Preliminary results from Iraq’s parliamentary elections on Tuesday show that Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani has scored a significant victory.
Yet while his bloc has joined the top tier of Shiite political forces, his path to a second term remains far from guaranteed. Several Shiite factions also secured substantial gains, setting the stage for a deeper struggle within the Shiite political camp.
The outcome is expected to intensify rifts within the Coordination Framework, splitting it between al-Sudani and his rival Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the State of Law coalition. According to electoral officials, robust voter turnout meant that the boycott by influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr had minimal effect on the overall landscape.
Late Wednesday, al-Sudani announced that his Reconstruction and Development Alliance had topped the initial tallies.
The Independent High Electoral Commission, after a two-hour delay, confirmed that al-Sudani’s alliance led in Baghdad, followed by the Taqaddum (Progress) Party of Mohammed al-Halbousi, and then al-Maliki’s State of Law.
Sources within al-Sudani’s alliance said he personally garnered around 250,000 votes in Baghdad, with strong performances across central and southern provinces that could yield more than 50 seats.
Al-Halbousi’s Taqaddum dominated voting in the Sunni-majority Anbar Province and finished second or third in several northern and central districts, winning over 30 seats.
In the Kurdish region, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by Masoud Barzani appears to have retained a decisive lead, while several secular and reformist lists performed poorly.
Following the announcements, al-Sudani said his coalition aimed to form the next government and remained open to engaging “all political forces, including those that boycotted the vote.”
Turnout and Participation
The electoral commission reported an overall turnout of 56.11 percent, based on a count of 99.98 percent of polling stations. Of more than 21.4 million eligible voters, approximately 12 million cast ballots, over 10.9 million in the general vote alone.
Civil Movements Suffer Heavy Losses
The Sadrist boycott did not prevent other Shiite factions in the Coordination Framework from achieving solid turnout and meaningful representation. Instead, it entrenched a new rivalry between al-Sudani and al-Maliki, who has managed to retain a relatively stable Shiite base.
Civil and secular groups emerged as some of the election’s biggest losers. The Alternative and Democratic Civil Alliance lists - umbrella groups for many liberal and left-leaning actors, including the Iraqi Communist Party - did not secure a single parliamentary seat as of this report.
Al-Sudani’s Bid for a Second Term
Al-Sudani’s strong showing has redrawn internal calculations within the Coordination Framework. Having risen to the premiership last term with only two seats, he could now enter negotiations with a sizable bloc of his own, potentially elevating him as a leading contender for a second term.
Yet analysts warn that Iraq’s premiership, traditionally assigned to the Shiite community, has rarely been determined by seat counts alone. Intricate power-sharing arrangements and factional bargaining often override electoral strength.
Both al-Maliki and Qais al-Khazali, whose blocs together exceed 60 seats, are expected to oppose al-Sudani’s return. Additional factions within the Framework together holding roughly 40 seats - may join them.
The Battle for the “Largest Bloc”
With no party able to form a government outright, coalition-building will once again be decisive. Political Science Professor Yassin al-Bakri of Al-Nahrain University expects a fierce contest between al-Sudani and al-Maliki to claim leadership of the “largest bloc,” the parliamentary grouping entitled to nominate the prime minister.
Some Framework leaders are reportedly considering declaring themselves the largest bloc without al-Sudani, arguing that he no longer represents their collective position after the elections. This option would involve drawing defectors from his alliance in exchange for executive guarantees.
Another scenario envisions al-Sudani rejoining the Framework under terms that would return influential figures such as Ahmed al-Asadi and Faleh al-Fayyad to the forefront of negotiations, potentially limiting his authority within the next government.
A third, and increasingly likely, approach involves fragmenting al-Sudani’s bloc so that he cannot negotiate as head of a unified coalition.
Still, those close to al-Sudani argue he may succeed in persuading parts of the Framework to back his second-term bid, citing possible favorable shifts in US and regional positions.
International Reactions
The European Union mission called on political actors in Iraq to support the formation of a government that reflects the will of Iraqi voters, describing the elections as an important opportunity to strengthen institutions amid shifting regional geopolitics.
For his part, UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric praised Iraq for holding elections that were generally calm and orderly and stressed the need to form a government “peacefully and in a timely manner” that meets the public’s aspirations for stability and development.
