Asian Shares Advance as Markets Await Signals on When the War with Iran May End

 South Korean dealers work in front of monitors at the Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 09 March 2026. (EPA)
South Korean dealers work in front of monitors at the Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 09 March 2026. (EPA)
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Asian Shares Advance as Markets Await Signals on When the War with Iran May End

 South Korean dealers work in front of monitors at the Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 09 March 2026. (EPA)
South Korean dealers work in front of monitors at the Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 09 March 2026. (EPA)

Asian shares were mostly higher Wednesday with several benchmarks giving up much of their early gains as investors awaited signals on when the war with Iran may end.

US futures rose and oil prices were mixed.

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gained 1.3% to 54,926.50 and South Korea's Kospi picked up 0.6% to 5,562.40 after gaining more than 3% earlier in the day.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell back, slipping 0.2% to 25,921.02, while the Shanghai Composite index edged 0.2% higher to 4,131.39.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.6% to $8,743.50.

Taiwan's benchmark climbed 4.1% and the Sensex in India fell 1.1%. In Bangkok, the SET gained 1.3%.

Oil prices have remained sharply below their peaks hit on Monday. Such spikes have been rocking financial markets worldwide because of worries that the war could block the global flow of oil and natural gas for a long time.

“Asian equities and global futures managed to steady the ship today, helped by crude holding just below the psychologically charged $90 line. In the current regime, that single number functions less like a price and more like a pressure valve,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

Early Wednesday, the price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, was down 2 cents at $87.78. That’s about 10% below its settlement price the day before.

US benchmark crude oil gained 53 cents to $83.98 per barrel.

Oil prices plunged Monday afternoon from a high of nearly $120 per barrel, its most expensive level since 2022, after President Donald Trump told CBS News he thinks “the war is very complete, pretty much.” That raised hopes that the war may end relatively soon, which could allow oil to flow freely again from the Middle East to customers around the world.

However, both sides have sharpened their rhetoric as the war enters its 11th day. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth promised the most intense strikes yet while the Pentagon detailed the broader toll of injuries sustained by US troops.

The US said it took out more than a dozen minelaying Iranian vessels Tuesday, and Tehran vowed to block the region’s oil exports, saying it would not allow “even a single liter” to be shipped to its enemies.

One point where Trump has remained clear was his desire to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. The war has effectively blocked the waterway off Iran’s coast, where a fifth of the world’s oil sails on a typical day.

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” Trump said in a posting on his social media network late Monday.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 dipped 0.2% to 6,781.48, a day after its latest wild swings caused by extreme moves in the oil market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 34 points, or 0.1% to 47,706.51 and the Nasdaq composite edged higher by less than 0.1% to 22,697.10.

Oracle's shares on the Nasdaq surged 12% in premarket trading early Wednesday after the company reported its earnings and revenue jumped 20% in the last quarter, much better than analysts had forecast.

Stock markets have a history of bouncing back relatively quickly from military conflicts, as long as oil prices don’t stay too high for too long. Uncertainty about whether that may happen this time around has led to stunning swings up and down for markets worldwide, often hour-to-hour.

If oil prices do stay high for long, household budgets already stretched by high inflation could snap under the pressure. Companies would see their own bills jump for fuel and to stock items on their store shelves or in their data warehouses. It all raises the possibility of a worst-case scenario for the global economy, “stagflation,” where growth stagnates and inflation remains high.

In other dealings early Wednesday, the dollar rose to 158.08 Japanese yen from 158.05 yen. The euro rose to $1.1638 from $1.1610.



Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The current oil supply crisis shows there is underinvestment in oil refining as demand holds resilient, Saudi state-owned Aramco's vice president of market analysis and sustainability, Musaab Al Mulla, said on Tuesday.

Around 3 ⁠million barrels per ⁠day of refining capacity closed between 2020 and 2023, Al Mulla said at the S&P Global Energy Middle East ⁠Petroleum and Gas Conference in London.

"Now we realize if you have those refineries you may have definitely mitigated the impacts of the crisis today," he said.

The war in Iran, attacks on energy infrastructure and ⁠Iran's effective ⁠closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by a US naval blockade, have removed around 14 million bpd of oil supply from Middle East producers to the global market.


OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)

The war in the Middle East has dented economic growth prospects worldwide, with a more severe shock likely if no effective ceasefire is agreed before 2027, the OECD warned Wednesday.

Global economic growth is now forecast to slip to 2.8 percent for 2026 if Gulf exports of oil and gas return to pre-conflict levels in the third quarter, the group of 38 industrialized countries said in its quarterly update.

Previously the OECD had forecast full-year global growth of 2.9 percent.

But if the Middle East war continues into next year, however, global growth could slow to 2.1 percent, the OECD said -- well below the average annual growth of 3.4 percent seen from 2013 to 2019, before the Covid pandemic.

"The longer the disruptions last, the larger the economic and social costs become," the group's chief economist Stefano Scarpetta said in the report.

Many countries would risk falling into recession, he noted, and a drop in investment spending -- "including in energy-intensive AI" -- would likely push up unemployment.

Sustained high prices for energy as well as fertilizer and other key products from hydrocarbon production in the Gulf would weigh especially hard on developing countries that have "higher shares of energy and food in household consumption".

Even if the war sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February ends in the coming weeks, the OECD forecast global inflation rising to 4.0 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2025.

In this "time-limited disruption scenario", the group expects US growth to slow to 2.0 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2027, after growing 2.1 percent last year.

In the eurozone, where many countries are highly dependent on energy imports, GDP growth will slump to 0.8 percent this year after 1.4 percent last year, assuming a Mideast ceasefire is secured in the coming weeks.


Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
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Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector expanded at the fastest pace in three months in May as domestic demand improved and supply chains stabilized, while business optimism remained subdued amid conflict in the region, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 52.8 in May from 51.5 in April. The 50 mark separates growth from contraction, Reuters reported.

Output accelerated at the ⁠fastest pace in ⁠three months after March's downturn following the start of the Iran war, as firms cited normalizing working conditions, revived contracts and stronger local demand.

Export sales fell for a third straight month, hit by shipping disruption, higher freight and fuel costs, geopolitical tensions and stronger competition. The pace of decline eased only modestly from April's survey-record contraction.

However, supply chains improved, with suppliers' delivery times shortening for the first time in three months as ⁠firms relied ⁠more on local vendors. Backlogs of work rose for an 11th consecutive month, albeit moderately.

“Overall, the latest PMI reading supports the expectation that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy will continue its upward trend during the remainder of 2026," said Naif Al-Ghaith, Riyad Bank's chief economist.