Concerns are growing in Lebanon after the United States' reluctance to step in, either directly or through the International Monitoring Committee overseeing the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement, and prevent Israel from further escalating its strikes in the country.
On Thursday, the Israeli military struck several buildings in Beirut’s southern suburbs that it said held underground facilities used by Hezbollah for drone production. The strikes, preceded by an Israeli warning to evacuate several buildings, came on the eve of Eid al-Adha.
What aggravated the Lebanese concerns was Israel’s prior notification to the United States of its plan to target these buildings, which were later found not to be used by Hezbollah for manufacturing drones.
According to official Lebanese sources who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on condition of anonymity, they said that Washington acknowledged that the buildings were not used by Hezbollah and directed blame at Tel Aviv citing that Israel’s justifications were unfounded.
But the US criticism of Tel Aviv is unlikely to deter the latter from carrying out further aggression against Lebanon, amid the failure of the monitoring committee to address Israel’s violations.
Washington blaming Israel will not change the reality on the ground as long as it enjoys a US cover that allows it to maintain pressure on Lebanon to set a timeline for Hezbollah’s disarmament linked to its own withdrawal from the south.
But Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have reiterated commitment to limiting weapons to the state’s control and urged the international community to pressure Israel into withdrawing from southern Lebanon.
Ministerial sources said that President Aoun stands firm in his position and is in ongoing communication with Hezbollah leadership paving way for dialogue aimed at ensuring the state’s exclusive control over arms once conditions are ripe for implementation.
The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hezbollah has no choice but to engage in serious dialogue, which is not intended as a stalling tactic while awaiting the outcome of US-Iranian negotiations on the nuclear file.
They also assure that Lebanon is committed to the continued presence of the monitoring committee overseeing the implementation of the ceasefire.
They point out that the upcoming dialogue with Hezbollah on securing the state’s exclusive control over weapons is a cornerstone of Lebanon’s national security strategy.
The sources question the absence of the US engagement in Lebanon mainly regarding the military developments and Israel’s escalation. They highlight that Lebanon is witnessing one of its darkest times compounded by Washington’s dismissal of Morgan Ortagus, the deputy special envoy for the Middle East, from handling the Lebanese file.
This move has left US Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson, and the entire Lebanese state, in a state of uncertainty, as Washington is reportedly considering sending Ambassador Thomas Barrett, although no official date has been announced for his arrival in Beirut.
Barrett is currently the US envoy to Türkiye and recently appointed by President Donald Trump as special envoy to Syria.
On the other hand, political sources interpret the current absence of the US role, and Israel’s unrestricted freedom to act against Hezbollah’s remaining military capabilities, as a deliberate strategy it uses to safeguard its borders.
It also links withdrawal from south Lebanon to a timeline for containing Hezbollah’s weapons and limiting it to the state’s control.
The White House endorses the principle of linking Israel’s withdrawal to Hezbollah’s disarmament as “it was crafted in the United States”, according to MPs who frequently visit Washington.
Lebanon has no choice but to adhere to that, viewing it as a mandatory passage to bring a political end to the Iranian interference in the region with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and to enter a new political phase for the Mediterranean country.
