Saudi Aramco Profits Beat Expectations as Gas Expansion Accelerates

People visit the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) stand during the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 03 November 2025. (EPA)
People visit the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) stand during the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 03 November 2025. (EPA)
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Saudi Aramco Profits Beat Expectations as Gas Expansion Accelerates

People visit the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) stand during the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 03 November 2025. (EPA)
People visit the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) stand during the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 03 November 2025. (EPA)

Saudi Aramco reported stronger-than-expected results for the third quarter of 2025, posting adjusted net income of SAR 104.9 billion ($28 billion), supported by higher sales and increased other revenues.

The company maintained its robust dividend policy and continued to advance major gas projects that are nearing operational phases.

Net profit for the quarter slipped slightly by 2.3 percent year-on-year to SAR 101 billion ($26.9 billion) as lower crude, refined-product, and chemical prices weighed on earnings.

Even so, the figure exceeded analysts’ forecasts of SAR 88.8 billion, underscoring the company’s ability to sustain strong profitability despite market volatility.

Aramco declared total third-quarter dividends of SAR 80.12 billion ($21.37 billion), comprising SAR 79.3 billion in base payouts and SAR 0.82 billion in performance-linked dividends, the same level maintained for the past four quarters.

The performance component was based on 70 percent of 2024 free cash flow after base dividends and external investments.

Revenue and costs

Quarterly revenue fell 7.3 percent to SAR 386.17 billion ($103 billion) as lower energy prices offset higher sales volumes.

Adjusted net income rose to SAR 104.9 billion, up from SAR 104 billion a year earlier and SAR 92 billion in the previous quarter.

The improvement reflected increased non-sales income and lower operating expenses, partially offset by higher taxes and zakat.

Operating costs dropped to SAR 224.6 billion ($59.9 billion) from SAR 240.1 billion in the second quarter, driven by lower crude-purchase volumes despite higher refined-product and chemical costs.

Cash flow and spending

Operating cash flow reached SAR 135.4 billion ($36.1 billion), compared with SAR 132.1 billion a year earlier.

Free cash flow rose to SAR 88.4 billion ($23.6 billion) from SAR 82.5 billion.

Capital expenditure totaled SAR 47.1 billion, including SAR 34 billion for exploration and production and SAR 11.65 billion for refining, chemicals, and marketing.

CEO Amin Nasser said the quarterly results highlight Aramco’s financial resilience amid energy-price fluctuations.

He noted that the company increased production at minimal additional cost and maintained reliable supplies of oil, gas, and related products, contributing to the solid performance.

Aramco is strengthening its upstream capabilities as several large oil and gas projects move toward commissioning, leveraging digital and artificial intelligence technologies to enhance efficiency, he added.

Gas projects and outlook

Total hydrocarbon production averaged 13.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day during the quarter. Aramco raised its gas-sales capacity-growth target from 60 percent to about 80 percent by 2030, expecting output of high-value liquids to exceed one million barrels a day and total gas and associated liquids to reach roughly six million barrels of oil equivalent daily by the end of the decade.

Construction is advancing on several major gas projects. The first phase of the Jafurah gas plant, due for completion in 2025, will deliver 2 billion standard cubic feet a day of sustained gas sales by 2030.

Work is also progressing on the Ras Tanajib gas facility under the Marjan development, expected to add 2.6 billion cubic feet of processing capacity in 2025, and on an expansion of the Fadhili plant, which will contribute an additional 1.5 billion cubic feet by 2027.

In October, Aramco completed a 20-year lease-and-lease-back agreement for the Jafurah and Riyadh gas facilities through its subsidiary Jafurah Midstream Gas Company, selling 49 percent of the unit to an investor group led by BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners for SAR 41.8 billion ($11.1 billion). Aramco retains full ownership of the assets and operational control.

Analyst Mohammed Al-Farraj of Arbah Capital told Asharq Al-Awsat that the company’s new gas targets and major investments, including the Jafurah project, reinforce Aramco’s value-driven growth strategy.

Expanding downstream partnerships, such as with China’s Sinopec in the Fujian Sinopec-Aramco Refining & Petrochemicals venture and the planned investment in HUMAIN, will strengthen the company’s presence in Asia and support future earnings growth, he stressed.



Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.


Aljadaan: Emerging Markets Account for 70% of Global Growth

Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
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Aljadaan: Emerging Markets Account for 70% of Global Growth

Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat

Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Aljadaan stressed Sunday that the world economy is going through a “profound transition,” saying emerging markets and developing economies now account for nearly 60 percent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in purchasing power terms and over 70 percent of global growth.

In his opening remarks at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, organized by the Saudi Ministry of Finance and the IMF in AlUla, the minister said these economies have become an increasingly important driver of global growth with their share of global economy more than doubling since 2010.

“Today, the 10 emerging economies in the G20 alone account for more than half of the world growth. Yet, they face a more complex and fragmented environment, elevated debt levels, slower trade growth and increasing exposure to geopolitical shocks.”

“Unfortunately, more than half of low income countries are either in or at the risk of debt distress. At the same time global trade growth has slowed at around half of what it was pre the pandemic,” Aljadaan added.

The Finance Minister stressed that the Saudi experience over the past decade has reinforced three lessons that may be relevant to the discussions at the two-day conference, which brings together a select group of ministers and central bank governors, leaders of international organizations, leading investors and academics.

“First, macroeconomic stability is not the enemy of growth. It is actually the foundation,” he said.

“Structural reforms deliver results only when institutions deliver. So there is no point of reforming ... if the institutions are unable to deliver,” he stated.

Finally, he said that “international cooperation matters more, not less, in a fragmented world.”


Georgieva from AlUla: Growth Still Lacks Pre-pandemic Levels

Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Georgieva from AlUla: Growth Still Lacks Pre-pandemic Levels

Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Sunday that world growth still lacks pre-pandemic levels, expressing concern as she expected more shocks amid high spending and rising debt levels in many countries.

Georgieva spoke at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, organized by the Saudi Ministry of Finance and the IMF in AlUla.

The two-day conference brings together a select group of ministers and central bank governors, leaders of international organizations, leading investors and academics to deliberate on policies to global stability, prosperity, and multilateral collaboration.

Georgieva said that the conference was launched last year in recognition of the growing role of emerging market economies in a world of sweeping transformations.

“I came out of this gathering .... With a sense of hope for the pragmatic attitude and determination to pursue good policies and build strong institutions,” she said.

Georgieva stressed that “good policies pay off,” and said that growth rates across emerging economies reached four percent this year, exceeding by a large margin those of advanced economies that are around 1.5 percent.