Inter Milan has a 70% chance of winning Serie A according to history.
In 63 of the 93 previous Serie A seasons, the team which topped the table at the midway point went on to claim the scudetto.
Inter strong-armed its way to the title of winter champion on Wednesday when Pio Esposito flexed his muscles.
“This semi title doesn’t mean anything,” Inter coach Cristian Chivu said. “What matters is getting to the end, getting to May, getting there knowing that we are competitive, staying fixed to the top of the table ... because it will be a tight league campaign and a battle until the very end.”
It has been tight this season but Inter created a gap at the top of the table on Wednesday.
The 1-0 win over Lecce combined with Napoli’s goalless draw against Parma gave the Nerazzurri a six-point advantage over AC Milan and defending champion Napoli.
AC Milan, second on goal difference, could cut the gap back to three points if it wins at Como on Thursday.
Two years ago, Inter was on top at the midway point and went on to win Serie A. However, it was also the last team to be named winter champion and lose out on the trophy — in 2022, when the crown went to AC Milan.
Inter visits Udinese on Saturday, shortly after Napoli hosts Sassuolo. Milan welcomes Lecce on Sunday.
Key matchups
Napoli has reeled off three straight draws going into its match with struggling Sassuolo.
Antonio Conte’s team fought back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 against relegation-threatened Hellas Verona, then drew by the same scoreline in a thrilling title showdown against Inter before Wednesday’s frustration.
Sassuolo has just one win from its past nine matches and that came over a month ago.
Juventus and Roma were just a point behind Napoli and any further slip up could see them leapfrog the defending champion. Juventus visits Cagliari on Saturday, the day before Roma plays at Torino.
Bologna has slid down the table following a miserable run of results and hasn’t won since November. Coach Vincenzo Italiano will be up against his former team in the visit of relegation-threatened Fiorentina.
Players to watch
Pio Esposito has come from Serie B to scoring in every competition for Inter this season, as well as netting three for Italy. The 20-year-old ticked another box when he finally scored at San Siro for the first time in Serie A.
“I’ve been waiting for this goal for a long time and finally it’s here,” he said. “It was amazing to score at home in front of these fans. I’ve dreamed of it since I was a kid wearing this shirt.”
Esposito is already being touted as Italy’s next great center forward and celebrated the goal by showing his muscles before a warm embrace with Chivu.
“We have a bond that goes beyond words but there’s lots of respect and affection,” Esposito said. “We grew together, me as a player and him as a coach.”
Napoli’s frustrating evening on the same night had much to do with Parma goalkeeper Filippo Rinaldi on his Serie A debut. He was named player of the match.
Out of action
Conte will again be forced to watch from the stands as the Napoli coach serves the second of a two-match suspension after he was sent off at San Siro.
Napoli will hope David Neres will make a proper return. The Brazilian came on as a second-half substitute against Parma after missing the past couple of matches with an ankle sprain but he was clearly not fully fit and was taken off shortly before fulltime.
Key Inter midfielder Hakan Çalhanoğlu has strained his left calf and is expected to be sidelined for three weeks.
Off the field
There will be no Italy training camp in February ahead of a crucial World Cup playoff in March.
Italy coach Gennaro Gattuso hoped the Italian soccer federation and Lega Serie A could come to an agreement to amend the fixture list to give the Azzurri a few days to spend together.
But it was confirmed this week that would not be the case, as a congested fixture list and television demands made it impossible to find a window.
Italy last played on Nov. 16 and will meet up on the night of March 22, just four days before the World Cup semifinal playoff against Northern Ireland.
