Oil Down as Easing Iran Unrest Dampens Geopolitical Risk Premium

FILE PHOTO: The LyondellBasell refinery, located near the Houston Ship Channel, is seen in Houston, Texas, US, May 5, 2019.  REUTERS/Loren Elliott/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The LyondellBasell refinery, located near the Houston Ship Channel, is seen in Houston, Texas, US, May 5, 2019. REUTERS/Loren Elliott/File Photo
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Oil Down as Easing Iran Unrest Dampens Geopolitical Risk Premium

FILE PHOTO: The LyondellBasell refinery, located near the Houston Ship Channel, is seen in Houston, Texas, US, May 5, 2019.  REUTERS/Loren Elliott/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The LyondellBasell refinery, located near the Houston Ship Channel, is seen in Houston, Texas, US, May 5, 2019. REUTERS/Loren Elliott/File Photo

Oil prices were down on Monday after rising during the previous session as civil unrest in Iran subsided, lowering the chance of a US attack that could disrupt supply from the major Middle Eastern producer.

Brent crude was trading at $63.85 a barrel at 0734 GMT, down 28 cents or 0.44%.

US West Texas Intermediate for February fell 36 cents, or 0.61%, to $59.08 a barrel. That contract expires on Tuesday and the more active March contract was at $59.10, down 24 cents, or 0.40%.

Iran's violent crackdown on protests spurred by economic hardship, which officials say killed 5,000 people, quelled the unrest, reported Reuters.

US President Donald Trump ‌seemed to ‌step back from his earlier threats of intervention, ‌saying ⁠on social media ‌Iran had called off mass hangings of protesters, although the country had not announced any such plans.

That appeared to lower the odds of a US intervention that could have disrupted oil flows from the fourth-largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The downturn signaled a renewed retreat from multi-month highs reached last week, although prices still settled higher on Friday.

"The pullback followed a swift unwind of the 'Iran premium' that ‌had driven prices to 12-week highs, triggered ‍by signs of easing in Iran's crackdown ‍on protesters," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

That was ‍accentuated by US inventory data showing a substantial crude build and reinforcing bearish supply pressures, he added.

US markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Crude stocks were up by 3.4 million barrels in the week ended January 9, the EIA said last week, versus analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.7 million-barrel draw.

Markets are closely watching ⁠plans for Venezuela's oil fields, after Trump said the United States would run its oil industry after the capture of Nicolas Maduro.

The United States is moving as fast as possible to grant Chevron an expanded production license in the country, the US energy secretary told Reuters on Friday.

But markets were less confident about the prospects for scaled-up Venezuelan production.

"Venezuela and Ukraine remain on the back burner," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

"Expect rangebound movement for the rest of the day, with US markets closed."

China's refinery throughput in 2025 rose 4.1% year on year, while crude oil output grew ‌1.5% from 2024, with both reaching all-time highs, government data showed on Monday.



Indian Refiners Avoid Russian Oil in Push for US Trade Deal

An employee walks inside the premises of an oil refinery of Essar Oil in Vadinar in the western state of Gujarat, India, October 4, 2016. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo
An employee walks inside the premises of an oil refinery of Essar Oil in Vadinar in the western state of Gujarat, India, October 4, 2016. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo
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Indian Refiners Avoid Russian Oil in Push for US Trade Deal

An employee walks inside the premises of an oil refinery of Essar Oil in Vadinar in the western state of Gujarat, India, October 4, 2016. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo
An employee walks inside the premises of an oil refinery of Essar Oil in Vadinar in the western state of Gujarat, India, October 4, 2016. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo

Indian refiners are avoiding Russian oil purchases for delivery in April and are expected to stay away from such trades for longer, refining and trade sources said, a move that could help New Delhi seal a trade pact with Washington, according to Reuters.

The US and India moved closer to a trade pact on Friday, announcing a framework for a deal they hope to conclude by March that would lower tariffs and deepen economic cooperation.

Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Reliance Industries are not accepting offers from traders for Russian oil loading in March and April, said a trader who approached the refiners.

These refiners, however, had already scheduled some deliveries of Russian oil in March, refining sources said. Most other refiners have stopped buying Russian crude.

A foreign ministry spokesperson said: “Diversifying our energy sourcing in keeping with objective market conditions and evolving international dynamics is at the core of our strategy” to ensure energy security for the world's most-populous nation.

Although a US-India statement on the trade framework did not mention Russian oil, President Donald Trump rescinded his 25% tariffs on Indian goods, imposed over Russian oil purchases, because, he said, New Delhi had “committed to stop directly or indirectly” importing Russian oil.

New Delhi has not announced plans to halt Russian oil imports.

India became the top buyer of discounted Russian seaborne crude after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, spurring a backlash from Western nations that had targeted Russia's energy sector with sanctions aimed at curtailing Moscow's revenue and making it harder to fund the war.

One regular Indian buyer is Russia-backed private refiner Nayara, which relies solely on Russian oil for its 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery. Sources said Nayara may be allowed to keep buying Russian oil because other crude sellers pulled back after the European Union sanctioned the refiner in July.

Nayara also does not plan to import Russian crude in April due to a month-long refinery maintenance shutdown, a source familiar with its operations said.

Nayara did not respond to an email seeking comment.

Indian refiners may change their plan and place orders for Russian oil only if advised by the government, sources said.

Trump's order said US officials would monitor and recommend reinstating the tariffs if India resumed oil procurement from Russia.

Sources said last month that India was preparing to cut Russian oil imports below 1 million bpd by March, with volumes eventually falling to 500,000–600,000 bpd, compared with an average 1.7 million bpd last year. India's Russian oil imports topped 2 million bpd in mid-2025.

The intake of Russian oil by India, the world's third-biggest oil consumer and importer, declined to its lowest level in two years in December, data from trade and industry sources show.

 


IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.


Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.