‘No Good Choice’: The Afghans Forced to Return from Iran

 An Afghan national arrives with his belongings at the Islam Qala border crossing between Afghanistan and Iran in Herat province on March 10, 2026, upon his arrival from Iran amid the Middle East war. (AFP)
An Afghan national arrives with his belongings at the Islam Qala border crossing between Afghanistan and Iran in Herat province on March 10, 2026, upon his arrival from Iran amid the Middle East war. (AFP)
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‘No Good Choice’: The Afghans Forced to Return from Iran

 An Afghan national arrives with his belongings at the Islam Qala border crossing between Afghanistan and Iran in Herat province on March 10, 2026, upon his arrival from Iran amid the Middle East war. (AFP)
An Afghan national arrives with his belongings at the Islam Qala border crossing between Afghanistan and Iran in Herat province on March 10, 2026, upon his arrival from Iran amid the Middle East war. (AFP)

Exhausted Afghans cross the border from Iran in a sandstorm, leaving behind a country in the grip of war to return to a homeland that is battered by conflict and humanitarian crisis.

At the Islam Qala crossing point in Herat province, western Afghanistan, Talibshah, who did not to give his family name, said he had been working in agriculture northwest of Tehran.

He was cheated by money changers at the border and was trying to figure out how to get back to Sar-e-Pol province in the north, hundreds of kilometers away on difficult, mountainous roads.

Talibshah's work in Qazvin in northern Iran helped support seven people -- his mother, father, brothers and sisters -- at a time when drought had made farming difficult, if not impossible, back home.

"I don't know whether I will be able to find a job or not. We are left without prospects," he told AFP.

"If I don't find a job here, I'll have to emigrate again. We have no choice. We can't starve," he added.

- Funding shortfall -

The United Nations has warned that nearly half of Afghanistan -- 21.9 million people -- will need humanitarian aid this year.

Since February 26, the country has been hit by fresh clashes with neighboring Pakistan to the east, which have killed at least 56 civilians and forced about 115,000 from their homes.

The UN refugee agency's representative in Afghanistan, Arafat Jamal, said there was "no good choice" for those coming back.

"They're fleeing war in Iran and coming to a country that is also itself at war," he said. "In other words, these people are coming into a country that is wracked by drought, that has unemployment, and that now has conflict inside it."

Since the war began in the Middle East on February 28, about 1,700 people have returned every day. But the UNHCR is expecting bigger numbers in the future if there is no let-up in the conflict.

The agency is ready in terms of staff and infrastructure to receive those leaving Iran but funding was lacking for the relief effort, said Jamal.

- '50 times greater' -

At the Islam Qala border post, more people arrived on Tuesday than the previous week, said an AFP correspondent on the ground.

Families crossed quickly, their faces expressionless, with one or two suitcases holding their meager belongings.

Mohammad Kabir Nazari, 48, had been working for the last 11 months as a security guard in Tehran, and was in the country during the 12-day war last June.

He described the latest strikes as "50 times greater".

"Missiles were coming from all sides, every day," he said. "For Afghans, there was no shelter. The situation was very bad."

Nazari, originally from Ghazni province in eastern Afghanistan, said he had been travelling to Iran for the last 32 years.

Then, the markets were busy around the Persian new year, Nowruz, and for the end of Ramadan but were currently empty, he added.

The slowdown in Iran's economy has consequences for the many Afghan migrant workers: one friend of Nazari told him he had been sacked with other Afghans and forced to return.

- 'Waves and waves' -

Naeemullah Rahimi, 24, was also working as a security guard at a factory in the Tehran suburbs. He said he was forced to shelter from air strikes in the basement.

"When we saw that the situation was very bad, we had to come back to Afghanistan," he said.

Jobs are scarce in his home province of Wardak in central Afghanistan.

"I don't know what to do," said Rahimi. "But if I find a job, I'll work."

The UNHCR's Jamal said "waves and waves" of people have been deported to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan since September 2023. Last year alone, 2.8 million Afghans returned.

"That was the largest such movement in the world," he added.

"If we start to experience similar numbers this year, will Afghanistan really be able to cope? Perhaps, but it needs international support.

"We cannot afford to let Afghanistan fail," he said, warning that forgetting the region will had an even more destabilizing effect in the world.



Iran Can Go up to Two Months without Oil Exports Before Cutting Output, Analysts Say

A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)
A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)
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Iran Can Go up to Two Months without Oil Exports Before Cutting Output, Analysts Say

A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)
A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)

Iran can withstand a complete halt in oil exports of up to two months before being forced to curb production, analysts said, after the US began blocking shipping in and out of the country's ports on April 13.

The blockade could prevent roughly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude from reaching its main buyer China.

Any Iranian production shutdowns would add to more than 12 million bpd of supply already disrupted by the regional war, tightening markets further and ‌lifting oil ‌prices.

With its exports blocked, Iran faces having to ‌divert ⁠crude into onshore storage ⁠tanks. Once those tanks are filled, the OPEC member would be required to curb upstream output.

Consultancy FGE NextantECA estimates Iran has about 90 million barrels of available onshore crude storage capacity, out of total capacity of roughly 122 million barrels.

"Iran can sustain current production of around 3.5 million bpd for roughly two months without exports, extendable to around three months with a modest ⁠500,000 bpd production cut," FGE NextantECA said in a ‌note.

Iranian domestic refineries process about 2 million ‌bpd of oil, they added.

The relevant Iranian authorities were not immediately available for comment.

Energy ‌Aspects assumes significantly lower available onshore storage of about 30 million barrels, ‌based on data from Kayrros.

Under that scenario, Iran could maintain current export levels for about 16 days before storage capacity runs out, based on export levels of 1.8 million bpd.

"The blockade may not have a significant impact on Iranian production in ‌April, but if it continues into May then output would need to be reduced substantially," said Richard ⁠Bronze, co-founder of Energy ⁠Aspects.

He said the consultancy assumes Iran cannot utilize its full nameplate storage capacity, adding that historic data show stocks peaked at 92 million barrels in May 2020, which likely marks a realistic ceiling.

Bronze also said Iran will likely deploy available oil tankers in ports as floating storage, delaying production cuts.

The US military said more vessels were being turned back under the blockade, including the Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry, which is under US sanctions and which was seen heading back through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.

Eight Iran-linked oil tankers have been intercepted since the blockade began on Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported. A US destroyer stopped two tankers attempting to leave Iran's Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday, a US official said.


World Bank Announces Water Security Plan for One Billion People

 A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
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World Bank Announces Water Security Plan for One Billion People

 A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)

The World Bank announced a plan Wednesday that aims to improve secure water access for a billion people within the next four years.

The new "Water Forward" program aims to "expand reliable water services and strengthen systems against droughts and floods."

The Bank said its own funds and technical advice would help improve water supplies to some 400 million people by 2030, with the balance coming from partners.

Regional development banks, OPEC's development fund, and the BRICS-aligned New Development Bank are among institutions that will participate, the World Bank said.

The global lender did not specify how much capital it would commit to the initiative.

Some four billion people -- half the world's population -- face water scarcity, due in part to "unclear policies, weak regulations, and financially unsustainable utilities that have slowed progress and deterred investment," the Bank said.

The global lender said that 14 countries had already voluntarily committed to reform and strengthen their water sectors under the new program.

The focus on governance issues -- not simply physical water infrastructure -- is promising, David Michel, senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said.

"In many countries, the water sector fails to fully deploy the funds already allocated to it."

However, the Bank's initiative "faces a long and difficult road ahead," he warned.

The issue of access to safe drinking water, in particular, has been highlighted during the war in the Middle East, with desalination plants in Iran and across the region damaged in bombardments.

Beyond conflicts and immediate drinking water needs, the World Bank said that better water security was needed to grow the global economy.

"Strong water systems are foundational to healthy economies that can attract private investment and create jobs," the Bank said.


China FM Tells Iran Beijing Supports ‘Momentum of Peace Talks’

Members of the media raise hands to ask questions as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi holds a press conference on the sidelines of the National People's Congress (NPC), in Beijing, China, March 8, 2026. (Reuters)
Members of the media raise hands to ask questions as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi holds a press conference on the sidelines of the National People's Congress (NPC), in Beijing, China, March 8, 2026. (Reuters)
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China FM Tells Iran Beijing Supports ‘Momentum of Peace Talks’

Members of the media raise hands to ask questions as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi holds a press conference on the sidelines of the National People's Congress (NPC), in Beijing, China, March 8, 2026. (Reuters)
Members of the media raise hands to ask questions as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi holds a press conference on the sidelines of the National People's Congress (NPC), in Beijing, China, March 8, 2026. (Reuters)

China's top diplomat told his Iranian counterpart that Beijing "supports maintaining the momentum of the ceasefire and peace talks" in a phone call on Wednesday, as negotiators from Pakistan landed in Tehran to discuss a second round of US-Iran talks.

Peace talks are "in the fundamental interests of the Iranian people and are also the shared hope of regional countries and the international community," Wang Yi said, according to a Chinese foreign ministry statement.

He said China was willing to continue to play a "constructive role" towards peace in the Middle East after a first round of Iran-US talks in Islamabad at the weekend failed to reach an agreement.