Dollar Drifts as Traders Grapple with Tariff Uncertainty, Volatility

A teller counts US dollar bank notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 9, 2025. Picture taken through glass. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
A teller counts US dollar bank notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 9, 2025. Picture taken through glass. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
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Dollar Drifts as Traders Grapple with Tariff Uncertainty, Volatility

A teller counts US dollar bank notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 9, 2025. Picture taken through glass. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
A teller counts US dollar bank notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 9, 2025. Picture taken through glass. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo

The dollar wobbled on Tuesday, languishing near a three-year low against the euro and a six-month trough against the yen it hit last week, as investors struggled to make sense of the back-and-forth changes on US tariffs.

Still, currency markets were a lot calmer in Asian hours after last week's turmoil that badly bruised the dollar despite a surge in Treasury yields, highlighting shaky investor confidence in the greenback and US assets.

The dollar was slightly weaker at 142.99 yen, staying close to the six-month low of 142.05 it touched on Friday. The euro last fetched $1.136, just below the three-year high of $1.1474 hit last week.

After slumping to a 10-year low against the Swiss franc last week, the dollar was 0.2% higher on Tuesday. Still, the dollar is down nearly 8% against the Swiss franc this month, set for its biggest monthly drop since December 2008, Reuters reported.

Market focus has been on the ever-shifting tariff headlines with the US removing smartphones and other electronics from its duties on China over the weekend providing some relief, although comments from President Donald Trump suggested the reprieve is likely to be for a short time.

Trump's imposition and then abrupt postponement of most tariffs on goods imported to the US has sowed confusion, adding to the uncertainty for investors and policymakers around the world.

Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets, said the policy uncertainty and erosion in investor confidence are fuelling a slow but steady rotation out of dollar assets.

"The recent backpedaling on US tariffs has eased some of the acute market anxiety, softening the dollar’s safe-haven appeal in the near term."

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note eased 1.5 basis points to 4.348% after dropping nearly 13 basis points in the previous session.

The yields had risen about 50 bps last week in the biggest weekly gain in over two decades as analysts and investors questioned US bonds' status as the world’s safest assets.

"Last week was all about deleveraging, liquidation, and asset re-allocation out of US assets. This week's tone is calmer in what is a holiday shortened week," said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities.

"Helping to set the tone were dovish comments from Fed officials suggesting they are looking beyond inflation."

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday the Trump administration's tariff policies are a major shock to the US economy that could lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to head off a recession even if inflation remains high.

Traders are pricing in 86 bps of cuts from the Fed for the rest of the year, LSEG data showed.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other units, was at 99.641, not far from the three-year low it touched last week. The index is down over 4% this month, set for its biggest monthly drop since November 2022.

Sterling last bought $1.3215. The Australian dollar rose 0.66% to $0.6369, while the New Zealand dollar surged to its highest in four and half months and was last 0.88% higher at $0.5926.



Oil Set for Second Straight Weekly Decline on Supply Outlook

A view of an oil pump jack on the prairies near Claresholm, Alberta, Canada January 18, 2025. REUTERS/Todd Korol
A view of an oil pump jack on the prairies near Claresholm, Alberta, Canada January 18, 2025. REUTERS/Todd Korol
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Oil Set for Second Straight Weekly Decline on Supply Outlook

A view of an oil pump jack on the prairies near Claresholm, Alberta, Canada January 18, 2025. REUTERS/Todd Korol
A view of an oil pump jack on the prairies near Claresholm, Alberta, Canada January 18, 2025. REUTERS/Todd Korol

Oil prices rose on Friday but were poised for a second straight weekly decline as a potential supply glut and prospects of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal limited gains driven by concerns over disruptions from a blockade of Venezuelan tankers.

Brent crude futures were up 52 cents, or 0.87%, at $60.34 a barrel by ‌1357 GMT ‌while US West Texas Intermediate crude ‌rose ⁠51 ​cents, ‌or 0.9%, to $56.66.

On a weekly basis, the Brent and WTI benchmarks were down 1.3% and 1.4% respectively, according to Reuters.

"That we're ⁠staying down at these levels indicates that the market is awash with ‌oil right now," said Ole Hansen, ‍head of commodity strategy at ‍Saxo Bank. "There's enough oil to mitigate any disruptions."

Uncertainty over ‍how the US would enforce President Donald Trump's intent to block sanctioned tankers from entering and leaving Venezuela tempered geopolitical risk premiums, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said.

Venezuela, which pumps about 1% ​of global oil supplies, on Thursday authorised two unsanctioned cargoes to set sail for China, said two ⁠sources familiar with Venezuela's oil export operations.

Optimism over a potential US-led Ukraine peace deal also eased supply risk concerns, Sycamore said.

However, Bank of America analysts said they expect lower oil prices to curb supply, which could stop prices from going into freefall.

Investors also watched developments in Russia's war in Ukraine after Kyiv ramped up attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure. Ukraine struck a "shadow fleet" oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea with aerial drones for the first time, ‌a Ukrainian official said on Friday.


What are Shipping Companies' Plans for Return to Suez Canal?

Ships move through the Suez Canal, in Ismalia, Egypt, July 31, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany/File Photo
Ships move through the Suez Canal, in Ismalia, Egypt, July 31, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany/File Photo
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What are Shipping Companies' Plans for Return to Suez Canal?

Ships move through the Suez Canal, in Ismalia, Egypt, July 31, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany/File Photo
Ships move through the Suez Canal, in Ismalia, Egypt, July 31, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany/File Photo

Major shipping companies are devising strategies for a potential return to the Suez Canal after two years of disruptions due to security risks in ​the Red Sea.

They have been rerouting vessels via longer, costlier routes around Africa since November 2023, following attacks on commercial ships by Yemen's Houthi militants, reportedly in solidarity with Palestinians during warfare in Gaza.

A ceasefire agreement reached in October has led some companies to explore resumption plans, although security ‌remains a ‌key concern. Below are the latest ‌updates according to Reuters:

MAERSK

The ⁠Danish ​shipping ‌company said on Friday that one of its vessels successfully navigated the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the first time in nearly two years.

Maersk said it has no immediate plans to fully reopen the route and it is not considering a wider ⁠East-West network change back to the trans-Suez corridor, but considers the ‌feat a "stepwise approach" to resuming ‍passage.

CMA CGM

The world's ‍third-largest container shipping line, which has made limited Suez ‍transits when security allows, will use the passage for its India-US INDAMEX service from January, according to a schedule published on its website.

HAPAG-LLOYD

Earlier in December, the German shipping ​group's CEO said the return of the shipping industry to the Suez Canal would be gradual ⁠and there would be a transition period of 60-90 days to adjust logistics and avoid sudden port congestion.

The world's fifth-largest container company did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment. Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk had called for caution in November, saying they were monitoring the situation for evidence of increased security.

WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN

The Norwegian car shipping group is still assessing the situation and will not resume sailing until certain conditions are met, ‌a company spokesperson said on Friday.


Real Estate Balance Platform Regulates Market, Signals Positive Momentum in Riyadh Trading

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
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Real Estate Balance Platform Regulates Market, Signals Positive Momentum in Riyadh Trading

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat) 

Following the Royal Commission for Riyadh City’ s announcement of the results of the electronic draw for purchasing residential land through the Real Estate Balance platform, Asharq Al-Awsat learned that some of the plots allocated to eligible beneficiaries will be sold at prices below SAR 1,500 (about $400) per square meter, depending on their locations.

The land distribution comes in implementation of directives issued by Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman to take the necessary steps to restore balance to Riyadh’s real estate sector.

Under these directives, the Royal Commission for Riyadh City is tasked with providing planned and developed residential land for citizens at a rate of between 10,000 and 40,000 plots annually over the next five years, at prices not exceeding SAR 1,500 per square meter.

On Wednesday, the Commission announced the issuance of the electronic draw results after completing all procedures related to verifying applicants’ eligibility and reviewing objections submitted ahead of the draw.

Competitive Prices

Real estate specialists told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Commission has allocated large tracts of land for sale to eligible beneficiaries in key locations within Riyadh’s urban fabric, noting that the move offers more choices at competitive prices and reflects positively on the overall real estate market in the Saudi capital.

They added that beneficiaries will be able to build homes at costs comparable to the prices of apartments currently offered for sale in northern Riyadh neighborhoods, which proved that the directives of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have translated into tangible outcomes, enabling citizens to obtain their first homes at lower prices.

Price Decline

Real estate specialist Khaled Al-Mobid said that offering more than 6.3 million square meters of land this year through the Real Estate Balance platform aims to inject additional land within the urban area and increase housing supply with high planning quality. He described the step as important in curbing prices, which have risen recently in Riyadh.

He added that the rollout of further land areas through the platform over the next four years will help meet demand from young people and low-income segments, making affordable housing more accessible and facilitating first-home ownership.

Al-Mobid expected the Riyadh real estate market to see a correction in the coming years as the measures directed by the Crown Prince and Prime Minister are fully implemented by the relevant authorities.

Construction Costs

Another real estate specialist, Ahmed Omar Basodan, said that based on the announced locations for beneficiaries of the first batch, recipients will be able to own villas at prices lower than apartments currently offered for sale in the same neighborhoods. He explained that preliminary estimates put the combined cost of land purchase and construction at between SAR 900,000 and SAR 1.2 million.

He added that setting a ceiling price of SAR 1,500 per square meter for land will put downward pressure on prices in those areas, forcing them to retreat and become more affordable. Basodan noted that more than 10,000 plots have been allocated this year through the platform, supporting expanded housing supply, market stability, and improved quality of life.

Electronic Draw

In its latest statement, the Royal Commission for Riyadh City said the electronic draw was conducted under the supervision of an independent committee representing the Royal Commission, the Ministry of Justice, the General Real Estate Authority, Riyadh Municipality, and the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority (SDAIA), using advanced technological systems to ensure fairness and equal opportunity.

The Commission confirmed that the final results are now available on the Real Estate Balance platform, detailing the locations of allocated plots totaling 6.3 million square meters across several Riyadh neighborhoods, including Al-Qirawan, Al-Malqa, Al-Nakheel, Al-Nargis, Namar, Al-Rimayah, Al-Rimal, and Al-Janadriyah.