Rebuilding Syria after more than a decade of civil war is expected to cost about $216 billion, the World Bank said in a report published Tuesday.
The report, “Syria Physical Damage and Reconstruction Assessment 2011-2024”, presents the results of a rapid nationwide assessment across infrastructure and building assets, covering the period from 2011 to 2024.
Syria’s conflict has damaged nearly one-third of its pre-conflict gross capital stock, with direct physical damages to infrastructure, residential buildings, and non-residential buildings estimated at $108 billion, said the report.
The conclusions came two days after Syrian Finance Minister Mohammed Yisr Barnieh held meetings in Washington with World Bank representatives and discussed ways to support Syria’s economic and financial recovery. Syria aims to secure approximately $1 billion in grants from the World Bank over the next three years.
Among the categories assessed, the World Bank found that infrastructure was the hardest hit, accounting for 48% of total damage ($52 billion), followed by residential buildings ($33 billion) and non-residential buildings ($23 billion).
The governorates of Aleppo, Damascus countryside, and Homs were the most severely affected in terms of total damage.
Cost of reconstruction 10 times Syria’s GDP
The assessment said reconstruction costs of Syria’s damaged physical assets are projected to range between $140 billion and $345 billion, with a conservative best estimate of $216 billion. This includes $75 billion for residential buildings, $59 billion for non-residential structures, and $82 billion for infrastructure.
The governorates of Aleppo and Damascus countryside are expected to require the most significant reconstruction investments.
The assessment underscores the scale of the challenge and the immense need for international support as estimated physical reconstruction costs are nearly ten times Syria’s projected 2024 GDP.
The conflict has devastated Syria’s economy, with real GDP declining by nearly 53% between 2010 and 2022.
In nominal terms, GDP contracted from $67.5 billion in 2011 to an estimated $21.4 billion in 2024, as per Syria Macro-Fiscal Assessment published earlier this year.
“The challenges ahead are immense, but the World Bank stands ready to work alongside the Syrian people and the international community to support recovery and reconstruction,” said Jean-Christophe Carret, World Bank Middle East Division Director.
“Collective commitment, coordinated action, and a comprehensive, structured support program are critical to helping Syria on its path to recovery and long-term development,” he added.
For his part, Barnieh said the report provides a critical baseline of the massive scale of the destruction and of the reconstruction costs ahead.
“Now, more than ever, it is imperative for the international community to mobilize support and partnership to help Syria restore essential infrastructure, revitalize communities, and lay the foundation for a more resilient future for its people,” he noted.
Given the protracted conflict and related methodological constraints, the report findings are subject to significant uncertainty.
The report does not provide detailed disaggregation by sectors or more detailed asset types. It is intended to provide an estimate of the overall scale of damage and reconstruction costs, and to inform discussions on recovery planning.
The assessment was prepared with financial and technical support from the World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR).
