As Hamas says it has received firm assurances from mediators, including the US, that the Rafah border crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt will reopen, Israeli media report that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is working to slow the move as much as possible.
Sources from Hamas told Asharq Al-Awsat that the information and assurances received by the movement indicate that “the Rafah crossing will open during the current week, with Thursday the most likely date.”
Israeli media, however, offered conflicting timelines. While the public broadcaster said the crossing would open on Thursday, the Walla news site reported that it would reopen next Sunday.
According to Hamas sources, mediators have provided reassurances that the crossing will indeed open. They said that since efforts began to recover the body of the last Israeli captive, and after it was found, Hamas leaders were told the crossing would be reopened during the current week.
Entry of the Gaza Administration Committee
One Hamas source told Asharq Al-Awsat that it is “likely that some members of the Gaza Administration Committee will be allowed to enter the Strip through the Rafah crossing in the coming days” to hold meetings with Hamas government officials, in preparation for assuming some governmental duties as an initial step toward transferring authority to the committee.
The Palestinian Authority and the European Union mission have confirmed their readiness to begin operating at the crossing immediately under the terms of the 2005 agreement.
While Hamas sources say the crossing “is supposed to open under a full-movement mechanism as stipulated in the agreement,” Netanyahu said at a press conference on Tuesday that it would open in a limited manner and under agreed arrangements, allowing a specific daily number of Palestinians to enter and exit.
Netanyahu added that “Israel will maintain full security control over the crossing and over the entire Gaza Strip.”
What does complete security control mean?
Netanyahu’s remarks about “full security control” have raised widespread questions and concerns among Palestinian factions over how Israel intends to implement such control.
Factional sources estimate that Israel “may seek to remain along the so-called yellow line, which would allow it to retain control over more than 53% of Gaza’s territory.”
They said that while the conditions of the second phase call for an Israeli withdrawal to the limits of the buffer zone, Netanyahu’s government has linked that step to the disarmament of Hamas, an issue still under discussion and likely to face significant obstacles.
If the conditions of the second phase are not implemented, Israel may seek to impose security control by expanding its military presence inside Gaza and taking control of additional areas west of the yellow line, particularly in the north and east of the enclave, while maintaining its military presence in the south.
Even if Israel withdraws, it may seek to maintain a buffer zone larger than that specified in the agreed ceasefire withdrawal maps, extending to more than one kilometer in some areas and possibly up to two kilometers, while remaining smaller in others.
In the event of a withdrawal, Israel would also ensure its continued presence at the Rafah crossing and along the Philadelphi Corridor, which it considers crucial to preventing the smuggling of weapons, explosives, and other materials.
This follows Israel’s destruction of all tunnels along the corridor, strengthening its security grip there, extending to the maritime boundary.
Since Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has exercised complete control over Gaza’s coastal waters, preventing Palestinian fishing boats from approaching those areas or exceeding one nautical mile westward and up to five nautical miles southward toward Egypt’s maritime border.
Sources reiterated their assessment that Israel, by repeatedly emphasizing “full security control,” may aim to carry out surprise targeted killings similar to those conducted in Lebanon, or to strike targets on the pretext that they contain military objectives.
They did not rule out Israel carrying out special operations, including the abduction of faction members deep inside areas controlled by Hamas in Gaza or in the West Bank, to demonstrate its full security control over the enclave.
