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Turkish Cenbank Keeps Inflation Forecast at 24%

Turkish Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan speaks during a press conference in Istanbul, Türkiye, May 22, 2025. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
Turkish Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan speaks during a press conference in Istanbul, Türkiye, May 22, 2025. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
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Turkish Cenbank Keeps Inflation Forecast at 24%

Turkish Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan speaks during a press conference in Istanbul, Türkiye, May 22, 2025. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
Turkish Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan speaks during a press conference in Istanbul, Türkiye, May 22, 2025. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya

Türkiye's central bank left its year-end inflation forecast unchanged at 24% on Thursday but Governor Fatih Karahan said it is ready to tighten policy if inflation worsens, after having pivoted to raising interest rates last month.

Presenting the bank's quarterly inflation report in Istanbul, Karahan said steps taken by the bank had hindered a serious deterioration in inflation expectations and that the fall in inflation would continue in the rest of 2025.

Last month, the bank tightened its policy rate by 350 basis points and set the lending rate at 49% in response to market turmoil that erupted in March over the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival.

In Thursday's report, the central bank kept its year-end inflation mid-point forecast at 24% while leaving its end-2026 projection unchanged at 12% and end-2027 inflation at 8%, Reuters reported.

The central bank commonly adjusts its end-year inflation forecast, and last left it unchanged in August last year.

The lira, which had weakened sharply after the mayor's arrest, was at 38.85 against the dollar on Thursday as the inflation briefing continued - firmer than its close of 38.8835 on Wednesday.

"We will be always ready to tighten our monetary policy stance in case we foresee a significant and persistent deterioration in inflation," Karahan said at the briefing.

He said the outlook shows that the tight stance in policy should continue and the bank will take necessary precautions if demand conditions impact the inflation outlook negatively.

Inflation risks are upward right now and the bank has the flexibility to set its funding rate above the policy rate with its tools, he said, noting that the recent tightening came when the bank was in a cutting cycle, so the impact would be higher.

Karahan added that a slowdown in economic growth would be more evident due to the tightening and this would support disinflation.

Before the latest rate hike, the central bank had begun an easing cycle and cut its policy rate to 42.5% as inflation fell from the level of more than 75% reached in May 2024.

The market turbulence triggered in March by Imamoglu's arrest on corruption charges - which he denies - also drained central bank reserves and caused sharp foreign outflows, notably in the bond market.

But inflows have since resumed and the central bank returned to being a buyer of forex this month, purchasing billions of forex in a rebound after nearly two months of declines in which it had sold $57 billion since mid-March.

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Business

Japan PM Reassures Markets with Fiscal Discipline in Next Year’s Budget

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech at the 14th Council Meeting of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, in Tokyo on December 25, 2025. (AFP)
Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech at the 14th Council Meeting of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, in Tokyo on December 25, 2025. (AFP)
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Japan PM Reassures Markets with Fiscal Discipline in Next Year’s Budget

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech at the 14th Council Meeting of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, in Tokyo on December 25, 2025. (AFP)
Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech at the 14th Council Meeting of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, in Tokyo on December 25, 2025. (AFP)

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi sought on Thursday to ease market concerns over her expansionary fiscal policy, saying the government's draft budget maintains discipline by limiting reliance on debt.

There has been growing investor unease about fiscal expansion under Takaichi's administration, which has driven super-long government bond yields to record highs and weighed on the yen.

The budget for the year starting in April, to be finalized on Friday and submitted to parliament early in 2026, ‌will total 122.3 trillion ‌yen ($785.4 billion), Takaichi told ruling coalition executives.

The huge ‌spending ⁠will come ‌on top of a 21.3 trillion-yen stimulus package, compiled in November and funded by a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, that focused on cushioning the blow to households from rising living costs.

Despite the record size, new government bond issuance for the next fiscal year will be capped at 29.6 trillion yen, staying below 30 trillion yen for a second straight year, ⁠she said.

The reliance on debt will fall to 24.2% from 24.9% in the initial fiscal 2025 ‌budget, which dipped below 30% for the ‍first time in 27 years, she said. ‍The 24.2% debt dependence ratio would be the lowest since 1998.

"We ‍believe this draft budget strikes a balance between fiscal discipline and achieving a strong economy while ensuring fiscal sustainability," Takaichi said.

In a separate speech at Japanese business lobby Keidanren, Takaichi said that her "responsible, proactive" fiscal policy means strategic spending with a long-term perspective.

"It does not mean expanding expenditures indiscriminately based solely on scale," she said.

In a report to clients, Yusuke Matsuo, ⁠Mizuho Securities' senior market economist, said Takaichi would still need to promote proactive fiscal spending to avoid alienating her political base. He added that financial markets could be reassured if the government sticks to a less aggressive stance on spending.

Signaling a shift in the government's reflationary policy push, private-sector members of a government panel on Thursday called on the government to clearly show the public how the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio can be steadily reduced under Takaichi's government.

The four private-sector members include former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe and economist Toshihiro Nagahama - known as reflationist aides of Takaichi.

Their proposals were discussed at ‌the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP), which oversees Japan's fiscal blueprint and long-term economic policies.

Business

Asian Shares are Mixed after US Stocks Drift to More Records

Currency dealers monitor exchange rates as a screen (R) shows South Korea's benchmark stock index in a foreign exchange dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on November 5, 2025. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP)
Currency dealers monitor exchange rates as a screen (R) shows South Korea's benchmark stock index in a foreign exchange dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on November 5, 2025. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP)
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Asian Shares are Mixed after US Stocks Drift to More Records

Currency dealers monitor exchange rates as a screen (R) shows South Korea's benchmark stock index in a foreign exchange dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on November 5, 2025. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP)
Currency dealers monitor exchange rates as a screen (R) shows South Korea's benchmark stock index in a foreign exchange dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on November 5, 2025. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP)

Asian shares were mixed Thursday in thin holiday trading, with most markets in the region and elsewhere closed for Christmas.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 edged 0.1% higher to 50,407.79. It has gained nearly 30% this year.

The dollar slipped to 155.85 Japanese yen from 155.94 yen. The euro climbed to $1.1786 from $1.1780.

Markets in mainland China advanced, with the Shanghai Composite index up 0.5% at 3,959.62. Hong Kong's exchange was closed, The Associated Press said.

Investors were encouraged by a statement by the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, promising to ensure adequate money supply to support financing, economic growth and inflation targets. Earlier in the week, the PBOC had opted to keep its key short-term lending rates unchanged.

Shares fell in Thailand and Indonesia.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 6,932.05 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6% to close at 48,731.16. The Nasdaq composite added 0.2% to 23,613.31

Trading was extremely light as markets closed early for Christmas Eve and will be closed for Christmas on Thursday. US markets will reopen for a full day of trading on Friday, though volumes will likely remain light this week with most investors having closed out their positions for the year.

The S&P 500 is up more than 17% this year, as investors have embraced the deregulatory policies of the Trump administration and been optimistic about the future of artificial intelligence in helping boost profits for not only technology companies but also for Corporate America.

Much of the focus for investors for the next few weeks will be on where the US economy is heading and where the Federal Reserve will move interest rates. Investors are betting the Fed will hold steady on interest rates at its January meeting.

The US economy grew at a surprisingly strong 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter, the most rapid expansion in two years, driven by consumers who continue to spend despite strong inflation. There have also been recent reports showing shaky confidence among consumers worried about high prices. The labor market has been slowing and retail sales have weakened.

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell last week and remain at historically healthy levels despite some signs that the labor market is weakening.

US applications for jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 20 fell by 10,000 to 214,000 from the previous week’s 224,000, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. That’s below the 232,000 new applications forecast of analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet.

Dynavax Technologies soared 38.2% after Sanofi said it was acquiring the California-based vaccine maker in a deal worth $2.2 billion. The French drugmaker will add Dynavax’s hepatitis B vaccines to its portfolio, as well as a shingles vaccine that is still in development.

Novo Nordisk's shares rose 1.8% after the weight-loss drug company got approval from US regulators for a pill version of its blockbuster drug Wegovy. However, Novo Nordisk shares are still down almost 40% this year as the company has faced increased competition for weight-loss medications, particularly from Eli Lilly. Shares of Eli Lilly are up 40% this year.

US crude oil closed at $58.35 a barrel and Brent crude finished at $61.80 a barrel.

Business

Saudi PIF Backs Multibillion-Dollar Projects to Boost Sustainability

A solar power project in Saudi Arabia (SPA)
A solar power project in Saudi Arabia (SPA)
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Saudi PIF Backs Multibillion-Dollar Projects to Boost Sustainability

A solar power project in Saudi Arabia (SPA)
A solar power project in Saudi Arabia (SPA)

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has fully allocated the proceeds of its green bond issuance, directing $9 billion to eligible projects, in a move that highlights the sovereign wealth fund’s growing role in shaping a more sustainable future and delivering lasting positive impact worldwide.

According to a recent report issued by the Public Investment Fund, reviewed by Asharq Al-Awsat, the expected impact of the fund’s eligible green projects includes generating 427 megawatts of renewable energy, avoiding emissions equivalent to 5.1 million tons of carbon dioxide, and treating 4 million cubic meters of wastewater.

The Public Investment Fund aims to establish itself as an active participant in global debt markets, while also fostering the development of a dynamic domestic market. This would enable the fund to access short- or long-term liquidity through a diverse range of financing instruments.

Financing strategy

The fund’s capital markets program aims to further strengthen its financing strategy and execution capabilities, both at the level of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund and across its portfolio companies, while enabling deeper engagement with global and local debt markets.

The program will also support expanding the fund’s capacity to raise debt and deploy it as a source of investment financing, in line with its overall funding strategy. This approach is designed to instill greater discipline in cash flow management and enhance returns on equity for the fund and its portfolio companies.

The green bond issuance will provide the fund with access to a broader pool of investors who prioritize environmental, social, and governance considerations in their investment decisions. It will also allow investors to diversify their portfolios through green assets, a step expected to help accelerate the pace of green investment globally.

Climate change

The fund has taken concrete steps to advance governance and policy, focusing on sustainability, and is a founding member of the One Planet Sovereign Wealth Funds initiative. This international platform aims to accelerate the integration of climate change considerations into asset management decisions and investment opportunities.

As an investment vehicle, the Public Investment Fund operates through acquiring stakes in companies aligned with its mandate, including ACWA Power and Lucid.

It has also established the Saudi Investment Recycling Company, a leader in waste management and recycling, manages the National Energy Services Company, Tarshid, and supports the creation of a voluntary carbon market in the Middle East and North Africa.

These efforts aim to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s position as one of the world’s most energy-efficient countries.

The green bond issuance will finance tangible projects on the ground, helping to accelerate the green transition and advance the Kingdom’s core targets of achieving net zero emissions by 2060 and generating 50 percent of electricity consumption from renewable energy sources by 2030.

This forms a key pillar of the renewable energy program implemented by the fund, which involves developing 70 percent of renewable power generation capacity.