Lebanon: Aoun, Salam Differences Unlikely to Escalate into Crisis

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (Lebanese Presidency)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (Lebanese Presidency)
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Lebanon: Aoun, Salam Differences Unlikely to Escalate into Crisis

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (Lebanese Presidency)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (Lebanese Presidency)

The relationship between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has been marked by a series of ups and downs, with differences on several key issues since they took office. Their most recent disagreement centered on the Raouche rock event, which led to an ‘indirect clash’ between the two officials.

Earlier, the appointment of a central bank governor had also sparked a dispute, which was resolved in March in favor of President Aoun’s nominee Karim Souaid.

While tensions over the handling of Hezbollah’s “Raouche celebration” continue to cast a shadow over their ties and have kept the cabinet from meeting this week, efforts are underway on several tracks to repair what ministerial sources close to the presidency describe as “a relationship of cooperation, partnership and responsibility.”

Those efforts were reflected in a meeting on Thursday between Aoun and Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Metri.

After the meeting Metri said: “We discussed the next cabinet session, at which we expect to hear from army command on the monthly report regarding the monopoly of arms. We also discussed the atmosphere of trust between the government and the presidency.”

Speaker Nabih Berri did not deny friction between the president and prime minister when asked after his meeting with Aoun on Monday, replying, “God willing, things will get better.”

Sources concede differences of view between the two men but say “matters are being resolved in a way that will not negatively affect the cooperation between them or the functioning of institutions.”

They told Asharq al-Awsat the dispute had been settled and that a cabinet meeting would be convened next Thursday at the presidential palace, to be chaired by Aoun.

“The president set out his position to the prime minister when he visited him on Tuesday, rejecting any use of the army against participants in the Raouche celebration, where the rock was lit up with images of the former and current Hezbollah secretaries-general, Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine,” the sources added.

Investigations into the “rock celebration” are continuing. Sources said probes were focusing on the association that obtained the permit for the event.

The National News Agency reported on Thursday that two people had been questioned under the supervision of the public prosecutor for specialized matters, Judge Jamal al-Hajjar; one was released on a pledge to stay, the other was remanded for questioning.

The latter is the owner of the laser device used to project the two images onto the rock.

The agency added that three more people had been summoned for questioning on Friday.

The episode also saw Aoun award the army commander, Major-General Rudolf Hikal, the National Order of the Cedar, grade of the grand sash, on Monday, in recognition of his service and leadership roles.

The move raised eyebrows amid the “clash” with the prime minister after Salam said he had “called the ministers of interior, justice and defence and asked them to take appropriate steps, including detaining those responsible and referring them to investigation so they face the penalties prescribed by law.”

Defense Minister Michel Menassa, an ally of Aoun, later issued a statement saying “the dignity of the Lebanese army regrets placing the burden of street events on the guardians of legitimacy” and stressing that “the army’s mission is to avert sedition,” responding to criticism directed at the military at the time.

Sources noted the medal Aoun conferred on Hikal had been signed by both the president and the prime minister on Sept. 19 before Aoun travelled to New York and was presented to Hikal on his return.

Support grows for Salam

Voices in support of Prime Minister Salam have grown louder. On Thursday, Salam received visitors who voiced solidarity with his stance and his insistence on upholding the law and protecting state institutions.

After meeting Salam, MP Ashraf Rifi said the Raouche event had been a “failed show of force aimed at confronting legitimacy and displaying a fake excess of power. We witnessed how a small state (Hezbollah) tried to impose a fait accompli on Beirut,” he said, adding that the militia had miscalculated and could no longer “retreat inward” after failing in its external ventures.

“I am confident Prime Minister Salam, a son of Beirut, emerged stronger by standing by the law. He will not back down from protecting institutions. All free Lebanese stand with him,” Rifi said.

Addressing the “defeated small state,” he added: “The time when a finger could be raised against the Lebanese is over. That finger has been broken for good, and our will as free Lebanese is firmer and stronger than any project of chaos or tutelage.”

Rifi urged state leaders and all security and military forces “to be of one hand, with no place for hesitation or compromise. You are the hope of the Lebanese in defending the state and restoring Lebanon to the realm of law and institutions.”

He warned: “Your responsibility is great and history will not forgive any slackness or hesitation,” and said “solidarity among the presidencies and institutions is needed now more than ever, and it stems from the duty to remove illegal arms and implement the constitution and international resolutions.”



Iraq PM Vows to Prevent Attacks After French Soldier Killed

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
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Iraq PM Vows to Prevent Attacks After French Soldier Killed

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)

Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani vowed on Friday to prevent attacks after the killing of a French soldier in an attack in the autonomous Kurdistan region.

Sudani expressed his "solidarity" with France in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron.

He said that "the necessary measures will be taken to prevent the recurrence of such incidents", and an investigation will be conducted into the attack.

The president of Iraq's Kurdistan region Nechirvan Barzani, in a call with Macron, also expressed his condolences and called for the Iraqi government to "set limits on outlaw groups".


Syria, Lebanon Test Ties Amid Regional Escalation

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during the Arab Summit in Egypt, March 4, 2025 (AP)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during the Arab Summit in Egypt, March 4, 2025 (AP)
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Syria, Lebanon Test Ties Amid Regional Escalation

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during the Arab Summit in Egypt, March 4, 2025 (AP)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during the Arab Summit in Egypt, March 4, 2025 (AP)

Before a March 10 phone call between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to discuss regional developments and their impact on the security and stability of both countries and the wider region, it appeared the two leaders had not been in direct contact since each assumed the presidency a little over a year ago.

In the days before speaking with Aoun, al-Sharaa contacted several Lebanese political figures. On March 6, he spoke with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt. On March 8, he called Kataeb Party leader MP Sami Gemayel.

During those calls, al-Sharaa expressed “solidarity with the Lebanese people in these difficult circumstances Lebanon is going through.”

He said the reinforcement of the Syrian military presence along the Syrian-Lebanese border on March 3 was intended solely to strengthen border control and safeguard Syria’s internal security. He described the steps as similar to measures taken along the Syrian-Iraqi border.

The contacts came against the backdrop of war in the region and broader regional developments, and included discussions on the future of Syrian-Lebanese relations. Al-Sharaa stressed the importance of continued coordination between the two countries.

According to the Kataeb Party’s official website, the call between al-Sharaa and Gemayel took place in a positive atmosphere and included discussion of opening a new chapter in bilateral relations.

Al-Sharaa said ties between Syria and Lebanon should rest on “mutual respect between the two states,” alongside stronger economic cooperation and integration that serves the interests of both peoples.

However, the two days following the March 8 call triggered speculation that relations between the two countries were strained because of current and past issues.

Al-Sharaa moved to dispel that speculation with a direct call to Aoun. The following day, French President Emmanuel Macron said he had spoken with both leaders and welcomed the dialogue, saying “the coordination launched by the Lebanese and Syrian leaderships is important” and that France would continue to support it.

Overall, the contacts have raised cautious optimism about neighborly relations at a sensitive moment.

Asharq Al-Awsat asked Syrian analysts how they see relations between the two countries evolving in the near term amid ongoing regional developments.

Foundations of the relationship

Bassam Barabandi, a Syrian analyst and former diplomat based in Washington, said Damascus approaches relations with Lebanon on several foundations.

First is non-interference in Lebanon’s internal politics. Second is border security, particularly preventing Hezbollah from operating inside Syria or transferring weapons through Syrian territory, as well as halting drug smuggling through Syria, which requires direct cooperation with Lebanon.

Third is the issue of Syrians held in Lebanese prisons, which he said is under discussion.

Barabandi said contacts between the two sides, including the call between al-Sharaa and Aoun, produced understandings on several issues, notably mutual non-interference in internal affairs and handling files related to Syrian fugitives in Lebanon and Syrian refugees.

He noted that Lebanon’s political system requires engagement with multiple actors, since the president is only one part of a broader governing structure. Communicating Syrian assurances or positions, therefore, requires outreach to different political leaders.

In that context, al-Sharaa contacted Gemayel to thank him for efforts aimed at accelerating solutions for Syrians detained in Lebanon, and in recognition of his political weight among Christians.

The Syrian president also contacted Jumblatt, Lebanon’s top Druze leader.

Further contacts with other figures could follow if needed, Barabandi said.

He added that the Syrian government supports steps taken by the Lebanese government regarding Hezbollah, particularly efforts related to disarming the group.

Expanding dialogue

Jumaa Mohammed Laheeb, director of research and studies at the Syrian Future Movement, said the current dynamic between Damascus and Beirut reflects a dual reality: relatively advanced security and political coordination alongside political uncertainty.

That uncertainty is most evident in sensitive files, particularly those related to detainees, he said. In that context, al-Sharaa’s call with Salam can be understood.

Laheeb said the call and Syria’s expression of support for Lebanon amid the regional escalation focused on two main issues: border control and reassuring the Lebanese government that Syrian military deployments aim to strengthen control within Syrian territory rather than stoke tensions in Lebanon.

Such communication reflects effective operational channels between the two governments, particularly after understandings reached in recent years on smuggling and border crossings. But those channels alone cannot resolve politically and historically sensitive files such as detainees and the missing, he said.

Laheeb said the Lebanese presidency sits at the center of complex domestic balances involving Hezbollah’s influence, as well as Christian, Sunni and Druze segments.

Al-Sharaa’s initial reluctance to call Aoun directly — while opening communication with figures such as Jumblatt and Gemayel — reflects a Syrian effort to broaden the range of Lebanese actors it engages with.

Damascus appears to be seeking greater regional legitimacy by opening dialogue with forces opposed to Hezbollah’s dominance, he said. But key decisions on issues such as detainees, refugees and border security still pass through domestic circles in which Hezbollah retains considerable influence.

The detainee file, he said, remains a bargaining chip rather than a purely humanitarian priority, leading to delays and partial solutions rather than a comprehensive settlement.

Testing relations with Damascus

Syrian researcher Ahmad Abazid said Damascus does not want to become involved in the current war or intervene militarily against Hezbollah. However, he said the Syrian government has, from the outset, made support for the Lebanese state a cornerstone of its relationship with Lebanon, alongside what he described as genuine hostility toward Hezbollah.

For that reason, he said, it is natural for Damascus to support Aoun’s initiative to disarm the group.

At the same time, Abazid argued Hezbollah would be the weaker side in any confrontation with the new Syrian army. The history of relations between the group and Syrian opposition would likely push many fighters to confront Hezbollah if such a battle emerged, he said.

He also pointed to rising tensions. Hezbollah said Syrian territory had been used as the launch point for a second Israeli operation in the Lebanese town of Nabi Sheet in the Bekaa Valley. Shortly afterward, the Syrian army said Hezbollah had fired artillery shells at the Sarghaya region in western Syria.

Abazid said the escalation could reflect two possible dynamics. One is an Iranian attempt to spread instability across the region during the current war to increase pressure on all sides, particularly Arab states.

The other is that Hezbollah feels threatened by the Syrian side, especially as Lebanese actors have refrained from launching military initiatives against the group and after remarks by US envoy Tom Barrack suggesting possible Syrian intervention in Lebanon.


Iraq PM Vows to Prevent Attacks After French Soldier Killed

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
TT

Iraq PM Vows to Prevent Attacks After French Soldier Killed

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)

Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani vowed on Friday to prevent attacks after the killing of a French soldier in an attack in the autonomous Kurdistan region.

Sudani expressed his "solidarity" with France in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron.

He said that "the necessary measures will be taken to prevent the recurrence of such incidents", and an investigation will be conducted into the attack.

The president of Iraq's Kurdistan region Nechirvan Barzani, in a call with Macron, also expressed his condolences and called for the Iraqi government to "set limits on outlaw groups".