Hezbollah has shifted position in Lebanon from open confrontation with the state to “managing” its differences with it as it starts to realize that keeping up its defiant approach has cost it its allies.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem made conciliatory statements on Monday, marking a shift in tone that in recent months had been sharply critical of the president and government.
Over the weekend, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam carried out a historic two-day tour of the South, a Hezbollah stronghold, where he was warmly welcomed across political divides, especially among Hezbollah supporters.
The visit itself would not have been possible without a green light from Hezbollah’s leadership. Qassem even described the tour as “positive”, adding that disputes with President Joseph Aoun were being “managed.”
Hezbollah's shift in tone cannot be separated from the ongoing regional tensions between its main backer Iran and the United States. However, even when the party had intensified its criticism of the state, on the ground, the Lebanese army succeeded in completing the first phase of the government’s plan to impose state monopoly over arms.
Opponents of the group explained that the heated rhetoric was largely aimed at rallying Hezbollah supporters around the party, which is in crisis in wake of the major blows Israel dealt it during the 2024 war and the ongoing pressure on it to disarm as regional balances of power continue to change.
Ministerial sources close to the presidency described Hezbollah’s recent stances as “positive” and “realistic” given that it lacks other options.
They told Asharq Al-Awsat, however, that “nothing in politics is free” and so it remains to be seen what Hezbollah wants in return of its change in position.
Moreover, they noted that the change is aimed at Hezbollah supporters, who are still reeling from the war and demanding reconstruction of areas destroyed by Israel in the war, which is another issue that is weighing heavily on the party.
Hezbollah has effectively realized that maintaining a critical position against the president will be costly for it and its support base, explained the sources.
Adapting to the new reality
Former Minister Rashid Derbas said Qassem’s “conciliatory” statements stand in contrast with his previous stances.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “The warm welcome received by the PM in the South aims to demonstrate to Hezbollah’s support base that the state does embrace them and there is nothing wrong with that. On the contrary, it is in their best interest given the current reality.”
“Hezbollah is realizing that it is now without friends or allies inside Lebanon and beyond because balances of power are changing due to the tensions between Iran and the US that could lead to war,” he added.
“So, Hezbollah is adapting to this reality,” Derbas went on to say. “Two states can no longer exist within one. This situation needs to be rectified, especially in wake of all the tragedies Hezbollah’s support base has endured. The base is already frustrated and starting to realize that maintaining a defiant tone will not lead anywhere.”
Given the pressure, shift in position and regional tensions, the real countdown for Hezbollah’s disarmament has effectively begun, stressed Derbas.
“The weapons are slowly losing their role, while their regional missions have come to an end,” he added.
