Dollar Unmoored as Traders Unsure on US Tariffs 

US dollar banknotes are seen in this photo illustration taken February 12, 2018. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this photo illustration taken February 12, 2018. (Reuters)
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Dollar Unmoored as Traders Unsure on US Tariffs 

US dollar banknotes are seen in this photo illustration taken February 12, 2018. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this photo illustration taken February 12, 2018. (Reuters)

The dollar was adrift on Wednesday, with weak US confidence data and concerns about the effect of sweeping tariffs on US growth putting the brakes on a recent bounce.

After briefly crossing below 150 yen, the dollar floated to 150.55 yen in the Asia session, but traders lacked conviction, while a messy week of tariff hits looms.

The euro, which spent a week edging lower from a five-month high, has steadied around $1.0783. Sterling held steady at $1.2931 ahead of British inflation data and a budget update due later in the day.

The euro and Russia's rouble had little immediate reaction to US deals with Russia and Ukraine to pause attacks at sea and on energy targets, though wheat prices fell as the US said it will push to lift sanctions on Russian agriculture.

That leaves the focus on next week, when US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose - or at least provide details of - a new round of tariffs on autos, chips and pharmaceuticals.

The trade-sensitive Australian dollar hovered just above 63 cents, wavering only slightly when February consumer inflation data came in a bit softer than expected.

It barely responded to Tuesday's federal budget, which promised tax cuts and extra borrowing to fund relief measures for voters ahead of a May election.

"The major driver of AUD/USD over the next few weeks, and possibly months, will be the new US trade policy and the response from foreign governments," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso.

"If market participants are caught flat footed by larger than expected US tariffs and retaliation by other governments next week, AUD/USD can test $0.60 in coming weeks."

The New Zealand dollar was a tad firmer at $0.5750.

Tariffs and threats of the duties have already driven counterintuitive moves in currency markets as concerns they may drive down US growth have confounded the assumption that the levies should be inflationary and drive up the dollar.

Data released on Tuesday showing US consumer confidence plunged to the lowest level in more than four years in March highlighted how the uncertainty is weighing heavily on households.

For the quarter, the dollar index - which had rallied strongly between September and January - is headed for a roughly 4% drop. It was stalled at 104.32 in the Asia afternoon.

In emerging markets, Türkiye's lira found a footing just below 38 to the dollar after the finance minister and central bank governor told investors they would do whatever was needed to tame market turmoil triggered by the arrest of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival.

Indonesia's currency teetered near a record low as worries over slowing growth and rising government spending shook confidence in Southeast Asia's biggest economy.



Oil Extends Climb on Supply Fears, Trade War Concerns Cap Gains

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Extends Climb on Supply Fears, Trade War Concerns Cap Gains

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices inched higher on Tuesday after threats by US President Donald Trump to impose secondary tariffs on Russian crude and attack Iran, though worries about the impact of a trade war on global growth capped gains.

Brent futures rose 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $74.98 a barrel at 0645 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $71.70.

The contracts settled at five-week highs a day earlier.

"Near-term risks are skewed to the upside, with US threats of secondary tariffs on Russian and Iranian oil leading market participants to price for the risks of tighter oil supplies," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, Reuters reported.

However, broader themes still revolve around concerns of upcoming tariffs weighing on global demand, along with prospects of increased supply from OPEC+ and the US, said Yeap.

A Reuters poll of 49 economists and analysts in March projected that oil prices would remain under pressure this year from US tariffs and economic slowdowns in India and China, while OPEC+ increases supply.

Slower global growth would dent fuel demand, which might offset any reduction in supply due to Trump's threats.

After news of Trump's threats initially boosted prices on Monday, traders told Reuters they viewed the president's warnings to Russia, at least, as a bluff.

Trump, on Sunday, told NBC News that he was very angry with Russian President Vladimir Putin and would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on Russian oil buyers if Moscow tries to block efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Tariffs on buyers of oil from Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, would disrupt global supply and hurt Moscow's biggest customers, China and India.

Trump also threatened Iran with similar tariffs and bombings if Tehran did not reach an agreement with the White House over its nuclear program.

"For now, it appears to be just a threat to Russia and Iran. However, if it becomes a reality, it creates plenty of upside risk to the market given the significant oil export volumes from both countries," said ING commodities strategists on Tuesday.

The market will be watching for weekly inventory data from US industry group the American Petroleum Institute later on Tuesday, ahead of official statistics from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Five analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated on average that US crude inventories fell by about 2.1 million barrels in the week to March 28.