Dollar Inches Higher as Fed's Signals No Rush to Cut Rates

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Inches Higher as Fed's Signals No Rush to Cut Rates

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar inched up on Thursday after the Federal Reserve indicated it was in no rush to cut rates further this year due to uncertainties around US tariffs, while the pound slipped ahead of the Bank of England's policy decision.

The Swiss franc weakened slightly after the Swiss National Bank lowered its policy rate to 0.25%, while the Swedish crown was steady after its central bank held rates steady.

US policymakers projected two quarter-point interest rate cuts were likely later this year, the same median forecast as three months ago, even as they expect slower economic growth and higher inflation. On Wednesday, the Fed held its benchmark overnight rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range, Reuters reported.

"We're not going to be in any hurry to move," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. "Our current policy stance is well-positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we face ... The right thing to do is to wait here for greater clarity about what the economy is doing."

Powell's comments and the Fed statement underscored the challenge faced by policymakers as they navigate President Donald Trump's plans to levy duties on imports from US trading partners and the impact on the economy.

"There is probably not enough in the Fed communication to build fresh USD shorts," said ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole.

Traders are pricing in 63 basis points of Fed easing this year, about two rate reductions of 25 bps each, and around a 50% chance of a third. Markets are fully pricing in the next cut in July, LSEG data showed.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six rivals, was 0.3% higher at 103.69 but stayed close to the five-month low of 103.19 touched earlier this week. The euro was down 0.3% at $1.0871.

EUROPE'S CENTRAL BANK BONANZA

Sterling touched a more than four-month high of $1.3015 in early Asian hours before retreating back to $1.2975 ahead of the BoE policy decision, where the central bank is expected to keep rates on hold.

With UK inflation stuck firmly above its 2% target, the BoE has cut borrowing costs by less than the European Central Bank and the Fed since last summer, contributing to the country's sluggish growth rate.

Data on Thursday showed pay growth was little changed and other signs of stability in the jobs market.

"The latest labour market data won't do much to build conviction amongst the Monetary Policy Committee as they continue to balance a weak economy and sticky inflation," said Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club.

"A decision to hold the bank rate later today seems inevitable."

The Swiss franc weakened slightly against the dollar and euro after its central bank cut its interest rate to 0.25%, its fifth successive cut, and said it was prepared to intervene in the FX market as necessary.

In a busy day for central banks, Sweden's central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, as expected.

The Swedish crown was slightly weaker against the stronger dollar and up on the softer euro. The crown has been the best performing major currency against the dollar this year on expectations of a ceasefire in Ukraine and improved domestic economic prospects.

The yen was a shade stronger at 148.54 per dollar, a day after the Bank of Japan kept rates steady and warned of heightening global economic uncertainty, suggesting the timing of further hikes will depend on the fallout from US tariffs.

The yen has risen nearly 6% this year as traders bet that the Japanese central bank will hike rates this year as well as benefiting from geopolitical tensions leading to safe asset flows.

Elsewhere, Turkey's lira was steady at 38 per dollar after plunging to a record low of 42 per dollar on Wednesday as authorities detained President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival.

The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to $0.6312 after Australian employment posted a surprise fall in February, ending a strong run of impressive gains, as the red-hot labour market loosened a little, although the jobless rate remained steady.

The New Zealand dollar fell 1% to $0.5760 even as data showed the economy crawled out of a recession and grew at a faster-than-expected pace of 0.7% last quarter, although underlying details were soft.



UAE Shares Extend Losses

A man follows the stock market shares on a screen with stock information at the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) in the Gulf emirate of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 04 March 2026. EPA/ALI HAIDER
A man follows the stock market shares on a screen with stock information at the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) in the Gulf emirate of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 04 March 2026. EPA/ALI HAIDER
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UAE Shares Extend Losses

A man follows the stock market shares on a screen with stock information at the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) in the Gulf emirate of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 04 March 2026. EPA/ALI HAIDER
A man follows the stock market shares on a screen with stock information at the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) in the Gulf emirate of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 04 March 2026. EPA/ALI HAIDER

The UAE stock markets fell in early trade on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session after exchanges reopened following a two-day trading halt triggered by Iran’s missiles and drones.

The UAE's stock markets reopened on Wednesday.

Both exchanges said they will temporarily set a 5% lower price limit on securities.

Dubai's main share index sank more than 4%, as stocks retreated across the board, with top lender Emirates NBD and blue-chip developer Emaar Properties both losing 4.9%.

Elsewhere, budget airline Air Arabia declined 4.9%.

However, utility firm Dubai Electricity and Water Authority advanced 4.4%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index retreated 2.3%, with the country's biggest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank declining 4.9% and Aldar Properties was ⁠down 5%.

Among ⁠other fallers, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank tumbled 5%.


US Bonds Tumble as Oil Price Surge Rekindles Inflation Fears

Patrick King works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Wednesday, March 4, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Patrick King works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Wednesday, March 4, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
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US Bonds Tumble as Oil Price Surge Rekindles Inflation Fears

Patrick King works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Wednesday, March 4, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Patrick King works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Wednesday, March 4, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

A steep selloff ‌in US Treasuries extended into a fourth straight day on Thursday, as investors fretted that surging energy prices from the war in the Middle East could stoke inflation and derail the Federal Reserve's rate outlook.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield jumped as much as 5 basis points in Asia to a three-week high of 4.1310%, extending its rise for the week thus far to nearly 17 bps.

The two-year yield was meanwhile up about 2 bps to ‌3.5640%, having ‌also gained more than 18 bps ‌this ⁠week. Bond prices move ⁠inversely to yields, said Reuters.

Investors have pared back expectations of further easing from the Fed this year on the back of the US-Israel war with Iran, which entered its sixth day as Iran launched a wave of missiles at Israel, sending millions of residents into bomb shelters.

That has ⁠kept oil prices elevated, and with shipping ‌through the key Strait of ‌Hormuz paralyzed, investor focus has quickly shifted to the risk ‌of a resurgence in inflation.

"As of right now, ‌the (US) consumer price index is going to get back to the high (2%) if crude oil costs don't tumble in short order," said Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

"The reversal in (inflation) ‌progress would likely send Treasuries and stocks further lower, as rate-cut optimism amid decelerating cost ⁠pressures was ⁠what sparked the rallies in fixed income and cyclical benchmarks early in 2026."

Traders are now pricing in just a 34% chance of a Fed cut in June, as compared to a near 46% chance a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Fed funds futures point to just over 40 bps worth of easing by the year-end.

The shifting Fed expectations have also come on the back of Wednesday's upbeat US economic data, which showed services sector activity surged to more than a 3-1/2-year high in February amid strong demand.


Could Egypt’s ‘SUMED’ Pipeline Temporarily Replace the Strait of Hormuz?

Egypt’s Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi during an inspection tour of SUMED port (Egyptian Petroleum Ministry)
Egypt’s Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi during an inspection tour of SUMED port (Egyptian Petroleum Ministry)
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Could Egypt’s ‘SUMED’ Pipeline Temporarily Replace the Strait of Hormuz?

Egypt’s Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi during an inspection tour of SUMED port (Egyptian Petroleum Ministry)
Egypt’s Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi during an inspection tour of SUMED port (Egyptian Petroleum Ministry)

Amid the ongoing Iran war and Tehran’s announcement of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy supplies, Egypt has begun highlighting the SUMED pipeline linking the Red Sea and the Mediterranean as a potential temporary alternative for oil transport.

The move has raised questions about whether the pipeline, a vital connection between the two seas, could help offset disruptions to the volatile waterway.

Egypt’s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawi addressed the issue during a government press conference on Tuesday, saying Egypt “has sufficient technical and logistical capabilities to support this strategic route.”

He said the SUMED pipeline enhances the flexibility of oil supply flows in the region and confirmed Egypt’s readiness to cooperate with Gulf states to facilitate oil transport from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean through the line.

Energy experts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat agreed that the pipeline could help ease the current energy crisis amid the absence of any political solution to end the war, noting the line was originally designed as an alternative route when oil shipments face obstacles passing through the Suez Canal.

SUMED pipeline

The pipeline is owned by the Arab Petroleum Pipelines Company (SUMED), an Arab joint venture led by Egypt, with a 50% stake held by the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, alongside partners from Gulf states.

The pipeline runs across Egypt from Ain Sokhna on the Gulf of Suez to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast, with a capacity of about 2.8 million barrels per day.

According to Egypt’s petroleum ministry, the pipeline transported about 24.9 billion barrels of crude oil and more than 730 million barrels of petroleum products from its launch in 1974 through 2024.

Ahmed Kandil, head of Energy Studies Program at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said the line’s importance lies in easing disruptions to oil trade following Tehran’s declaration that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that oil shipments could reach the pipeline via tankers transporting crude from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port to Egypt’s Ain Sokhna port, from where it would move through the pipeline to the Mediterranean and onward to Europe.

He said coordination with Gulf states is underway to contain concerns over energy supplies, particularly among European consumers.

Kandil added that the arrival of part of Gulf exports to European markets is highly important, helping limit spikes in Brent crude prices, which have already surpassed $80 per barrel.

“The growing importance of the Egyptian pipeline comes amid the absence of a political horizon, which means the current conflict could be prolonged,” he said.

Storage capacity

According to the US Energy Information Administration, the main reason for building the SUMED pipeline at this location is that very large crude carriers — capable of transporting about 2.2 million barrels — cannot pass through the Suez Canal due to their excessive weight and width, which could risk grounding.

Instead, they offload their cargo at Ain Sokhna, where the oil is transported through the pipeline to the other side of Egypt. Smaller vessels then reload the crude at Sidi Kerir and sail to Europe and the United States.

Energy markets expert Ramadan Abu Al-Ala said the Egyptian pipeline serves as an alternative to the Suez Canal and could temporarily ease the crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

He noted that the pipeline is particularly effective for oil tankers arriving from Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, which can unload at Ain Sokhna before the crude is transported to the Mediterranean and European markets.

Abu Al-Ala expects SUMED to become even more important for Gulf oil exports to Europe if the war drags on, increasing reliance on the pipeline. However, he said this would require enhanced security measures for oil tankers operating in the Red Sea.

Energy market experts also highlighted another advantage: the pipeline’s large storage capacity. SUMED operates storage tanks with a total capacity of 40 million barrels of oil.

In February 2019, Saudi Aramco signed two agreements with the company to provide storage capacity for diesel and fuel oil.