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Pezeshkian Visits Oman Next Week to Enhance Relations

A handout photo made available by the Iranian Presidential Office shows Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (L) greeting Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi at a meeting in Tehran, Iran, 18 May 2025. EPA/IRANIAN PRESIDENT OFFICE HANDOUT
A handout photo made available by the Iranian Presidential Office shows Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (L) greeting Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi at a meeting in Tehran, Iran, 18 May 2025. EPA/IRANIAN PRESIDENT OFFICE HANDOUT
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Pezeshkian Visits Oman Next Week to Enhance Relations

A handout photo made available by the Iranian Presidential Office shows Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (L) greeting Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi at a meeting in Tehran, Iran, 18 May 2025. EPA/IRANIAN PRESIDENT OFFICE HANDOUT
A handout photo made available by the Iranian Presidential Office shows Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (L) greeting Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi at a meeting in Tehran, Iran, 18 May 2025. EPA/IRANIAN PRESIDENT OFFICE HANDOUT

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is scheduled to visit next week the Sultanate of Oman, the mediator in the ongoing indirect nuclear talks between the US and Iran, official Iranian media reported.

They quoted a spokesman for the presidency as saying that during the visit to Muscat, Pezeshkian will hold bilateral meetings with senior officials.

The announcement came one day after Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi held talks with the Iranian President and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the Tehran Dialogue Forum.

Oman’s Foreign Ministry, which has been acting as a mediator between Tehran and Washington since April 12, will officially reveal the time and location of the fifth round of indirect nuclear talks between the two sides.

Last week, the US and Iran concluded a fourth round of nuclear talks in Muscat amid cautious optimism about a new accord that would prevent Tehran from having a nuclear weapon.

During his meeting with Albusaidi, Pezeshkian said that his upcoming trip to Oman will serve as a turning point in deepening relations between the two sides.

He praised bilateral relations between Iran and Oman, and hailed Muscat for its benevolent, committed, and constructive role in hosting the indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

“We hope that through the sincere and genuine efforts and intentions of Sultan Haitham bin Tarik, these talks will lead to a just agreement that ensures lasting peace and stability in the region,” said Pezeshkian.

Later, Omani and Iranian foreign ministers held a meeting to discuss the nuclear issue.

“The two ministers discussed a range of ideas and proposals related to the ongoing Iranian-American talks aimed at reaching an agreement that fairly, practically and bindingly addresses the concerns and interests of both parties, and contributes to regional security and stability,” Oman’s official news agency said in a statement.

Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani then joined the meeting and the three ministers discussed the Iranian-US nuclear talks.

The meeting hoped Washington and Tehran will reach a fair, durable, and binding agreement, one that reinforces security, stability, and peace across the region, while elevating new heights for regional cooperation and dialogue.

Later at the Tehran Dialogue Forum, Oman’s Foreign Minister expressed optimism regarding recent signals, particularly from Washington, which he said may reflect a shift towards a more realistic and flexible approach to identifying viable dialogue partners.
He underlined that dialogue is not an easy option, but added that it is the only viable path to achieving a just settlement.

“While this development comes amid military escalation and immense humanitarian suffering, it points to a renewed willingness for genuine dialogue — even as Tel Aviv continues to avoid it through intensifying conflict on multiple fronts,” Albusaidi said.

Commenting on Pezeshkian’s visit to Oman, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said: “The visit of high-ranking Iranian and Omani officials to Muscat and Tehran is a normal thing and there are good relations between the two countries.”

He added: “The President's visit to Oman has been on the agenda for some time and this visit will be carried out and its details will be announced by the President's Office.”

The Iranian President’s upcoming trip to Oman comes following a visit to Baku last month.

Like Iran’s previous government, Pezeshkian's administration, which has been in office since August 2024, has articulated a “neighborly policy” that has at its core improved relations with Iran's Arab neighbors.

In May 2023, Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said visited Tehran for talks that focused on regional diplomatic and security issues. His visit was the first since he took office in 2020. It came a year after former President Ebrahim Raisi visited the Sultanate.

Iran, which faces a deteriorating economy hit by US sanctions, is seeking to strengthen its trade ties with Muscat.

Last February, Iran’s Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Mohammad Atabak said his country exported approximately $1.146 billion worth of goods to Oman in the first nine months of 2024, marking a 15% increase compared to the same period last year.

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World

Mounting Pressure on Iran Revives the Specter of the 2000 Aden Attack

US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush
US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush
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Mounting Pressure on Iran Revives the Specter of the 2000 Aden Attack

US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush
US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush

US author Anne-Marie Slaughter argues in The Chessboard and the Web: Strategies of Connection in a Networked World that the world no longer operates or interacts according to the logic of a traditional chessboard.

The old model was linear and two-dimensional, centered on a single objective: toppling the king by controlling territory.

That logic no longer defines 21st-century conflict. Today’s world operates across overlapping, interlocking layers that interact and often collide simultaneously, within a continuously evolving network that includes military, economic, political, alliance, and informational dimensions.

As this network evolves, it generates both solutions and complications so rapidly that they outpace the ability of leadership to make timely decisions. Improvisation comes to dominate decision-making, errors multiply and accumulate, feeding back into the system and further deepening its complexity.

On the escalation ladder

Escalation depends on strategic flexibility and the tools available. In practical terms, the greater the flexibility, the greater the ability of actors to climb the escalation ladder, from low-intensity conflict to higher levels, until reaching a peak where one side yields, either on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.

But this climb is inherently a trap. Each step builds on the last. As these steps accumulate over time, the cost compounds, making it increasingly difficult to step back without incurring significant losses.

The US blockade

This is not the first time the US Navy has imposed a maritime blockade. The most notable case was Cuba in the 1960s during the Cuban Missile Crisis, labeled a “quarantine,” a term deliberately used to indicate a measure short of full wartime blockade. Cuba’s geography made it relatively easy to encircle.

A similar approach was later applied to Venezuela. Today, the focus has shifted to Iranian ports, both inside and outside the Gulf.

Direct comparisons are limited by differing contexts. Still, one constant remains: the US Navy possesses the capability to enforce such blockades, particularly given its dominance over global seas and oceans.

In Cuba, Soviet missiles targeted major US cities and the world was divided between two superpowers. In Venezuela, President Donald Trump invoked the Monroe Doctrine and implemented a national security strategy prioritizing the Western Hemisphere and America’s immediate sphere.

The Strait of Hormuz, however, is fundamentally different. Other waterways can be bypassed; Hormuz cannot. It is a closed corridor through which oil, gas, petrochemicals, helium, fertilizers, and other critical goods must pass. There is no alternative route; all shipments must transit Hormuz in both directions.

Iran’s strategy

Since the Shah’s era, aligned with the Nixon Doctrine, Tehran has pursued control over Gulf waters and influence over the Strait of Hormuz. The continued occupation of the UAE islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa since the 1970s underscores this long-standing strategic objective.

More than 30 islands are scattered across the Gulf’s deep waters, precisely along the routes used by oil tankers that require significant depth to pass safely. If linked together as part of a military-security network, they reveal long-term planning for scenarios such as the current one.

Iran’s naval doctrine relies on both the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy, employing small submarines, torpedoes, fast attack boats, naval mines, drones, and ballistic missiles.

At its core lies an anti-access strategy designed to deny adversaries freedom of movement in Gulf waters.

Centers of gravity

Qeshm Island is critical for controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz. Kharg Island follows, serving as the hub for more than 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports, supplied by the oil fields of Khuzestan.

Beyond the islands, the South Pars gas field in Bushehr province is central to Iran’s energy system, providing more than 70 percent of the country’s domestic electricity needs.

These key sites have already been targeted during the conflict by US or Israeli airpower. To expand the scope of escalation and increase pressure, Trump deployed additional forces, including Marine units and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division, aimed at broadening military options and forcing Iran to soften its negotiating position. After talks in Pakistan failed, he moved to announce the blockade.

The current US approach

By declaring the blockade, Trump effectively altered the existing rules of engagement in the Gulf, imposing an asymmetric approach that avoids Iran’s strengths and prevents it from dictating the battlefield dynamics.

Instead, the US leverages distance, operating from the Arabian Sea, along with its technological superiority and strategic flexibility.

This effectively turns Iran’s own strategy against it. What once constrained US freedom of movement inside the Gulf is now being used to impose external pressure on Iran from the Arabian Sea.

If successful, the strategy could deprive Iran, according to The Wall Street Journal, of roughly $435 million per day, or $13 billion per month, while avoiding the costs of direct military action such as seizing islands like Kharg.

It would also confine Iran’s asymmetric capabilities within the Gulf and strip it of its most effective operational tools.

The central question now is how Iran will respond. How will it adapt its strategy in the face of this pressure? Will escalation continue? And could that escalation take the form of a maritime attack similar to the 2000 strike on the US destroyer USS Cole near Aden?

World

Iran Can Go up to Two Months without Oil Exports Before Cutting Output, Analysts Say

A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)
A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)
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Iran Can Go up to Two Months without Oil Exports Before Cutting Output, Analysts Say

A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)
A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)

Iran can withstand a complete halt in oil exports of up to two months before being forced to curb production, analysts said, after the US began blocking shipping in and out of the country's ports on April 13.

The blockade could prevent roughly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude from reaching its main buyer China.

Any Iranian production shutdowns would add to more than 12 million bpd of supply already disrupted by the regional war, tightening markets further and ‌lifting oil ‌prices.

With its exports blocked, Iran faces having to ‌divert ⁠crude into onshore storage ⁠tanks. Once those tanks are filled, the OPEC member would be required to curb upstream output.

Consultancy FGE NextantECA estimates Iran has about 90 million barrels of available onshore crude storage capacity, out of total capacity of roughly 122 million barrels.

"Iran can sustain current production of around 3.5 million bpd for roughly two months without exports, extendable to around three months with a modest ⁠500,000 bpd production cut," FGE NextantECA said in a ‌note.

Iranian domestic refineries process about 2 million ‌bpd of oil, they added.

The relevant Iranian authorities were not immediately available for comment.

Energy ‌Aspects assumes significantly lower available onshore storage of about 30 million barrels, ‌based on data from Kayrros.

Under that scenario, Iran could maintain current export levels for about 16 days before storage capacity runs out, based on export levels of 1.8 million bpd.

"The blockade may not have a significant impact on Iranian production in ‌April, but if it continues into May then output would need to be reduced substantially," said Richard ⁠Bronze, co-founder of Energy ⁠Aspects.

He said the consultancy assumes Iran cannot utilize its full nameplate storage capacity, adding that historic data show stocks peaked at 92 million barrels in May 2020, which likely marks a realistic ceiling.

Bronze also said Iran will likely deploy available oil tankers in ports as floating storage, delaying production cuts.

The US military said more vessels were being turned back under the blockade, including the Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry, which is under US sanctions and which was seen heading back through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.

Eight Iran-linked oil tankers have been intercepted since the blockade began on Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported. A US destroyer stopped two tankers attempting to leave Iran's Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday, a US official said.

World

World Bank Announces Water Security Plan for One Billion People

A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
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World Bank Announces Water Security Plan for One Billion People

A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)

The World Bank announced a plan Wednesday that aims to improve secure water access for a billion people within the next four years.

The new "Water Forward" program aims to "expand reliable water services and strengthen systems against droughts and floods."

The Bank said its own funds and technical advice would help improve water supplies to some 400 million people by 2030, with the balance coming from partners.

Regional development banks, OPEC's development fund, and the BRICS-aligned New Development Bank are among institutions that will participate, the World Bank said.

The global lender did not specify how much capital it would commit to the initiative.

Some four billion people -- half the world's population -- face water scarcity, due in part to "unclear policies, weak regulations, and financially unsustainable utilities that have slowed progress and deterred investment," the Bank said.

The global lender said that 14 countries had already voluntarily committed to reform and strengthen their water sectors under the new program.

The focus on governance issues -- not simply physical water infrastructure -- is promising, David Michel, senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said.

"In many countries, the water sector fails to fully deploy the funds already allocated to it."

However, the Bank's initiative "faces a long and difficult road ahead," he warned.

The issue of access to safe drinking water, in particular, has been highlighted during the war in the Middle East, with desalination plants in Iran and across the region damaged in bombardments.

Beyond conflicts and immediate drinking water needs, the World Bank said that better water security was needed to grow the global economy.

"Strong water systems are foundational to healthy economies that can attract private investment and create jobs," the Bank said.