Dollar Inches Higher as Fed's Signals No Rush to Cut Rates

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Inches Higher as Fed's Signals No Rush to Cut Rates

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar inched up on Thursday after the Federal Reserve indicated it was in no rush to cut rates further this year due to uncertainties around US tariffs, while the pound slipped ahead of the Bank of England's policy decision.

The Swiss franc weakened slightly after the Swiss National Bank lowered its policy rate to 0.25%, while the Swedish crown was steady after its central bank held rates steady.

US policymakers projected two quarter-point interest rate cuts were likely later this year, the same median forecast as three months ago, even as they expect slower economic growth and higher inflation. On Wednesday, the Fed held its benchmark overnight rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range, Reuters reported.

"We're not going to be in any hurry to move," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. "Our current policy stance is well-positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we face ... The right thing to do is to wait here for greater clarity about what the economy is doing."

Powell's comments and the Fed statement underscored the challenge faced by policymakers as they navigate President Donald Trump's plans to levy duties on imports from US trading partners and the impact on the economy.

"There is probably not enough in the Fed communication to build fresh USD shorts," said ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole.

Traders are pricing in 63 basis points of Fed easing this year, about two rate reductions of 25 bps each, and around a 50% chance of a third. Markets are fully pricing in the next cut in July, LSEG data showed.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six rivals, was 0.3% higher at 103.69 but stayed close to the five-month low of 103.19 touched earlier this week. The euro was down 0.3% at $1.0871.

EUROPE'S CENTRAL BANK BONANZA

Sterling touched a more than four-month high of $1.3015 in early Asian hours before retreating back to $1.2975 ahead of the BoE policy decision, where the central bank is expected to keep rates on hold.

With UK inflation stuck firmly above its 2% target, the BoE has cut borrowing costs by less than the European Central Bank and the Fed since last summer, contributing to the country's sluggish growth rate.

Data on Thursday showed pay growth was little changed and other signs of stability in the jobs market.

"The latest labour market data won't do much to build conviction amongst the Monetary Policy Committee as they continue to balance a weak economy and sticky inflation," said Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club.

"A decision to hold the bank rate later today seems inevitable."

The Swiss franc weakened slightly against the dollar and euro after its central bank cut its interest rate to 0.25%, its fifth successive cut, and said it was prepared to intervene in the FX market as necessary.

In a busy day for central banks, Sweden's central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, as expected.

The Swedish crown was slightly weaker against the stronger dollar and up on the softer euro. The crown has been the best performing major currency against the dollar this year on expectations of a ceasefire in Ukraine and improved domestic economic prospects.

The yen was a shade stronger at 148.54 per dollar, a day after the Bank of Japan kept rates steady and warned of heightening global economic uncertainty, suggesting the timing of further hikes will depend on the fallout from US tariffs.

The yen has risen nearly 6% this year as traders bet that the Japanese central bank will hike rates this year as well as benefiting from geopolitical tensions leading to safe asset flows.

Elsewhere, Turkey's lira was steady at 38 per dollar after plunging to a record low of 42 per dollar on Wednesday as authorities detained President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival.

The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to $0.6312 after Australian employment posted a surprise fall in February, ending a strong run of impressive gains, as the red-hot labour market loosened a little, although the jobless rate remained steady.

The New Zealand dollar fell 1% to $0.5760 even as data showed the economy crawled out of a recession and grew at a faster-than-expected pace of 0.7% last quarter, although underlying details were soft.



IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.


Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.


Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.