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Iran War Fears Cast Shadow Over Gaza Ceasefire

A young girl carries a bag on her back as she walks along a road in the Nuseirat Palestinian refugee camp north of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza. (AFP)
A young girl carries a bag on her back as she walks along a road in the Nuseirat Palestinian refugee camp north of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza. (AFP)
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Iran War Fears Cast Shadow Over Gaza Ceasefire

A young girl carries a bag on her back as she walks along a road in the Nuseirat Palestinian refugee camp north of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza. (AFP)
A young girl carries a bag on her back as she walks along a road in the Nuseirat Palestinian refugee camp north of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza. (AFP)

As momentum builds around efforts to advance the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, the risk of a broader confrontation between the United States and Iran is resurfacing, threatening to upend regional priorities amid Israeli moves that are fueling growing concern.

Experts speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat warned that the Gaza agreement is increasingly vulnerable, saying any strike on Tehran would deliberately draw Israel into a broader escalation aimed at disrupting implementation of the second phase, covering Israeli violations and potentially derailing the deal altogether.

Their warnings came alongside explicit Egyptian caution, voiced on Friday by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, over the consequences of further escalation.

Those concerns coincided with a buildup of US military forces in the Middle East and threats by President Donald Trump to strike Iran, even as he has also said he does not oppose dialogue with Tehran.

On June 13, 2025, Israel, with US support, launched an attack on Iran that lasted 12 days, targeting military and nuclear sites as well as civilian facilities, and killing commanders and scientists. Iran responded by striking Israeli military and intelligence facilities with missiles and drones.

On June 22, the US attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, claiming it had neutralized them. Tehran retaliated by shelling the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, before Washington announced on June 24 a ceasefire between Tel Aviv and Tehran.

Egyptian warnings

Sisi said in remarks on Friday to students at the Police Academy east of Cairo that “the Iranian crisis is escalating and could have an impact on the region.”

He added: “We are making major efforts, quietly, to reach dialogue in any way possible to reduce escalation in the Iranian crisis. We are mindful that if fighting breaks out, it could have grave repercussions for our region, as well as economic consequences.”

The president’s remarks came a day after Israeli media reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had held a security meeting on Iran, and as Israel’s public broadcaster announced on Friday the arrival of a US destroyer at the port of Eilat.

Israeli media said the arrival of the destroyer had been planned and was part of cooperation between the Israeli and US militaries.

Rakha Ahmed Hassan, a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs and a former assistant foreign minister, said Israel benefits from any war and could exploit it to expand what he described as its destructive plans in Gaza and to cover them up, further complicating matters.

Palestinian political analyst Nizar Nazzal said the indicators point to military action against Iran, with unmistakable Israeli efforts through incitement and mobilization, and a desire by Netanyahu to pursue such a course.

He added that Egypt has genuine concerns about the repercussions for the region, with the Gaza agreement likely to be among the first casualties.

Amid the potential escalation, a statement from Netanyahu’s office on Friday said that, in accordance with the ceasefire agreement and the directives of the political leadership, the Rafah crossing will be opened on Sunday in both directions for limited individual movement only.

It added that additional inspections will be conducted at a security checkpoint operated by the security establishment in the area under Israeli army control.

In his speech on Friday, in which he warned of the consequences of striking Iran, the Egyptian president also called for implementation of the second phase of the Gaza agreement, saying this was “extremely important.”

Nazzal said Netanyahu could exploit a strike on Iran to sabotage or delay the start of the second phase of the ceasefire.

Until any potential strike takes place in the coming days or weeks, he said, Netanyahu may divide the phase into parts and prolong its implementation, as seen in what he described as maneuvering and conditions aimed at undermining the opening of the Rafah crossing.

That, he added, allows Netanyahu to evade commitments such as withdrawing from Gaza.

Disruption to the Gaza agreement

Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that political and security circles stress Netanyahu is not currently seeking a full-scale war.

It said he is instead working to narrow the options available to Iran’s leadership through indirect coordination with the Trump administration, while projecting that Israel is ready for all scenarios and that a decision could be taken at any moment.

Hassan criticized what he described as US-Israeli propaganda, expressing concern over the killing of thousands of protesters in Tehran, while showing no concern over the killing of 75,000 Palestinians by Israel or the failure to open the Rafah crossing to allow aid for the starving.

He said the Gaza agreement is tied to Trump’s credibility, and that any threat to it would make him the biggest loser.

Nazzal said mediators of the Gaza agreement are working to prevent Israel from benefiting from any strike, and to ensure that halting or swiftly ending its repercussions is vital in forcing Israel to implement the deal.

He added that Netanyahu supports a strike because it would serve his interests, warning that if war breaks out, it will reach Israel and the Gaza agreement will be disrupted.

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Arab World

Yemen Welcomes EU Terror Designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards control the military activities of all Houthi units (EPA) 
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards control the military activities of all Houthi units (EPA) 
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Yemen Welcomes EU Terror Designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards control the military activities of all Houthi units (EPA) 
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards control the military activities of all Houthi units (EPA) 

The Yemeni government welcomed a European Union decision to designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization, saying the move marked a long-awaited shift toward confronting a central driver of instability and security threats across the region and beyond.

In an official statement, the government said the decision reflected growing European awareness of the destructive role the Guards had played over many years.

It said the group had fueled armed conflicts, systematically supported groups and militias operating outside national state institutions, repeatedly threatened international maritime routes, and persistently undermined the foundations of global stability and security.

The statement said classifying the Guards as a terrorist organization marked a qualitative shift in the international community’s approach to Iran’s behavior and brought to an end a long period of political leniency toward activities that have become a direct threat to collective security, both in the Middle East and beyond.

It added that Yemen’s Houthi group was nothing more than one of the Guards’ direct military arms, and that its project, based on violence, coups, and the imposition of faits accomplis by force, represented a straightforward extension of the destabilizing role led by the Iranian military body outside Iran’s borders.

The government said the Houthis’ record of targeting civilians, shelling civilian infrastructure, launching cross-border attacks, and threatening commercial shipping and maritime navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden clearly demonstrated the group’s organic and operational links to the Guards, in terms of ideology, funding, armament, and military planning.

It said the obstruction of regional and international peace efforts in Yemen, the disruption of political tracks, and the use of organized violence as a negotiating tool were practices consistent with the model adopted by the Guards in managing their proxies in the region and turning them into tools of pressure and blackmail against the international community.

The Yemeni government called on the European Union to complete this step by taking a similar and decisive decision to designate the Houthis as a terrorist organization, in line with European laws and legislation and relevant UN Security Council resolutions, to help dry up the militias’ sources of funding, deter their aggressive behavior, and enhance prospects for a just and lasting peace in Yemen and the region.

Practical measures

In the same context, Information, Culture and Tourism Minister Muammar al-Eryani said the EU’s decision to classify the Guards as a terrorist organization was “a step in the right direction and a clear message that the international community has begun to deal seriously with one of the most dangerous sources of instability in the region, after years of overlooking its cross-border military and security roles.”

He said in an official statement that the importance of the decision lay not only in its political symbolism but also in the practical executive measures that must follow, including drying up funding sources, freezing assets, pursuing networks and fronts linked to the Guards, and cutting off channels of support, smuggling, and armament they manage across multiple countries and regions.

Eryani said the Guards had played a direct and organized role in Yemen by managing the Houthi coup project, noting that their involvement went beyond supplying weapons, experts, technology, and funding to include operational supervision and the management of military and security networks in areas under Houthi control.

He said this was proven by field evidence and by the roles played by Guards operatives, including Hasan Irlu and Abdul Reza Shahlai, whom he described as operational field managers of Iran’s project.

He said what happened in Yemen was not an exceptional case but part of a fixed regional pattern based on building armed militias parallel to the state, fueling conflicts, spreading chaos and terrorism, and using proxies to impose realities by force and blackmail the international community.

Historic decision

The Yemeni position follows what it described as a historic decision taken by EU foreign ministers on Jan. 29, 2026, to add Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to the bloc’s terrorist list, in a shift described as ending a phase of diplomatic caution and ushering in a new era of economic and legal confrontation with what it called the backbone of Iran’s ruling system.

The decision came in direct response to the violent crackdown by Iranian authorities on widespread protests in late 2025 and early 2026, which rights groups estimate resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians, as well as the Guards’ expanding regional role, including supplying Russia with drones and threatening global energy security and international shipping.

The designation entails a package of strict legal and political consequences, including asset freezes, travel bans, and the criminalization of any form of cooperation or support, alongside tighter diplomatic isolation, limiting the Guards’ ability to operate under political or economic cover inside Europe.

The Yemeni government said the path to regional security and stability begins with ending the policy of impunity for actors that sponsor and manage cross-border armed militias, supporting national states and their legitimate institutions, and respecting countries’ unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.

It reiterated its full commitment to working closely with the international community, foremost the European Union, to achieve peace, combat terrorism, protect international navigation, and build a safe and stable future for the peoples of the region.

Arab World

Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire Panel to Stay, French Role Remains Military

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets Armed Forces Commander General Rodolphe Haykal ahead of his departure for Washington (Lebanese Presidency)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets Armed Forces Commander General Rodolphe Haykal ahead of his departure for Washington (Lebanese Presidency)
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Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire Panel to Stay, French Role Remains Military

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets Armed Forces Commander General Rodolphe Haykal ahead of his departure for Washington (Lebanese Presidency)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets Armed Forces Commander General Rodolphe Haykal ahead of his departure for Washington (Lebanese Presidency)

A statement by the US embassy in Beirut has cut through weeks of Lebanese speculation over the fate of the committee monitoring the cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel, following delays in its meetings.

The statement also signaled that no French civilian member would be added to the body, after sustained local media reports of US–French wrangling over its composition.

Notably, the embassy’s surprise statement, issued on Friday, emphasized the committee’s “military character” and set a date for its subsequent meetings in late February.

The developments come ahead of a visit by Lebanese Armed Forces Commander General Rodolphe Haykal to Washington, where he is due to meet several US officials over three days.

The three-day visit is scheduled for February 3-5.

Preparations for the visit were the focus of a meeting Haykal held with President Joseph Aoun, who was briefed on the arrangements and planned meetings, according to a statement from the presidency.

Military needs

According to ministerial sources, discussions centered on what Haykal will present in Washington, including the military’s needs at this sensitive stage, both logistical support and armaments.

This comes as the army’s responsibilities expand, particularly in southern Lebanon, where it has assumed increasing responsibilities for maintaining stability and protecting civilians.

Weapons exclusivity plan and obstacles

Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Haykal will brief US officials on the reality of the army’s deployment in the south under the weapons exclusivity plan, as well as the obstacles hindering its completion, especially south of the Litani River.

They said the continued Israeli occupation remains a direct impediment to the army’s ability to fully assert control and carry out its assigned missions under agreed mechanisms.

The army commander will also outline, the sources said, the measures the military has taken to implement the state’s weapons exclusivity plan, as well as the practical challenges it faces on the ground amid the prevailing security situation and the sensitivity of the current phase.

He will stress the need for comprehensive political and international backing to ensure the plan’s success.

Beyond south of the Litani

As anticipation grows in Lebanon and abroad over the next phase of weapons exclusivity north of the Litani, and amid objections voiced by Hezbollah officials, the sources said Haykal’s Washington visit will also address the post–south Litani phase.

He will explain the military’s vision for completing deployment, consolidating stability, and reactivating the “mechanism” committee, including the format of meetings and coordination procedures in the coming phase, on condition that Israel withdraws from occupied Lebanese territory.

In this context, ministerial sources said President Aoun stressed during the meeting the importance of Haykal focusing in his talks on the need for severe international pressure on Israel to withdraw, enabling the army to perform its role fully and paving the way for the release of Lebanese detainees and the restoration of lasting calm in the south.

Paris conference

The Paris conference expected on March 5 to support the Lebanese army will also feature in Haykal’s US meetings.

The conference has been postponed several times and is closely tied to the army’s implementation of the weapons exclusivity plan.

President Aoun had asked security agencies two weeks ago to prepare detailed reports on their needs so participants would be fully informed, helping the conference meet its objectives.

Haykal is scheduled to meet US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander General Brad Cooper at the command’s headquarters in Tampa, Florida, to discuss military and security cooperation between Lebanon and the US. Discussions will also cover the mechanism committee.

He will then travel to Washington on Tuesday, February 3, to hold a series of security and diplomatic meetings with US officials, members of Congress, and White House officials through February 5.

Mechanism meeting on February 25

The developments come as Israeli attacks continued, including a strike that killed one person in the southern Lebanese town of Siddiqine after his car was targeted.

At the same time, the US embassy in Beirut announced that the mechanism committee will convene on February 25, following a one-month suspension of its meetings and reports suggesting it could be dissolved.

Writing on X, the embassy stated that the US Embassy in Beirut and US Central Command reaffirm that the military coordination framework, as established in the cessation of hostilities agreement announced on November 27, 2024, remains in place and fully operational, with the same objectives, participants, and leadership.”

The embassy added that the next mechanism meeting will be held in Naqoura on February 25, 2026, with subsequent meetings scheduled for March 25, April 22, and May 20, stressing that “these meetings serve as a core forum for military coordination among the participating parties.”

Arab World

Lebanon Enforces Funds Checks Despite Hezbollah Objections

Lebanon’s Justice Minister Adel Nassar. (NNA)
Lebanon’s Justice Minister Adel Nassar. (NNA)
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Lebanon Enforces Funds Checks Despite Hezbollah Objections

Lebanon’s Justice Minister Adel Nassar. (NNA)
Lebanon’s Justice Minister Adel Nassar. (NNA)

A circular issued by Lebanon’s Justice Minister Adel Nassar, now in force, has placed notaries public on the front line of the country’s fight against money laundering, requiring them to verify the source of funds and the identities of parties involved in sales contracts, purchase agreements, and powers of attorney.

The measure, which took effect at the start of this year, is aimed at curbing the cash economy and boosting transparency in line with international standards on combating money laundering and terrorism financing.

It has also reignited and intensified a political campaign by Hezbollah, which says the move tightens pressure on the party and its support base.

The law requires notaries to carry out several key tasks, notably verifying that parties to transactions are not listed on national or international sanctions lists, refraining from completing any transaction if that proves otherwise, and notifying the Justice Ministry and the Special Investigation Commission at Lebanon’s central bank.

The circular also stresses the need to verify the source of funds and to state it explicitly in the transaction or contract, and to refrain from drafting or certifying any document if it is not possible to establish the identity of the beneficial owner.

The measure targets all those listed on the US sanctions lists and mainly affects Hezbollah, its officials, and its institutions. The party considers the step part of what it describes as a US blockade against it and says it strips citizens of their civil rights.

Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem said the justice minister was “not a judicial police officer for America and Israel” and should stop preventing citizens from completing their transactions.

Qassem asked: “Has Lebanon turned into a prison for its citizens under American management? Is the justice minister or the governor of the central bank an employee of the American administration in Lebanon’s American prison?”

The circular has moved beyond political and legal objections raised against it. The justice minister said all notaries had complied with its requirements since implementation began at the start of the year, noting ongoing coordination to address practical issues that emerged during execution.

Nassar told Asharq Al-Awsat that meetings had been held between representatives of notaries and the Special Investigation Commission at the central bank, during which mechanisms and standards were clarified.

He said an office within the commission had also been designated to respond to notaries’ inquiries and provide necessary information while transactions are being processed.

The minister said the measures put Lebanon on a path of transparency and would positively affect the Financial Action Task Force's view of the country’s situation.

He described the circular as part of a package of steps adopted by the state to exit the FATF gray list or at least avoid being placed on the blocklist, adding that the measure was a key factor in curbing money laundering without infringing on the civil rights of sellers or buyers.

Hezbollah continued its attack on those involved in the decision.

MP Ali Fayyad said in a speech to parliament during budget discussions that the justice minister, the foreign minister, and the central bank governor were “carrying out a systematic strangulation of our community, sheltering behind the law while overstepping it.”

“We are a people subjected to daily assassination by Israel, and there are those inside who are pouncing on us,” he said.

A number of those affected have filed an appeal before the Shura State Council seeking to annul the circular, arguing that its provisions are not practically applicable and that they impose responsibilities on notaries that exceed their legal authority.

The appellants warned that the circular could turn notaries into quasi-judicial police officers and entangle them in political and security matters unrelated to their work.

Despite objections that have reached the level of accusing anyone who complies with international anti-money laundering standards of treason, the justice minister said there would be no retreat from the circular.

He stressed that it meets international compliance requirements while providing notaries with a legal protective framework that shields them from future accountability if they adhere to the specified procedures.

Some notaries acknowledged that implementation has entered a practical phase, even if conditions and standards sometimes differ from one notary to another. One pointed to inconsistencies between notaries’ procedures and those of the land registry in property registration.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that verifying the source of funds has become an established procedure, carried out in coordination with the Special Investigation Commission at the central bank.

“There is no doubt that many of the ambiguities that accompanied the issuance of the circular are gradually becoming clearer with implementation,” he said.