Rarely do record 15-time winners Real Madrid enter a Champions League clash as underdogs, but this is the situation when Manchester City visit the Santiago Bernabeu on Wednesday.
With key attackers Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo Goes set to miss the game injured and Alvaro Arbeloa's team in inconsistent form, the Premier League side are firm favorites in the last 16 tie.
Man City beat Madrid in the league phase in the Spanish capital and have strengthened since then, with Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi arriving, while midfielder Rodri is fit after missing that match during a long-term injury absence.
Xabi Alonso was at Madrid's helm then. But his successor Arbeloa has not got the team playing with more quality or consistency.
Perhaps his biggest success has been helping winger Vinicius Junior back to form, and the Brazilian represents Real Madrid's best hope of success against City.
The winger was key in Madrid's triumph over Jose Mourinho's Benfica in the play-off round, despite allegedly being racially abused in the first leg by Benfica's Gianluca Prestianni, who denies it.
Vinicius said he had felt "a little tired" after beating Celta Vigo in La Liga on Friday, with the team leaning on him over the past few matches. By contrast Man City coach Pep Guardiola rested Manchester City striker Erling Haaland for his team's FA Cup win over Newcastle at the weekend.
In the past Madrid have shown grit to get through Champions League ties when they have been outplayed and they will likely need to find that resolve again.
They needed a deflected 95th-minute goal from Fede Valverde to scrape their 2-1 win over Celta.
Arbeloa was asked what his team's approach was, as it was not particularly clear from their flat performance.
"To win the game, which is what Real Madrid plays for," responded the coach. "That's what we want and the objective we had today."
The same will be true on Wednesday, by any means necessary.
Arbeloa called on Madrid's supporters, who have been critical of their own players at times this season, to inspire the team against City.
"We need them, we need them on Wednesday, and they know it better than anyone," said Arbeloa.
"It's a Champions League night against a very tough opponent, one of the biggest clubs in the world of football right now.
"Playing at home, we know we're much stronger when the Madrid fans are on our side."
- Injury plague -
There has been some speculation that Madrid's top scorer Mbappe, who hit a hat-trick last season against City in the play-off round, could make a surprise return on Wednesday.
However, Spanish newspaper AS reports both he and Bellingham are targeting a potential return in the second leg.
Madrid have problems elsewhere with defenders Eder Militao and Alvaro Carreras and midfielder Dani Ceballos sidelined, and David Alaba also doubtful.
Guardiola may look to exploit Trent Alexander-Arnold's defensive frailty now the England international has begun to start more regularly. Celta got in behind the former Liverpool right-back to open the scoring last week.
Another positive for Arbeloa, of which there have been few since his arrival in January, has been the solid displays of Aurelien Tchouameni and Valverde.
They can offer the steel which Madrid need to withstand the might of Haaland and company.
In the 15 encounters between the two teams, they have each won five and also drawn five. Including the two upcoming matches, the fixture becomes the third most-played in the history of the competition.
This may well be the least confident Madrid have been in approaching any of the previous knock-out ties, even if they would never admit it.
"Real Madrid is about fighting until the end, believing, battling," said Arbeloa after beating Celta.
"Yes, we could do a lot of things better but with the personality and character we showed, I hope this can be a turning point and from here, everything goes much better."
