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Novak Says Oil Demand to Gradually Rise in March, April

FILED - 13 April 2015, Berlin: Then Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak attends an event in Berlin. Photo: Britta Pedersen/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa
FILED - 13 April 2015, Berlin: Then Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak attends an event in Berlin. Photo: Britta Pedersen/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa
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Novak Says Oil Demand to Gradually Rise in March, April

FILED - 13 April 2015, Berlin: Then Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak attends an event in Berlin. Photo: Britta Pedersen/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa
FILED - 13 April 2015, Berlin: Then Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak attends an event in Berlin. Photo: Britta Pedersen/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday there is currently a balance on the global oil market, while demand will be gradually rising in March and April.

Novak’s comments came when asked about the OPEC+ group’s plans for its production policy.

OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027, close to the 1.38 million bpd growth expected this year, it said in a monthly report on its website.

The outlook is OPEC's first 2027 projection in its monthly report.

The report forecast demand for OPEC+ crude will average 43 million bpd in 2026, unchanged from last month and close to what OPEC+ produced in December. The organization projected that demand for OPEC+ crude will average 43.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2027.

The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.

Novak did not indicate possible decisions for the months following April.

“As shipping and travel intensify, demand will gradually increase starting in March and April. This will be an additional factor to ensure balance,” he noted.

Eight OPEC+ countries on Sunday agreed to maintain a planned pause in their oil output hikes for March.

The eight countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—reaffirmed their commitment to oil market stability, based on a stable global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals reflected in declining inventory levels.

The OPEC+ countries reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) reduction may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner. The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions.

Those countries raised output quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) from April through the end of December 2025, equivalent to nearly 3% of global demand.

India and Russian Oil

Separately, the Kremlin said on Tuesday it had heard no statements from India about halting purchases of Russian oil after US President Donald Trump said New Delhi had agreed to stop such purchases as part of a trade accord with Washington.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was carefully analyzing Trump's remarks on relations with India.

Asked directly if India had decided to stop buying Russian oil, Peskov said: “So far, we have not heard any statements from Delhi on this issue.”

US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal on Monday with India that slashes US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% in exchange for India halting Russian oil purchases and lowering trade barriers.

Trump announced the deal on social media following a call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, noting that India would now buy oil from the US and potentially Venezuela.

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OPEC+ Agrees in Principle on Theoretical Oil Output Hike amid Iran War Paralysis

FILE PHOTO: A model of an oil pump is seen in front of the OPEC logo in this illustration taken January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A model of an oil pump is seen in front of the OPEC logo in this illustration taken January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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OPEC+ Agrees in Principle on Theoretical Oil Output Hike amid Iran War Paralysis

FILE PHOTO: A model of an oil pump is seen in front of the OPEC logo in this illustration taken January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A model of an oil pump is seen in front of the OPEC logo in this illustration taken January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

OPEC+ has agreed in principle to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, three sources with knowledge of the group's talks said ahead of its meeting later on Sunday, a rise that will largely exist on paper as its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz - the world's most important oil route - since the end of February and cut exports from OPEC+ members.
Some group members such as Russia are unable to increase output due to Western sanctions and damage to infrastructure inflicted during the war with Ukraine.

Inside the Gulf, damage to infrastructure from missile and drone attacks has also been severe. Several Gulf officials have said it would take months to resume normal operations and reach production targets even if the war stopped and Hormuz reopened immediately, according to Reuters.
Iran on Saturday said Iraq was exempt from any restrictions to transit the vital route, and shipping data on Sunday showed a tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passing through the strait. Still, it remains to be seen if more vessels will take the risk involved, a source close to the issue said.

Sunday's OPEC+ talks are set to start at around 1300 GMT with a gathering of ministers called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which does not decide on output policy.

After this, eight members of OPEC+ hold separate talks having agreed in principle to raise output quotas by 206,000 bpd for May, the three sources said. This would be the same as the increase decided for April at their last meeting held on March 1, just as the war began to disrupt oil flows. A month later, the largest oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as many as 12 to 15 million bpd or up to 15% of global supply. Crude prices have soared to a four-year high close to $120 a barrel. Oil prices could spike above $150 - an all-time high - if flows via Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May, JPMorgan said on Thursday. A quota increase will have little immediate impact on supply but would signal readiness to raise output once Hormuz reopens, OPEC+ sources have said. Consultancy Energy Aspects called the increase "academic" as long as disruptions in the strait persist.

Business

War Weighs on Egypt’s Private Sector as PMI Hits Near Two-Year Low in March

People walk past a closed cinema as shops close early under a government-ordered curfew aimed at reducing energy costs in downtown Cairo on April 2, 2026. (AFP)
People walk past a closed cinema as shops close early under a government-ordered curfew aimed at reducing energy costs in downtown Cairo on April 2, 2026. (AFP)
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War Weighs on Egypt’s Private Sector as PMI Hits Near Two-Year Low in March

People walk past a closed cinema as shops close early under a government-ordered curfew aimed at reducing energy costs in downtown Cairo on April 2, 2026. (AFP)
People walk past a closed cinema as shops close early under a government-ordered curfew aimed at reducing energy costs in downtown Cairo on April 2, 2026. (AFP)

Egypt's non-oil private ‌sector deteriorated at its sharpest pace in almost two years in March, as the Middle East war drove up costs and dampened client demand, a closely watched business survey showed on Sunday.

The headline S&P Global Egypt Purchasing Managers' Index fell for a fourth consecutive month, dropping to 48.0 in March from 48.9 in February — its lowest reading since April 2024.

The ‌figure remained below ‌the 50.0 threshold that ‌separates growth ⁠from contraction, though ⁠it was broadly in line with the survey's long-run average of 48.2.

Output and new orders were the chief drags on the index, with both measures also hitting their lowest levels for nearly two years. Firms frequently blamed ⁠the Middle East conflict for dampening client ‌demand, partly through ‌intensifying price pressures.

In a first, business expectations for the ‌coming 12 months slipped into negative territory, with ‌companies citing uncertainty over the war as a key reason for pessimism, though the degree of gloom was described as mild.

David Owen, senior economist at ‌S&P Global Market Intelligence, nevertheless noted that "the latest figure of 48.0 still relates ⁠to ⁠annual GDP growth of around 4.3%," adding that "recent data suggests the domestic non-oil sector is on a solid underlying growth path."

Cost pressures remained a serious concern, however. Input prices surged at their joint-sharpest pace in one-and-a-half years, as firms cited fuel costs and other war-related commodity price increases, compounded by a stronger US dollar.

In response, companies raised their selling prices at the fastest rate in 10 months, though the increase remained modest overall.

Business

Middle East War Presents ‘Serious Risk’ for Africa, Warns Report

Festus Mwirotsi, 34, scouts for pests and diseases in roses meant for export at Isinya Roses farm in Kajiado, Kenya, March 24, 2026, as Kenya's flower industry is losing up to $1.4 million a week as the Iran war cuts demand and disrupts shipping. (AP)
Festus Mwirotsi, 34, scouts for pests and diseases in roses meant for export at Isinya Roses farm in Kajiado, Kenya, March 24, 2026, as Kenya's flower industry is losing up to $1.4 million a week as the Iran war cuts demand and disrupts shipping. (AP)
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Middle East War Presents ‘Serious Risk’ for Africa, Warns Report

Festus Mwirotsi, 34, scouts for pests and diseases in roses meant for export at Isinya Roses farm in Kajiado, Kenya, March 24, 2026, as Kenya's flower industry is losing up to $1.4 million a week as the Iran war cuts demand and disrupts shipping. (AP)
Festus Mwirotsi, 34, scouts for pests and diseases in roses meant for export at Isinya Roses farm in Kajiado, Kenya, March 24, 2026, as Kenya's flower industry is losing up to $1.4 million a week as the Iran war cuts demand and disrupts shipping. (AP)

The Middle East war "presents a serious risk to Africa", the African Union and the African Development Bank (AfDB) said in a report seen by AFP Saturday.

The conflict threatens to increase the cost of living and curtail growth on the continent, the report warned.

The Middle East accounts for 15.8 percent of Africa's imports and 10.9 percent of its exports, the report noted.

"The conflict, which already has triggered a trade shock, could quickly turn into a cost-of-living crisis across Africa through higher fuel and food prices, rising shipping and insurance costs, exchange rate pressures, and tighter fiscal conditions," it added.

The growth rate of most African countries continues to be slower than before the Covid pandemic, it noted.

"A loss in output growth of 0.2 percentage points on Africa's GDP is projected for 2026 if it (the conflict) exceeds six months," it said.

"The longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption to shipping routes and energy and fertilizer supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown across the continent."

Reduced deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf will impact fertilizer production, limiting its availability during the crucial planting period up to May, it added.

- Currencies hit -

The report was compiled by the UN Development Program (UNDP) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).

According to recent data from the AfDB, the currencies of 29 African countries have already depreciated, increasing the cost of servicing external debt, making imports more expensive and reducing foreign exchange reserves,

Some countries could see some short-term gains, such as Nigeria for its oil exports or Mozambique for its LNG.

The rerouting of ships around Cape of Good Hope could benefit ports in Mozambique, South Africa, Namibia and Mauritius.

Kenya is establishing itself as a logistics hub in East Africa, while Ethiopian Airlines, the leading carrier in Africa, is serving as an "emergency air bridge" between the continent, Asia, and Europe, the report noted.

But these gains are likely to be uneven and will not offset the consequences for inflation, budgets, and food security in Africa, they warned.

Above all, the current crisis could hit the costs of humanitarian aid and divert donor funds towards other priorities.