Oil Falls More than 1% as OPEC+ to Consider another Output Hike

OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo
OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo
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Oil Falls More than 1% as OPEC+ to Consider another Output Hike

OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo
OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo

Oil prices fell 1.5% on Thursday, adding to their more than 2% decline the previous session, as investors awaited a weekend meeting of OPEC+ at which producers are expected to consider another increase in output targets.

Brent crude fell $1, or 1.5%, to $66.59 a barrel by 1104 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude shed $1, or 1.6%, to $62.95 a barrel. Eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies - known together as OPEC+ - will consider further increases to production in October at a meeting on Sunday, two sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters, as the group seeks to regain market share, Reuters reported.

A potential OPEC+ production hike would send a strong signal that regaining their market share takes priority over price support, said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

OPEC+ had already agreed to raise output targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, in addition to a 300,000 bpd quota increase for the United Arab Emirates.

Over the past few months, despite the accelerating production increases, Middle Eastern oil prices have remained the strongest regional prices globally. This has bolstered the confidence of Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members to boost output, according to a Haitong Securities' report.

Weighing further on prices were some shaky US macroeconomic data that showed job openings fell to a 10-month low in July, consistent with easing labour market conditions and supporting expectations the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this month.

Markets are also awaiting government data on US crude stockpiles due on Thursday, a day later than usual because of a US holiday on Monday, to gauge the strength of demand in the world's biggest oil consumer. US crude stocks rose by 622,000 barrels in the week ended August 29, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday.



Gold Flashes Past $4,700/oz as Trump Threats Dampen Global Sentiment

(FILES) Gold wafers are displayed at Galeri 24, a state-owned gold retailer, in Surabaya, East Java, on October 16, 2025, as Indonesia's gold price stays near record highs and demand for safe-haven assets remains strong. (Photo by Juni KRISWANTO / AFP)
(FILES) Gold wafers are displayed at Galeri 24, a state-owned gold retailer, in Surabaya, East Java, on October 16, 2025, as Indonesia's gold price stays near record highs and demand for safe-haven assets remains strong. (Photo by Juni KRISWANTO / AFP)
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Gold Flashes Past $4,700/oz as Trump Threats Dampen Global Sentiment

(FILES) Gold wafers are displayed at Galeri 24, a state-owned gold retailer, in Surabaya, East Java, on October 16, 2025, as Indonesia's gold price stays near record highs and demand for safe-haven assets remains strong. (Photo by Juni KRISWANTO / AFP)
(FILES) Gold wafers are displayed at Galeri 24, a state-owned gold retailer, in Surabaya, East Java, on October 16, 2025, as Indonesia's gold price stays near record highs and demand for safe-haven assets remains strong. (Photo by Juni KRISWANTO / AFP)

Gold jumped past $4,700 per ounce for the first time on Tuesday, while silver traded near a record high, as US President Donald Trump's threats to slap extra tariffs on European allies soured global sentiment and sparked a rush into safe-haven assets.

Spot gold gained 0.7% to $4,699.93 per ounce by 0514 GMT, having hit an all-time high ‌of $4,701.23 earlier. ‌US gold futures for February delivery climbed ‌2.4% ⁠to $4,706.50 per ​ounce, Reuters said.

Spot ‌silver fell 0.4% to $94.27 an ounce, after hitting a record high of $94.72 earlier in the session.

Trump has intensified his push to wrest sovereignty over Greenland from fellow NATO member Denmark, prompting the European Union to weigh hitting back with its own measures.

"Trump's 'disruptive' policy approach to international affairs and desire to see lower interest ⁠rates suit precious metals very well, as reflected by gold and silver's rampant run," ‌said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief ‍market analyst.

"Trump's second term ‍thus far has been a boon for precious metals, with ‍his unconventional approach to politics playing into the hands of gold and silver."

Gold prices have rallied more than 70% since Trump began his second term a year ago.

On Tuesday, gold also found support ​as concerns lingered around the Federal Reserve's independence with the US Supreme Court this week expected to hear ⁠a case around Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

The Fed is broadly expected to maintain interest rates at its January 27-28 meeting despite Trump's calls for cuts. Gold, which does not yield interest, typically performs well during periods of low interest rates.

Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA, expects the Fed to continue its rate-cut cycle into 2026, citing a sluggish labor market and lackluster consumer sentiment, with the next reduction now being priced further down the calendar in either June or ‌July.

Among other precious metals, spot platinum slid 0.8% to $2,355.60 an ounce, while palladium dropped 0.7% to $1,828.58.


IMF Raises Saudi Arabia’s Growth Forecast to 4.5% in 2026

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
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IMF Raises Saudi Arabia’s Growth Forecast to 4.5% in 2026

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)

For the third time in six months, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Saudi Arabia's economic growth for 2025 and 2026, in a sign of a growing robust economy.

The fund is now forecasting the Kingdom's economy, the largest in the Arab world, to grow by 4.3% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. This is 0.3 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively higher than the October forecast, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook Update.

These projections are close to the Saudi government's estimates of 4.4% growth in 2025 and 4.6% this year, stated in the Kingdom’s Pre-Budget Statement for Fiscal Year 2026.

The IMF forecast came after Fitch Ratings affirmed Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating at A+ with a stable outlook, reflecting the Kingdom’s strong fiscal and the momentum of social and economic reforms, according to a report issued by the agency last Friday.

It said the Saudi economy will benefit from higher oil production, as well as the “healthy” prospects for non-oil activities, underpinned by reform, high levels of government and GRE spending, new projects coming on stream and buoyant consumer spending.

Earlier this month, the IMF said next year will be pivotal for the Kingdom thanks to deeper reforms implemented throughout the past years.

It said the resilience shown in 2025 underscores the progress already achieved in reducing the economy’s exposure to oil fluctuations and the sustainability of the Kingdom's financial stability.

Saudi Arabia also built a more diversified and solid economic base, and maintained the growth momentum in its non-oil sector even as oil production falls.

This reflects the ability of the Saudi economy to face market fluctuations, and regional and global challenges.


Oil Gains on Upbeat China Data; Greenland in the Spotlight

A view of Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) oil refinery in Pancevo, Serbia, Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)
A view of Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) oil refinery in Pancevo, Serbia, Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)
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Oil Gains on Upbeat China Data; Greenland in the Spotlight

A view of Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) oil refinery in Pancevo, Serbia, Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)
A view of Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) oil refinery in Pancevo, Serbia, Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)

Oil prices rose on Tuesday after better-than-expected Chinese economic growth data boosted optimism about demand, while markets are also watching President Donald Trump's threats to increase US tariffs on European countries because of his desire to buy Greenland.

Brent crude futures rose 19 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $64.13 a barrel by 01:00 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude for February, which expires on Tuesday, also rose 25 cents, or 0.4 percent, from Friday's close to $59.69, Reuters reported.

The price of the March West Texas Intermediate crude contract, which is the most traded, also rose by 0.08 cents, or 0.13 percent, to $59.42.

West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were not settled on Monday due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday in the United States.

“West Texas Intermediate crude is trading slightly higher... supported by fourth-quarter 2025 GDP data released yesterday, which came in better than expected,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, in a note. “This resilience from the world's largest oil importer has boosted demand sentiment.”

According to data released on Monday, the Chinese economy grew by 5.0 percent last year, achieving the government's goal by acquiring a record share of global demand for goods to offset weak domestic consumption. This strategy has mitigated the impact of US tariffs, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.

Government data released on Monday showed that Chinese refinery output rose 4.1 percent year-on-year in 2025, while crude oil production grew 1.5 percent. Both indicators recorded their highest levels ever.

Over the weekend, fears of a renewed trade war escalated after Trump stated that he would impose an additional 10 percent tariff from February 1 on goods imported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and Britain, rising to 25 percent on June 1 if no agreement is reached on Greenland.

“Contributing to the support of the oil price was the weakness of the US dollar, which resulted from markets selling the dollar in response to President Trump's continued threats to impose tariffs on Greenland,” Sycamore added.

The dollar fell 0.3 percent against major currencies. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated oil contracts cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Markets are closely monitoring the Venezuelan oil sector after Trump announced that the United States would take over the management of this sector following the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro.

Multiple trade sources reported that Vitol offered Venezuelan oil to Chinese buyers at discounts of up to about $5 a barrel compared to the price of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange for April delivery.

China is also importing the largest amount of Russian Urals crude since 2023 at prices lower than Iranian oil prices, after India, the largest crude importer, sharply reduced its imports due to Western sanctions and ahead of the European Union's ban on products manufactured from Russian oil, according to trade sources and shipping data.