Oil Up as Market Watches US-China Trade Talks

FILE - Pumpjacks are seen before sunrise in Hobbs, N.M., Feb. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)
FILE - Pumpjacks are seen before sunrise in Hobbs, N.M., Feb. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)
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Oil Up as Market Watches US-China Trade Talks

FILE - Pumpjacks are seen before sunrise in Hobbs, N.M., Feb. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)
FILE - Pumpjacks are seen before sunrise in Hobbs, N.M., Feb. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of US-China talks that could pave the way for easing trade tensions and improve fuel demand.

Brent crude futures rose 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $67.32 a barrel by 0330 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 23 cents, or 0.4%, at $65.52.

On Monday, Brent had risen to $67.19, the highest since April 28, buoyed by the prospect of a US-China trade deal, Reuters said.

US-China trade talks were set to continue for a second day in London as top officials aimed to ease tensions that have expanded from tariffs to rare earth curbs, risking global supply chain disruptions and slower growth.

Prices have recovered as demand concerns have faded with the trade talks between Washington and Beijing and a favorable US jobs report, while there are risks to North American supply due to wildfires in Canada, Goldman Sachs analysts said.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the talks with China were going well and he was "only getting good reports" from his team in London.

A trade deal between the US and China could support the global economic outlook and boost demand for commodities including oil.

Elsewhere, Iran said it would soon hand a counter-proposal for a nuclear deal to the US in response to a US offer that Tehran deems "unacceptable", while Trump made clear that the two sides remained at odds over whether the country would be allowed to continue enriching uranium on Iranian soil.

Iran is the third-largest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and any easing of US sanctions on Iran would allow it to export more oil, weighing on global crude prices.

OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world's oil and includes OPEC members and allies such as Russia, is accelerating its plan to unwind its most recent layer of output cuts.

"The prospect of further hikes in OPEC supply continues to hang over the market," Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a note.

"A permanent shift to a market driven strategy (in OPEC) would push the oil market into a sizeable surplus in H2 2025 and almost surely lead to lower oil prices."



UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
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UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)

Britain's economic ‌growth prospects this year received the sharpest downgrade of any major economy in the OECD's interim forecast update on Thursday following the US-Israeli war ​on Iran, while inflation is set to rise faster too.

The Paris-based international body cut its 2026 forecast for British economic growth by half a percentage point to 0.7%, compared with a 0.4 percentage point downgrade for the euro zone and a 0.3 percentage point upgrade for the United States.

"Planned fiscal tightening and higher energy prices ‌are anticipated to keep ‌growth subdued in the United ​Kingdom, ‌though the ⁠impact ​will be ⁠attenuated by lower policy rates next year," Reuters quoted the OECD as saying in its report.

Following are further highlights from the report and other context:

Britain's growth forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.

Britain's inflation forecast for 2026 is revised up by 1.5 percentage points from December to 4.0%, the ⁠biggest upward revision of any large, advanced ‌economy.

UK inflation in 2027 ‌is forecast to be 2.6%, 0.5 percentage ​points higher than in ‌December and above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Poorer UK households spend more on gas and electricity than in other rich countries, though total energy spending makes up a smaller share of UK inflation than elsewhere.

The OECD expects the ‌BoE to keep interest rates unchanged this year then cut in Q1 2027 as inflation ⁠eases.

⁠Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility, in forecasts finalized just before the start of the conflict, predicted GDP growth of 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2027.

The BoE this month forecast inflation would rise to 3.0-3.5% over the next couple of quarters.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made boosting growth and reducing the cost of living top goals for his government.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the forecasts showed the war in the Middle East ​was affecting Britain but ​she would still focus on "regional growth, embracing AI and innovation, and establishing a closer relationship with the EU."


Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
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Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Gold prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by increased expectations of US Federal Reserve rate hikes this year as elevated oil prices stoked inflation worries, with investors awaiting clarity on Middle East de-escalation efforts.

Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,451.47 per ounce by 0811 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery lost 2.3% to $4,448.

"You're ‌seeing an ‌acceleration of the idea that... this war will ‌mean ⁠inflation and inflation ⁠will mean a response from central banks, which will mean higher interest rates," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Brent crude futures climbed back above $100 a barrel on concerns that protracted fighting in the Middle East will further disrupt energy flows.

Higher crude prices tend to fuel inflation, and while rising inflation typically boosts gold's appeal ⁠as a hedge, high interest rates weigh on ‌demand for the non-yielding asset.

Markets see ‌a 37% chance of a US rate hike by December this year ‌with almost no chance of a cut now, according to ‌CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Before the conflict, markets were expecting at least two rate cuts.

US President Donald Trump said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign ‌minister who said his country was reviewing a US proposal but had no intention of holding talks ⁠to wind down ⁠the conflict.

"In the next 24 to 48 hours, (gold prices) will just be about reacting to headlines about negotiations," said Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"The really big moves will happen probably at the start of next week when it becomes clearer whether the US launches a ground invasion in Iran over the weekend."

Trump has vowed to hit Iran harder if Tehran fails to accept that the country has been "defeated militarily", White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday.

Spot silver fell 2.7% to $69.36 per ounce. Spot platinum was down 2.3% at $1,874.90, while palladium dropped 2.5% to $1,387.53.


Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
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Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

Oil prices jumped and equities fell Thursday as investors tracked developments in the Middle East amid hopes that US and Iranian officials will bring an end to a conflict that has ramped up fears of an unprecedented global energy crisis.

Markets have been buoyed since late Monday after Donald Trump backed down on a threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and said the two sides were in peace talks.

But while crude prices are down from last week and the mood on trading floors has been better than most of March, uncertainty and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- through which around 20 percent of oil and gas passes -- continue to cast a dark shadow.

Washington presented a 15-point plan to end the war, including Iran giving up its enriched uranium and opening up the waterway, while Tehran's state-run TV reported officials had put forward their own five conditions for hostilities to end.

Trump on Wednesday threatened to "unleash hell" if Iran did not strike a deal, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country does not intend to negotiate.

But the US president also said Iran was taking part in peace talks and the denials were because negotiators feared being killed by their own side.

"Pressure on energy prices, shipping flows and broader financial conditions remains one of the few meaningful sources of leverage (Iran) retains," said Saxo Markets' Charu Chanana.

"There is therefore little incentive to relinquish that leverage prematurely, particularly if market stress strengthens its negotiating position.

However, she added: "It would be imprudent to assume diplomacy is absent simply because it is not visible. In conflicts of this nature, public rhetoric and private negotiation often diverge materially.

"Markets understand this dynamic, and they also tend to inflect before the political endgame is formally in place."

With investors holding on to hope that a deal can be struck, oil prices have stabilized this week, with Brent just above $100 and WTI around $90.

Both contracts rallied Thursday.

Stocks in Wall Street and Europe rose but Asian markets struggled after a two-day rally.

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Sydney, Taipei, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Jakarta fell along with London, Paris and Frankfurt.

City Index's Fiona Cincotta said for any recovery to gain traction, "investors will want to see clearer signs of de-escalation, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz".

Her remarks come after the head of the International Chamber of Commerce, John Denton, warned the conflict could cause the "worst industrial crisis" in decades.

"The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that the world is facing an energy crisis more severe than the oil shocks of the 1970s," he added.

"From a business perspective, we believe this could yet become the worst industrial crisis in living memory."

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization said disruptions to fertilizer supplies posed a double threat to global food security through scarcity and high prices, with a third of the global fertilizer supply normally transiting the Strait of Hormuz.