US, China to Hold Ice-breaker Trade Talks in Geneva on Saturday

FILE PHOTO: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before a House Appropriations subcommittee oversight hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., US, May 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before a House Appropriations subcommittee oversight hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., US, May 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
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US, China to Hold Ice-breaker Trade Talks in Geneva on Saturday

FILE PHOTO: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before a House Appropriations subcommittee oversight hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., US, May 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before a House Appropriations subcommittee oversight hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., US, May 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China's economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend for talks that could be the first step toward resolving a trade war disrupting the global economy.
News of the meeting first announced by Washington late Tuesday sent US equity index futures higher, while stock markets in China and Hong Kong followed suit during Asian trading on Wednesday.
The talks come after weeks of escalating tensions that have seen duties on goods imports between the world's two largest economies soar well beyond 100%, amounting to what Bessent on Tuesday described as the equivalent of a trade embargo.
The impasse, alongside US President Donald Trump's decision last month to slap sweeping duties on dozens of other countries, has upended supply chains, roiled financial markets and stoked fears of a sharp downturn in global growth.
The negotiating teams convening in Geneva are expected to discuss reductions to the broader tariffs, two sources familiar with the planning told Reuters. The two sides are also expected to discuss duties on specific products, US export controls and Trump's decision to end de minimis exemptions on low-value imports, one of the sources said.
China's State Council did not immediately reply to a faxed request for comment.
"My sense is this will be about de-escalation," Bessent told Fox News after the announcement. "We've got to de-escalate before we can move forward."
A Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson later confirmed that China had agreed to meet the US envoys.
"On the basis of fully considering global expectations, China's interests, and the appeals of US industry and consumers, China has decided to re-engage the US," the Chinese statement said.
"There is an old Chinese saying: Listen to what is said, and watch what is done. ... If (the US) says one thing but then does another, or attempts to use talks as a cover to continue coercion and blackmail, China will never agree."
This is the first meeting between senior Chinese and US officials since US Senator Steve Daines met Premier Li Qiang in Beijing in March.
Beijing has largely adopted a fiery rhetoric as tensions with Washington have ratcheted up, repeatedly saying it would not engage in negotiations unless the tariffs were withdrawn.
Signaling a change in tack, however, China's commerce ministry on Friday said it was "evaluating" an offer from Washington to hold talks.
The stakes for China's economy are high, with its vast factory sector already bearing the brunt of the tariffs. Many analysts have downgraded their 2025 economic growth forecast for the Asian giant, while investment bank Nomura has warned the trade war could cost China up to 16 million jobs.
China's central bank on Wednesday announced fresh monetary stimulus, flagging rate cuts and a liquidity injection into the banking system aimed at countering the economic impact of the duties.
Analysts described the move as measured and tactical.
"There’s almost certainly also an element of signaling to the US government ahead of the upcoming meeting," said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics.
"The message is that Chinese officials are not panicked or scrambling to shore up economic growth, and they’re not going to be negotiating from a position of weakness."
MIXED SIGNALS
US officials have held a flurry of meetings with trading partners since the president announced a 10% tariff on most countries on April 2, along with higher tariff rates that will kick in on July 9, barring separate trade agreements.
Trump has also imposed 25% tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum, 25% levies on Canada and Mexico, and 145% tariffs on China, with further duties expected on pharmaceuticals in coming weeks.
China retaliated by boosting its tariffs on US goods to 125%. The European Union is also readying countermeasures.
While Saturday's talks are aimed at easing tensions, it remains unclear how substantive they could prove, said Bo Zhengyuan, partner at Shanghai-based policy consultancy Plenum. "For more comprehensive geopolitical negotiations to be possible, tariffs would need to be lowered first - the key is whether both sides can agree on the extent and scope of tariff rollbacks, as well as on follow-up talks," Bo said.
Bessent told Fox News the two sides would work out during their meeting on Saturday "what to talk about."
"Look, we have a shared interest that this isn't sustainable," Bessent said. "And 145%, 125% is the equivalent of an embargo. We don't want to decouple. What we want is fair trade."
Trump and his trade team have sent mixed signals over progress in talks with major trading partners rushing to cement agreements with Washington and avoid the imposition of hefty import taxes on their goods.
Bessent told lawmakers earlier in the day that the Trump administration was negotiating with 17 major trading partners and could announce trade agreements with some of them as early as this week.
Trump told reporters before a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney that he and top administration officials will review potential trade deals over the next two weeks to decide which ones to accept.
US and Britain have made progress towards a trade deal, a British official said, while Bessent has said many other countries including Indonesia have made good offers to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers, such as subsidies.
Trump's moves on tariffs, which he says are aimed in part at reducing the US trade deficit, are so far having an opposite effect, with the gap hitting a record in March as businesses rushed to import goods ahead of the levies.
Notably, though, the US trade deficit with China narrowed sharply as the crushing levies Trump has imposed cut deeply into Chinese imports.



UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
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UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)

Britain's economic ‌growth prospects this year received the sharpest downgrade of any major economy in the OECD's interim forecast update on Thursday following the US-Israeli war ​on Iran, while inflation is set to rise faster too.

The Paris-based international body cut its 2026 forecast for British economic growth by half a percentage point to 0.7%, compared with a 0.4 percentage point downgrade for the euro zone and a 0.3 percentage point upgrade for the United States.

"Planned fiscal tightening and higher energy prices ‌are anticipated to keep ‌growth subdued in the United ​Kingdom, ‌though the ⁠impact ​will be ⁠attenuated by lower policy rates next year," Reuters quoted the OECD as saying in its report.

Following are further highlights from the report and other context:

Britain's growth forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.

Britain's inflation forecast for 2026 is revised up by 1.5 percentage points from December to 4.0%, the ⁠biggest upward revision of any large, advanced ‌economy.

UK inflation in 2027 ‌is forecast to be 2.6%, 0.5 percentage ​points higher than in ‌December and above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Poorer UK households spend more on gas and electricity than in other rich countries, though total energy spending makes up a smaller share of UK inflation than elsewhere.

The OECD expects the ‌BoE to keep interest rates unchanged this year then cut in Q1 2027 as inflation ⁠eases.

⁠Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility, in forecasts finalized just before the start of the conflict, predicted GDP growth of 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2027.

The BoE this month forecast inflation would rise to 3.0-3.5% over the next couple of quarters.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made boosting growth and reducing the cost of living top goals for his government.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the forecasts showed the war in the Middle East ​was affecting Britain but ​she would still focus on "regional growth, embracing AI and innovation, and establishing a closer relationship with the EU."


Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
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Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Gold prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by increased expectations of US Federal Reserve rate hikes this year as elevated oil prices stoked inflation worries, with investors awaiting clarity on Middle East de-escalation efforts.

Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,451.47 per ounce by 0811 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery lost 2.3% to $4,448.

"You're ‌seeing an ‌acceleration of the idea that... this war will ‌mean ⁠inflation and inflation ⁠will mean a response from central banks, which will mean higher interest rates," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Brent crude futures climbed back above $100 a barrel on concerns that protracted fighting in the Middle East will further disrupt energy flows.

Higher crude prices tend to fuel inflation, and while rising inflation typically boosts gold's appeal ⁠as a hedge, high interest rates weigh on ‌demand for the non-yielding asset.

Markets see ‌a 37% chance of a US rate hike by December this year ‌with almost no chance of a cut now, according to ‌CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Before the conflict, markets were expecting at least two rate cuts.

US President Donald Trump said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign ‌minister who said his country was reviewing a US proposal but had no intention of holding talks ⁠to wind down ⁠the conflict.

"In the next 24 to 48 hours, (gold prices) will just be about reacting to headlines about negotiations," said Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"The really big moves will happen probably at the start of next week when it becomes clearer whether the US launches a ground invasion in Iran over the weekend."

Trump has vowed to hit Iran harder if Tehran fails to accept that the country has been "defeated militarily", White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday.

Spot silver fell 2.7% to $69.36 per ounce. Spot platinum was down 2.3% at $1,874.90, while palladium dropped 2.5% to $1,387.53.


Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
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Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

Oil prices jumped and equities fell Thursday as investors tracked developments in the Middle East amid hopes that US and Iranian officials will bring an end to a conflict that has ramped up fears of an unprecedented global energy crisis.

Markets have been buoyed since late Monday after Donald Trump backed down on a threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and said the two sides were in peace talks.

But while crude prices are down from last week and the mood on trading floors has been better than most of March, uncertainty and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- through which around 20 percent of oil and gas passes -- continue to cast a dark shadow.

Washington presented a 15-point plan to end the war, including Iran giving up its enriched uranium and opening up the waterway, while Tehran's state-run TV reported officials had put forward their own five conditions for hostilities to end.

Trump on Wednesday threatened to "unleash hell" if Iran did not strike a deal, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country does not intend to negotiate.

But the US president also said Iran was taking part in peace talks and the denials were because negotiators feared being killed by their own side.

"Pressure on energy prices, shipping flows and broader financial conditions remains one of the few meaningful sources of leverage (Iran) retains," said Saxo Markets' Charu Chanana.

"There is therefore little incentive to relinquish that leverage prematurely, particularly if market stress strengthens its negotiating position.

However, she added: "It would be imprudent to assume diplomacy is absent simply because it is not visible. In conflicts of this nature, public rhetoric and private negotiation often diverge materially.

"Markets understand this dynamic, and they also tend to inflect before the political endgame is formally in place."

With investors holding on to hope that a deal can be struck, oil prices have stabilized this week, with Brent just above $100 and WTI around $90.

Both contracts rallied Thursday.

Stocks in Wall Street and Europe rose but Asian markets struggled after a two-day rally.

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Sydney, Taipei, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Jakarta fell along with London, Paris and Frankfurt.

City Index's Fiona Cincotta said for any recovery to gain traction, "investors will want to see clearer signs of de-escalation, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz".

Her remarks come after the head of the International Chamber of Commerce, John Denton, warned the conflict could cause the "worst industrial crisis" in decades.

"The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that the world is facing an energy crisis more severe than the oil shocks of the 1970s," he added.

"From a business perspective, we believe this could yet become the worst industrial crisis in living memory."

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization said disruptions to fertilizer supplies posed a double threat to global food security through scarcity and high prices, with a third of the global fertilizer supply normally transiting the Strait of Hormuz.