Europe and India Seek Closer Ties with 'Mother of All Deals'

European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in February 2025 in New Delhi as the two economic behemoths sought to forge closer ties. Money SHARMA / AFP
European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in February 2025 in New Delhi as the two economic behemoths sought to forge closer ties. Money SHARMA / AFP
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Europe and India Seek Closer Ties with 'Mother of All Deals'

European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in February 2025 in New Delhi as the two economic behemoths sought to forge closer ties. Money SHARMA / AFP
European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in February 2025 in New Delhi as the two economic behemoths sought to forge closer ties. Money SHARMA / AFP

India and Europe hope to strike the "mother of all deals" when EU chiefs meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi next week, as the two economic behemoths seek to forge closer ties.

Facing challenges from China and the United States, India and the European Union have been negotiating a massive free trade pact -- and talks, first launched about two decades ago, are nearing the finishing line.

"We are on the cusp of a historic trade agreement," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this week.

Von der Leyen and European Council president Antonio Costa will attend Republic Day celebrations Monday before an EU-India summit Tuesday, where they hope to shake hands on the accord.

Securing a pact described by India's Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal as "the mother of all deals", would be a major win for Brussels and New Delhi as both seek to open up new markets in the face of US tariffs and Chinese export controls.

But officials have been eager to stress there is more to it than commerce.

"The EU and India are moving closer together at the time when the rules-based international order is under unprecedented pressure through wars, coercion and economic fragmentation," the EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas said Wednesday.

- 'Untapped potential' -

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and US President Donald Trump's punitive tariffs have brought momentum to the relationship between India and the EU, said Praveen Donthi, of the International Crisis Group think tank.

"The EU eyes the Indian market and aims to steer a rising power like India away from Russia, while India seeks to diversify its partnerships, doubling down on its strategy of multi-alignment at a time when its relations with the US have taken a downward turn," he said.

The summit will offer Brussels the chance to turn the page after a bruising transatlantic crisis over Greenland -- now seemingly defused.

Together the EU and India account for about a quarter of the world's population and GDP.

Bilateral trade in goods reached 120 billion euros ($139 billion) in 2024, an increase of nearly 90 percent over the past decade, according to EU figures, with a further 60 billion euros ($69 billion) in trade in services.

But both parties are eager to do more.

"India still accounts for around only around 2.5 percent of total EU trade in goods, compared with close to 15 percent for China," an EU official said, adding the figure gave a sense of the "untapped potential" an agreement could unlock.

EU makers of cars, machinery and chemicals have much to gain from India lowering entry barriers, said Ignacio Garcia Bercero, an analyst at Brussels think tank Bruegel, who led EU trade talks with New Delhi over a decade ago.

"India is one of the most heavily protected economies in the world, with very, very high tariffs, including on many products where the European Union has a competitive advantage," he told AFP.

Its economy in the doldrums, the 27-member EU is also pushing to ease exports of spirits and wines and strengthen intellectual property rules.

India -- the fastest growing major economy in the world -- wants easier market access for products such as textiles and pharmaceuticals.

- Defense pact -

EU officials were tight-lipped about the deal's contents as negotiations are ongoing.

But agriculture, a sensitive topic in both India and Europe, is likely to play a limited role, with New Delhi eager to protect its dairy and grain sectors.

Talks are focusing on a few sticking points, including the impact of the EU's carbon border tax on steel exports and safety and quality standards in the pharmaceutical and automotive sectors, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Still EU officials said they were confident negotiations could be concluded in time for the summit.

An accord on mobility to facilitate movement for seasonal workers, students, researchers and highly skilled professionals, is also on the menu, alongside a security and defense pact.

The latter envisages closer cooperation in areas including maritime security, cybersecurity and counter-terrorism, an EU official said. It is also a "precondition" for the possible joint production of military equipment, said a second EU official.

New Delhi, which has relied on Moscow for decades for key military hardware, has tried to cut its dependence on Russia in recent years by diversifying imports and pushing its own domestic manufacturing base. Europe is doing the same vis-a-vis the US.

"We're ready to open a new chapter in EU-India relationships, and really to unlock what we think is the transformative potential of this partnership," said another EU official.



Aramco Begins East-West Pipeline Expansion to Boost Oil Export Flexibility

Aramco CEO Amin Nasser speaks at a press conference. (Reuters)
Aramco CEO Amin Nasser speaks at a press conference. (Reuters)
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Aramco Begins East-West Pipeline Expansion to Boost Oil Export Flexibility

Aramco CEO Amin Nasser speaks at a press conference. (Reuters)
Aramco CEO Amin Nasser speaks at a press conference. (Reuters)

Saudi Aramco President and CEO Amin H. Nasser said on Tuesday that preliminary engineering had already started on a planned expansion of the kingdom's vital East-West pipeline as part of plans to increase oil flows through existing infrastructure, assess alternative export routes and explore expanding crude storage capacity at major demand centers. 

"Preliminary engineering is underway for an expansion of the East-West pipeline," Nasser said in an earnings call. The CEO said last month that Aramco hoped to increase the capacity of the pipeline network from 7 million to 10 million barrels a day.

Aramco reported a 9% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit to 117 billion riyals ($31.2 billion) in the third quarter of this year, beating analysts’ expectations of $30.66 billion.

Nasser said the pipeline played a key role in providing additional oil export options during the disruptions, adding that the company was also considering expanding crude oil storage capacity at major demand centers and along export routes.

He said the long-term value of the East-West Pipeline investment had become evident amid the current disruptions to regional trade, noting that the company had recovered the pipeline’s entire construction cost in about 15 days.

Production Capacity

Nasser said Aramco was exploring additional oil export routes and storage capacity outside the Kingdom, while using Gulf export terminals and ship-to-ship transfers to deliver supplies to customers.

He added that the company could raise its maximum sustainable production capacity above 12 million barrels per day if the government decides to do so.

Biggest Supply Shock in the Energy Industry

He described the regional conflict as the biggest supply shock in the energy industry, saying Aramco maintained customer commitments by diversifying export routes, restoring facilities and optimizing operations.

The company’s resilience, he said, stemmed from decades of planning, robust infrastructure, skilled employees, local supply chains and technological innovation, enabling it to continue delivering major projects safely and on schedule despite disruptions.

Zuluf Field Production Expansion

The CEO said work to expand production at the Zuluf field had begun as planned, with additional capacity of up to 600,000 barrels per day expected by the end of the year. He added that Aramco was continuing to advance major crude-to-chemicals projects both inside and outside the Kingdom.

He said the upstream segment delivered stable results, reflecting continued price strength despite a decline from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) in the downstream segment rose by more than $4 billion quarter on quarter.

Ability to Restore Production Within Weeks

Nasser said supplies had become indispensable, and demand remained strong, adding that Aramco could rapidly ramp up production. This capability positioned the company to generate significant financial gains.

More Than 90% of Restart Materials Sourced Locally

Aramco faced significant challenges during the disruptions but managed them through flexibility, speed, multiple options and operational excellence, he stated.

He explained that the company’s integrated response center coordinates management teams with specialized, multidisciplinary rapid-assessment teams, enabling a swift response to incidents and disruptions.

Nasser said Aramco’s local supply chains enabled the rapid sourcing and rerouting of critical materials to ensure operational continuity. The company also uses drones for real-time damage assessments, with more than 90% of restart materials sourced domestically. Independent benchmarks show Aramco completes emergency repairs six times faster than the industry average.

Capital Expenditure

Aramco remained disciplined in its capital spending, maintaining its 2026 capital expenditure guidance at $50 billion-$55 billion, Nasser undescored. The forecast includes costs to restore assets to service and a $2.6 billion cash investment in HUMAIN.

Aramco Invests $2.6 Billion in HUMAIN

He described Aramco’s 49% stake in HUMAIN, backed by a $2.6 billion cash investment and the transfer of key AI assets, as a strategic move to strengthen its competitive advantage and accelerate AI-driven growth.

The investment combines Aramco’s technology infrastructure, more than 90 years of operational experience and low-cost, lower-carbon energy to meet growing demand for AI computing.

HUMAIN aims to develop an integrated AI platform spanning data centers, cloud infrastructure, models and applications, with plans to reach 3 gigawatts of data center capacity by 2030 and become a leading global exporter of AI services.


Investors Ready for Possible Shake-up in Congress as Election Day Arrives

 A fountain near the US Capitol glows blue before sunrise on the day of the US midterm elections in Washington, DC, US, November 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A fountain near the US Capitol glows blue before sunrise on the day of the US midterm elections in Washington, DC, US, November 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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Investors Ready for Possible Shake-up in Congress as Election Day Arrives

 A fountain near the US Capitol glows blue before sunrise on the day of the US midterm elections in Washington, DC, US, November 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A fountain near the US Capitol glows blue before sunrise on the day of the US midterm elections in Washington, DC, US, November 3, 2026. (Reuters)

Investors are weighing the market ‌implications of a possible shift in control of US Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections, focused on whether a strong Democratic showing could pave the way for greater volatility in asset prices, particularly the AI trade which has been a main driver for markets.

The midterms come at a fragile time for markets, with a swoon in AI shares causing investor unease that could be exacerbated by the election results. Tuesday's outcome could hold broad implications for market-sensitive areas including the AI data-center buildout, the US fiscal outlook, defense spending, and regulation in areas such as healthcare, banking and cryptocurrencies.

President Donald Trump's Republican party has controlled both chambers of Congress during the first two years of his second term. Opinion polls ‌show the Democrats ‌are likely to take the House, while the Senate is ‌too ⁠close to call.

"While ⁠probabilities increasingly favor a Blue sweep, several tightly contested Senate races leave open some possibility of Republican control of the Senate or, conversely, a greater than expected Democratic foothold in the Senate," Scott Chronert, US equity strategist at Citigroup, said in a research note. "Equity market reaction is likely positive in the former case and negative in the latter."

Strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management have assigned a 50% probability of a Democratic sweep, a 40% chance ⁠of Democrats winning the House while Republicans retain the Senate, and ‌a 10% probability that Republicans hang onto both ‌chambers.

"The most visible effects of a change in congressional control would likely be greater oversight of ‌the administration and more difficult fiscal negotiations," Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS ‌Global Wealth Management, said in a note on Monday.

A Democratic-led Congress could exert greater scrutiny over AI companies, in part due to growing public opposition to data centers, a risk for a market that has been lifted by such investment spending. While analysts doubt any viable legislation would severely ‌undermine the data-center buildout regardless of the election outcome, they expect a Democratic sweep to lead to investigations into the technology ⁠sector.

Many investors have ⁠said they are eager to get past the elections, which have hung over the markets for the last several weeks. Since 1970, in midterm election years, the S&P 500 index has gained in every six-month period following the election, according to Edward Jones.

While equity volatility has increased in recent sessions, option-market traders are nonetheless not bracing for a massive stock market move following the election results.

Options on the S&P 500 index are priced for a move of about 0.8% in either direction on Wednesday, slightly higher than the 0.6% average implied daily move over the past month, according to ORATS data.

"We could see some volatility come out once there is a clear result, but I wouldn’t assume all that uncertainty disappears Wednesday morning," said Joe Tigay, portfolio manager at Equity Armor Investments. "Election hedges can expire; geopolitical risk doesn’t have an expiration date."


Europe Entering Winter with Lowest Gas Reserves Since 2013, Says IEA

07 July 2025, Rehden: Technical facilities for the injection and withdrawal of natural gas, including several process water tanks, are located on the grounds of the Rehden natural gas storage facility operated by SEFE Storage GmbH. (dpa)
07 July 2025, Rehden: Technical facilities for the injection and withdrawal of natural gas, including several process water tanks, are located on the grounds of the Rehden natural gas storage facility operated by SEFE Storage GmbH. (dpa)
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Europe Entering Winter with Lowest Gas Reserves Since 2013, Says IEA

07 July 2025, Rehden: Technical facilities for the injection and withdrawal of natural gas, including several process water tanks, are located on the grounds of the Rehden natural gas storage facility operated by SEFE Storage GmbH. (dpa)
07 July 2025, Rehden: Technical facilities for the injection and withdrawal of natural gas, including several process water tanks, are located on the grounds of the Rehden natural gas storage facility operated by SEFE Storage GmbH. (dpa)

Europe is entering winter with its lowest level of natural gas reserves since 2013, which could extend pressure on the international market into 2027, the International Energy Agency warned Tuesday.

Europe's natural gas storage reservoirs were 75 percent full at the end of October, well below the minimum target of 80 percent fixed by the European Union and at its lowest level in more than a decade, the IEA said.

Several factors explain the situation.

Natural gas liquefaction facilities in the Gulf have been damaged in US-Iran war, while transit through the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced.

Moreover, European nations are filling their storage reservoirs from low levels at the end of the heating season in the spring.

Buyers had initially held off buying stocks in the hope prices would fall.

Deliveries stepped up in August, September and October, but not enough to make up for the delay, the IEA said.

The amount of gas injected into storage reservoirs this season was about four percent below the average of the past five years, it added.

That makes European nations more dependent upon securing deliveries of additional supplies of LNG to meet peak demand.

It could also make more vulnerable if the winter is colder than usual, there are technical problems in the gas network, or supply problems, said the IEA.

Germany insisted Monday that it would have enough gas for the winter despite missing a storage target.

German gas storage facilities are on average 61 percent full, according to the federal agency that oversees Germany's energy infrastructure and markets.

That is below a legally mandated target for 70 percent by November 1. It also lags behind the European Union average of nearly 75 percent, according to the storage tracking platform AGSI.