Türkiye’s Simsek Seeks to Calm Investors, Says Market Strains Will Be Managed, Sources Say

People flash mobile phone lights during a protest against the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as part of a corruption investigation, in Istanbul, Türkiye, March 25, 2025. (Reuters)
People flash mobile phone lights during a protest against the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as part of a corruption investigation, in Istanbul, Türkiye, March 25, 2025. (Reuters)
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Türkiye’s Simsek Seeks to Calm Investors, Says Market Strains Will Be Managed, Sources Say

People flash mobile phone lights during a protest against the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as part of a corruption investigation, in Istanbul, Türkiye, March 25, 2025. (Reuters)
People flash mobile phone lights during a protest against the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as part of a corruption investigation, in Istanbul, Türkiye, March 25, 2025. (Reuters)

Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek and Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan told international investors on Tuesday that they would do whatever was needed to tame market turmoil triggered by the arrest of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival.

Police detained Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan's main political rival, last Wednesday, and a court jailed him on Sunday pending trial on corruption charges, sparking Türkiye's biggest protests in more than a decade and a major market sell-off.

Simsek told investors he would not comment on judicial matters and the events of the last two weeks, but said there would be no lasting impact on the economy and that he intended to stay in his post, according to two sources on the call.

He also said there would be no change in approach to the economic turnaround program he introduced in mid-2023 when the country was in the midst of its most recent currency crisis.

"They steered almost completely clear of the political crisis," one participant on the call said.

A statement from the finance ministry after the call confirmed that Simsek had reiterated his view that there would be no lasting damage to the economy and that further measures would be taken if needed.

Central bank governor Fatih Karahan told the call that he sees the market turmoil as a temporary blip, one participant said. He also repeated something Simsek had said earlier, that Türkiye will do "whatever it takes" to tame inflation, two sources said.

Journalists were not invited to the call, but participants said Simsek added that the Treasury could reduce bond issuance as part of its response, and that it also had the option of so-called FX-linked bonds, that give buyers some protection against big currency swings.

The minister also said he expected Türkiye to benefit from better bilateral relations with the United States. Later on Tuesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is to meet Foreign Secretary Marco Rubio in Washington.

Veteran emerging market analyst Tim Ash at fund manager BlueBay said the call, which also detailed how "offshore" investors had accounted for 60% of FX demand during last week's selloff, had been a "coordinated effort to engage with the international investment community, and re-assure."

REBOUND

Markets were continuing to stabilize after the call drew to a close with the Istanbul stock market finishing the day up 4.5% and the lira steady at just under 38 to the dollar.

The Borsa Istanbul ended last week down 16.6%, its worst drop since the peak of the global financial crisis in October 2008. The lira had dropped more than 10% at the height of the rout on Wednesday.

Tuesday's moves also saw the banking sub-index win back another 5.3%. It slumped more than 26% last week and has now recovered around 7.5% of that.

The Treasury, central bank, the BDDK banking watchdog and capital markets board had already held a series of meetings with market actors over the weekend and announced several steps.

The measures had begun with the central bank raising the upper band of the interest rate corridor by 2 points to 46% in an interim meeting last week, pausing funding from the policy rate.

While the central bank took a tightening step of close to 400 basis points, it also sold around $14 billion in foreign exchange. Additionally, it has started liquidity note issuance and TL-settled forward foreign exchange sales transactions.

The Turkish central bank's net FX position dropped by some $27 billion due to FX sales last week since Wednesday, according to bankers' calculations from the bank's balance sheet.

Short selling on the Istanbul stock market has been banned for one month.

Türkiye's international sovereign bonds were also continuing to claw back some of last week's losses, with the 2045 maturity up almost 1 cent on the dollar at 84.6 cents on the dollar, Tradeweb data showed, after falling more than 3 cents last week.

Türkiye's five-year credit default swaps, which investors often use as a hedge against turmoil, eased again too, ending the day back under 300 basis points according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, having spiked to almost 330 from 260 last week.

Turkish lira implied FX volatility gauges and risk reversals eased slightly, although they remained highly elevated, having soared to their highest levels since the country's last currency crisis in mid-2023, data from Fenics showed.

Ahead of Tuesday's investor call, Himanshu Porwal, EM analyst at Seaport Global had said that the markets had already been reacting positively to the measures taken to settle the markets in recent days.

"I think they (central bank, finance minister) have been doing what is required. FX is usually the first trigger you look at and so far the move has been contained, so I think people are coming to terms with it already," Porwal said.



IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.


Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.


Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.