government data showed a higher-than-expected drawdown last week in distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, which fell by 2.8 million barrels, outstripping a drop of 300,000 barrels expected in a Reuters poll.

"US oil demand outlook remains healthy despite lower air travel passenger volumes," JPMorgan analysts said in a note, adding that reduced US travel activity did not signal broader weakness in the demand outlook.

Global oil demand averaged 101.8 million barrels per day (bpd), an annual increase of 1.5 million bpd, the analysts said.

US crude inventories, rose 1.7 million barrels, however, exceeding expectations for an increase of 512,000 barrels in an earlier Reuters poll.

A weaker greenback also contributed to oil's gains, with the dollar on a downtrend since the end of February.

"Throughout the week, the weakness of the dollar appeared to provide some support for dollar-denominated oil prices," said Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.

Oil investors remain hopeful of the prospect of the Federal Reserve easing interest rates by 50 basis points by year's end, she added.

Some analysts however are expecting an uneven price uptrend in the near term.

"I am expecting a choppy upward drift in the oil markets right now," said OANDA's senior market analyst Kelvin Wong, adding that bullish price drivers are stimulus measures out from China and the return of hostilities between Israel and Hamas.

Global risk premiums rose after Israel launched a new ground operation on Wednesday in Gaza after breaking a ceasefire of nearly two months.

The United States kept up airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in retaliation for the group's attacks on ships in the Red Sea. US President Donald Trump has also vowed to hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks.

Bearish near-term market drivers include the upcoming production rise among OPEC+ members and a likely lackluster US S&P Global Services PMI flash reading for March, OANDA's Wong added.



Gold Falls as Positive US-China Talks Hamper Safe-haven Appeal

Gold jewelry are displayed for sale at V&P Jewelry in the St. Vincent Jewelry Center in the Jewelry District of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, Wednesday, April 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Gold jewelry are displayed for sale at V&P Jewelry in the St. Vincent Jewelry Center in the Jewelry District of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, Wednesday, April 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
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Gold Falls as Positive US-China Talks Hamper Safe-haven Appeal

Gold jewelry are displayed for sale at V&P Jewelry in the St. Vincent Jewelry Center in the Jewelry District of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, Wednesday, April 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Gold jewelry are displayed for sale at V&P Jewelry in the St. Vincent Jewelry Center in the Jewelry District of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, Wednesday, April 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Gold slipped on Monday as positive US-China trade talks alleviated market fears, leading investors to shift from safe-haven assets towards riskier investments.

Spot gold fell 1.4% to $3,277.34 an ounce, as of 0432 GMT. US gold futures lost 1.9% to $3,281.70, Reuters reported.

"The dollar index has advanced as the Trump administration touted progress in trade negotiations, with China following negotiations over the weekend in Switzerland which weighed on gold prices," said Jigar Trivedi, senior commodity analyst at Reliance Securities.

The US and China ended high-stakes trade talks on a positive note on Sunday, with US officials touting a "deal" to reduce the US trade deficit, while Chinese officials said they had reached "important consensus".

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said a joint statement would be released in Geneva on Monday.

The US and China imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on each other last month, triggering a trade war that fueled fears of global recession.

The US will be left with higher tariffs once the dust settles from President Donald Trump's trade negotiations, a majority of the current and former Trump advisers Reuters spoke to said.

Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against economic and political uncertainties, thrives in a low-interest rate environment.

On Friday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed needs more time to see how the economy responds to Trump's tariffs and other policies before figuring out the right response.

Traders are also eyeing release of US Consumer Price Index on Tuesday for fresh signals on the Fed's monetary policy trajectory.

"In the near term, gold possibly continue to decline as the dollar could appreciate and amid reducing geopolitical risk the haven demand too may drop hence, the yellow metal may decline to $3,200/oz in the near term," Trivedi added.

Spot silver gained 0.4% to $32.84 an ounce, platinum rose 0.7% to $1,001.90 and palladium firmed 0.6% to $981.20.