Markets Boosted by Hopes for Deal to End US Shutdown

Investors have been boosted by reports US lawmakers have reached a deal to end the record government shutdown. Anna Rose Layden / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
Investors have been boosted by reports US lawmakers have reached a deal to end the record government shutdown. Anna Rose Layden / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
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Markets Boosted by Hopes for Deal to End US Shutdown

Investors have been boosted by reports US lawmakers have reached a deal to end the record government shutdown. Anna Rose Layden / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
Investors have been boosted by reports US lawmakers have reached a deal to end the record government shutdown. Anna Rose Layden / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP

Equities rallied Monday on hopes that the US government shutdown could be nearing an end after reports said lawmakers had reached a deal to break the record-breaking 40-day impasse.

The prospect of a resumption of operations in the world's biggest economy helped temper lingering worries about extended tech valuations amid talk of an AI bubble following this year's eye-watering rally, AFP reported.

Investors have been growing increasingly concerned about the financial impact of the shutdown, which saw several government services halted, including air travel heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.

A University of Michigan survey last week showed a decline in consumer sentiment in November compared with October.

But CNN and Fox News reported on Sunday that senators had reached a bipartisan stopgap deal to fund operations through January after wrangling over health care subsidies, food benefits and Donald Trump's firings of federal employees.

The US president told reporters that "it looks like we're getting close to the shutdown ending".

A procedural vote is due to take place later Sunday.

Lawmakers said it would restore funding for food stamps, reverse Trump's firings of thousands of federal workers and assure a vote on extending health care subsidies.

"There is a growing sense of urgency to reach a compromise," wrote National Australia Bank's Rodrigo Catril.

"The economic consequences are mounting: the Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown could shave 1.5 percentage (annualized) points off quarterly GDP growth by mid-November".

Optimism for an end to the standoff helped equities higher in Asia.

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Taipei and Manila were all up, though there were losses in Singapore and Wellington.

The reopening would allow officials to resume the release of key economic data, including on the labor market, which is a key gauge for the Federal Reserve as it considers whether to cut interest rates again next month.

Traders have been forced to use private data to get an idea about the state of the economy, with a report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas last week showing US layoffs hit the highest level in 22 years in October.

That boosted talk of another rate cut, though several key members of the central bank have said their main concern is stubbornly elevated inflation, rather than jobs.

Chris Weston at Pepperstone said: "Markets currently price a 67 percent chance of a December rate cut.

"However, recent comments from non-voting Fed members (Beth) Hammack and (Lorie) Logan -- both suggesting they wouldn't have supported the October cut -- hint at a higher bar for additional easing.

"The next wave of Tier 1 data, once government operations resume, will be critical for December expectations."

While markets are on the up at the start of the week, sentiment has been dented of late by concerns that stocks are overvalued and doubts over tens of billions of dollars in new artificial intelligence investments.



IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.


Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.


Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.