Russia, China, and Iran are holding crucial consultations in Tehran on Tuesday to coordinate their positions ahead of the European Troika meeting in Geneva next week, focusing on discussions related to the threat of reimposed UN sanctions under the 2015 nuclear deal’s snapback mechanism.
Britain, France and Germany, known as the E3, have warned they would use the mechanism, which would reimpose international sanctions on Iran, if there was no progress on nuclear talks by the end of August.
Russian experts warned forceful pressure on Iran would only further exacerbate the situation, pushing Tehran to take steps that would most likely derail chances of a new nuclear deal.
Lately, Iran has not been impressed with Russia's support as the country wants Russian President Vladimir Putin to do more to back it against Israel and the United States.
Observers have questioned the Kremlin's ability to provide serious assistance to the Iranians amid Moscow's preoccupation with the war in Ukraine, and its unwillingness to engage in a direct confrontation with the United States and Israel.
Ahead of Tuesday’s meeting in Tehran, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, told Izvestia newspaper that the European troika has lost the right to resume international sanctions against Iran.
“The E3 has no legal or moral right to launch the so-called snapback mechanism to reimpose anti-Iranian sanctions,” he said.
The Russian diplomat added that Britain, France, and Germany, known as the E3, have repeatedly violated the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal, and thus forfeited their right to trigger the snapback mechanism.
Meanwhile, state-run Russian news agencies quoted the representative of the UN Secretary General, Stephane Dujarric, as saying that the countries participating in the JCPOA had not notified the world organization of their intention to launch a mechanism to restore sanctions against Iran.
“Thus, for now, such threats from Europe remain at the level of words. It is likely that this is an attempt to play on Iran's fears and scare the elite with the return of sanctions,” orientalist Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia.
He added that despite the fact that the “snapback mechanism” implies an “instant return” to sanctions, the launch process itself takes about 30 days.
In return, some Russian observers say the E3 rush to implement the snapback before October, when Russia assumes the Security Council presidency.
“The rush of the European powers is due to the desire to fully introduce the mechanism until the moment when Russia takes over the presidency of the Security Council, that is, until October 2025,” Tsukanov said.
In this case, he added, the troika proceeds from the fact that its actions are legitimate, since the United States withdrew from the deal unilaterally in 2018, and Iran has significantly reduced its obligations over the past few years.
Russian Mediation
The E3 had promised not to impose sanctions if Tehran removes about 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60% from the country, and also agrees to resume monitoring by the IAEA, which Iran has suspended, according to Axios.
When the initial Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was concluded, Moscow and Tehran agreed to export to Russia low-enriched uranium produced in Iran with a volume of more than 300 kg, Ulyanov recalled. He did not rule out that the Russian Federation may reimpose this agreement.
“In principle, I see no reason why such a scheme could not continue to be implemented if it would help resolve differences between Tehran and the Westerners over the Iranian nuclear program,” the diplomat said.
Ulyanov also said that Russia agrees to mediate between Iran and the United States to resolve the issue surrounding the nuclear deal at the request of both sides.
“Of course, we are ready to help resolve the problems surrounding the Iranian nuclear program through political and diplomatic means. We have been following this line for many years now, and it has repeatedly brought positive results. We are ready to play a mediating role now, if both contracting parties request it,” he said.
Recently, reports suggested Western countries could turn to Russia for guarantees that Iran would not work on developing nuclear weapons, Ulyanov noted. However, according to him, such guarantees will be extremely difficult to implement.
“I don't know anything about such requests. It is quite difficult to imagine how this idea can be put into practice. At the end, such guarantees should be provided by Iran, as well as the International Atomic Energy Agency, whose mandate includes verifying the use of atomic energy exclusively for peaceful purposes,” the diplomat added.
Meanwhile, Farhad Ibragimov, an expert in Oriental studies, told Izvestia that the ultimatum of the European troika and further threats from Washington may lead to Iran withdrawing from the nuclear deal and becoming actively engaged in its nuclear program.
In this regard, Moscow and Tehran held several meetings aimed at clarifying their positions, and to assess Russia’s ability to support Tehran amid the escalating Western pressure.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and his Iranian counterpart Aziz Nasirzadeh discussed strengthening military cooperation at a meeting in Moscow, Russian state news agency RIA reported on Monday, citing the Iranian ambassador.
The meeting followed talks on Sunday between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, on the situation in the Middle East and issues surrounding Iran's nuclear program.
Iran hopes that Russia and China as members of the JCPOA, as well as permanent members of the UN Security Council, can play a role in any process within the Security Council.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Tehran, Moscow and Beijing had held “constructive consultations” over the past year, discussing the possible reintroduction of the UN Security Council’s sanctions on Iran.
This came as conflicting reports emerged about Russia’s stance regarding the enrichment of uranium in Iran.
On Sunday, Russia rejected an Axios report saying Putin has told both US President Donald Trump and Iranian officials that he supports the idea of a nuclear deal in which Iran is unable to enrich uranium.
Another difference emerged when Moscow announced that Putin had not received a letter from Khamenei during a previous visit by Iran's foreign minister to Moscow.
Also, Iran has not been impressed with Russia's support so far, Iranian sources said, and the country wants Putin to do more to back it against Israel and the United States.
The Farhikhtegan newspaper, whose editorial board is headed by the Iranian leader's senior adviser on international affairs, Ali Akbar Velayati, revealed details of the Khamenei letter, before later deleting it.
The newpspaer said Araghchi had conveyed the Supreme Leader’s “discontent” over what Tehran considered Moscow's shortcomings during the recent war with Israel.
Alexander Baunov, a former Russian diplomat and Kremlin watcher, wrote that “the Kremlin realizes that Israel and the United States are willing to make more efforts to destroy the Iranian regime than to save it.”
He said the recent military confrontation between Israel, the US and Iran has put Putin in front of very difficult choices, particularly because Iran's current adversaries are not Russia's enemies.
“This applies to Israel, the Gulf Arab states, and the Trump administration, with whom Putin still hopes to reach a big deal,” he said.
