Iran’s True Casualty Figures Unknown as Internet Blackout Hampers Monitors

Emergency personnel work at the site of a strike on a residential building, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 23, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Emergency personnel work at the site of a strike on a residential building, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 23, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
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Iran’s True Casualty Figures Unknown as Internet Blackout Hampers Monitors

Emergency personnel work at the site of a strike on a residential building, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 23, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Emergency personnel work at the site of a strike on a residential building, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 23, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Iran has not updated its official death toll figures for weeks, while human rights groups outside the country are struggling with chronic communication problems, meaning the number of people killed during the war remains largely unknown.

The last time Iran's health ministry gave a full update about casualties was on March 8, the ninth day of the conflict, when it said around 1,200 civilians had been killed in US and Israeli airstrikes across the country.

Overseas human rights groups have long been considered one of the most reliable sources of information about life inside the heavily censored country.

But with Iran's connections to the global internet cut off and phone lines down, they are struggling to reach their networks of contacts who are their eyes and ears on the ground.

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), which played an important role corroborating deaths during anti-government protests in January, estimates the civilian death toll at 1,407 people, including 214 children.

"I would say it's an absolute, absolute minimum, and that's simply because we don't have the capacity to be everywhere at one time, understanding the full extent of what's happening," HRANA deputy director Skylar Thompson told AFP.

"With the scale and the speed at which places are being targeted across the country, it's impossible to document it at the same pace," she added.

The Iranian Red Crescent is not providing casualty estimates, but its latest figures indicate 61,555 homes, 19,000 businesses, 275 medical centers, and nearly 500 schools have been damaged.

AFP journalists have been able to confirm that many civilian buildings in Tehran have been damaged, including apartment blocks caught in the blast wave of nearby missile or bomb strikes, but not beyond the city.

Reporters are unable to travel around the country without official authorization.

- Connection problems -

Distrust of Iran's official figures is high among human rights groups, particularly after the bloody crackdown on anti-government protests in January.

Although Iran acknowledged around 3,000 deaths, mostly among security forces, researchers and campaigners outside Iran estimated that anywhere from 7,000 to 35,000 people were killed in the indiscriminate shooting.

"The Islamic republic has a history of not publishing or not collecting data," Awyar Shekhi from the Norway-based human rights group Hengaw told AFP.

The problem for Hengaw and others seeking to provide a credible alternative to the incomplete official data has been the almost-total shutdown of Iran's internet connections to the outside world since the start of the war on February 28.

"The connection is worse than it ever was before, so it's really difficult to get accurate data of how many people have been killed, and the information we get is so little," Shekhi added.

Both she and Thompson stressed that Iranian authorities have been threatening and arresting people who have illegally accessed the global internet to send information abroad, sometimes accusing them of spying.

Making telephone calls to Iran from abroad is also largely impossible.

- 'Focus on the civilian harm' -

The biggest loss of life for civilians in the war so far was the airstrike on an elementary school in Minab on the first day of the war that killed at least 165 people, according to an official toll.

A US Tomahawk cruise missile hit the school because of a targeting mistake, according to the preliminary findings of a US military investigation reported by The New York Times.

Hengaw also documented an airstrike on a flour factory in the city of western Naqadeh on March 7 that killed 11 workers and injured another 21.

"I believe that the US and Israel are using a quite aggressive interpretation of what is a military target," Thompson from HRANA added.

Unlike in January, during the anti-government protests, she said there had so far been relatively little attention in the Western media on the toll of ordinary Iranians.

"There's such a focus on the geopolitics of it all, I think it's really important to have a focus on the civilian harm," she added.

Elsewhere in the region, Lebanon's health ministry said Israeli strikes had killed 1,029 people in the country.



Iran Conflict May Have Motivated Trump Dinner Shooting Suspect, US Intelligence Report Finds

This courtroom sketch depicts Cole Tomas Allen, center, listening as his attorney Eugene Ohm, left, speaks to US Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui, Monday, May 4, 2026, in Washington, as Tony Towns, the acting general counsel for the District of Columbia Department of Corrections, listens at right. (Dana Verkouteren via AP)
This courtroom sketch depicts Cole Tomas Allen, center, listening as his attorney Eugene Ohm, left, speaks to US Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui, Monday, May 4, 2026, in Washington, as Tony Towns, the acting general counsel for the District of Columbia Department of Corrections, listens at right. (Dana Verkouteren via AP)
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Iran Conflict May Have Motivated Trump Dinner Shooting Suspect, US Intelligence Report Finds

This courtroom sketch depicts Cole Tomas Allen, center, listening as his attorney Eugene Ohm, left, speaks to US Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui, Monday, May 4, 2026, in Washington, as Tony Towns, the acting general counsel for the District of Columbia Department of Corrections, listens at right. (Dana Verkouteren via AP)
This courtroom sketch depicts Cole Tomas Allen, center, listening as his attorney Eugene Ohm, left, speaks to US Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui, Monday, May 4, 2026, in Washington, as Tony Towns, the acting general counsel for the District of Columbia Department of Corrections, listens at right. (Dana Verkouteren via AP)

The US Department of Homeland Security identified the US-Israeli war with Iran as a potential motive for the man accused of attempting to assassinate President Donald Trump and senior members of his administration at a White House reporters' gala last month, according to an intelligence report sent to state and local law enforcement nationwide and other federal agencies.

The report, a preliminary assessment by the Department of Homeland Security's Office of Intelligence and Analysis dated April 27, assessed that the suspect Cole Allen had "multiple social and political grievances."

It concluded that the Iran conflict "may have contributed to his decision to conduct the attack," citing social media posts from Allen that criticized US actions in the war.

The assessment sheds new light on the US government's search for a motive in the foiled attack on the White House Correspondents' Dinner on April 25. Its ‌conclusions, while preliminary, offer ‌the most definitive evidence to date that the Iran conflict, which has killed ‌thousands ⁠in the Middle ⁠East and rattled the global economy, could have been a trigger.

The report, marked as a "Critical Incident Note," was obtained through open records requests by the transparency nonprofit Property of the People and shared with Reuters.

A DHS spokesperson declined to comment on the contents of the intelligence assessment.

"These reports notify our partners of the latest available information following significant incidents that have impacts to homeland security," the spokesperson said.

The FBI declined to comment and the US Justice Department did not respond to requests for comment.

On Tuesday, the US Justice Department added a charge of assault on a federal officer, accusing Allen of ⁠firing at a US Secret Service agent at a security checkpoint, in addition to attempted ‌assassination, discharge of a firearm during a crime of violence, and ‌illegal transportation of a firearm and ammunition across state lines. He has not yet entered a plea.

FBI EXAMINES SOCIAL MEDIA

US officials ‌have so far said little about Allen's alleged motivation, pointing only to an email Allen sent to ‌relatives on the night of the attack. The message, which officials have called a manifesto, expressed anger at the administration and referred to his desire to target the "traitor" giving a speech, without mentioning Trump by name.

In court documents, prosecutors have alleged that Allen "disagreed" with Trump politically and "wanted to 'fight back' against government policies and decisions that he found morally objectionable."

The FBI has been carrying out a ‌detailed examination of Allen's social media activity and digital footprint in searching for a motive for the attack, a senior law enforcement official told Reuters, speaking on the ⁠condition of anonymity.

"It's being closely ⁠looked at," the official told Reuters.

The examination includes a review of posts on a Bluesky social media account linked to Allen that posted and shared a range of anti-Trump messages in the weeks leading up to the attack. The posts include criticism of the US actions in Iran but also broadsides against the Trump administration on immigration enforcement, Elon Musk, and Russia's war in Ukraine.

The account shared a post calling for Trump to be impeached over his April 7 threat to destroy Iranian civilization, which came hours before Trump agreed to a ceasefire. It also shared criticism of reporters who planned to attend the press dinner.

The focus on Allen's online activity is in part to stave off conspiracy theories about the motive and online activity of the suspected shooter, the official said, adding that speculation about the online activity of the man who fired at Trump during a 2024 campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, had sparked widely spread conspiracy theories.


Canarians Worry Arrival of Hantavirus Cruise Ship Will Bring Repeat of Covid Quarantines

This aerial view shows health personnel boarding the cruise ship MV Hondius, while stationary off the port of Praia, the capital of Cape Verde, on May 6, 2026. (AFP)
This aerial view shows health personnel boarding the cruise ship MV Hondius, while stationary off the port of Praia, the capital of Cape Verde, on May 6, 2026. (AFP)
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Canarians Worry Arrival of Hantavirus Cruise Ship Will Bring Repeat of Covid Quarantines

This aerial view shows health personnel boarding the cruise ship MV Hondius, while stationary off the port of Praia, the capital of Cape Verde, on May 6, 2026. (AFP)
This aerial view shows health personnel boarding the cruise ship MV Hondius, while stationary off the port of Praia, the capital of Cape Verde, on May 6, 2026. (AFP)

The arrival this weekend of a cruise ship hit by an outbreak of hantavirus is reviving memories for residents of Spain's Canary Islands of the quarantines they experienced during the Covid pandemic.

The MV Hondius, carrying 150 people, is expected to reach Tenerife on Saturday, where it will dock after Spain agreed to requests from the World Health Organization to receive it despite protests from the local government.

The archipelago was one of the first places in Europe to undergo quarantines during the early days of the pandemic. More than 700 holidaymakers were stranded in a hotel in Tenerife for 14 days in February 2020 after ‌authorities cloistered ‌the compound to prevent the spread of the virus, weeks before ‌it propagated ⁠to the rest ⁠of Europe.

Other epidemics, such as an outbreak of Ebola in 2014, have also affected the islands, whose economy relies heavily on tourism. The archipelago has also complained that it has had to bear the brunt of a migration crisis from Western Africa.

"We are a community that’s already quite flexible when it comes to helping others and being accommodating to people, but I think this is excessive," said local resident Margarita Maria, 62. "People are scared, people are worried. Spain is a ⁠huge country with plenty of ports where the cruise ship could ‌go."

The World Health Organization says the risk to ‌the public remains low and the variant detected among passengers can spread between humans only through close, prolonged ‌contact.

Nevertheless, the news was stirring fears that hospitals and health centers on Tenerife would ‌have to be locked down, said a nurse who asked not to be identified.

"It will be just like Covid ... People are worried about their children, elderly relatives and the vulnerable," the nurse said, adding that the islands' quarantine protocol for viruses, if one was declared, would affect schools and healthcare centers.

All the ‌passengers left on board the ship were not presenting symptoms of the disease and would be repatriated to their countries, while the ⁠14 Spaniards on board ⁠would be flown to a hospital in Madrid to quarantine, Spanish Health Minister Monica Garcia said on Wednesday.

Some residents complained that the Canaries' status as a safe destination meant it always had to shoulder responsibilities other tourist markets shirk.

"Tourist destinations competing with the Canary Islands in the international market have not been taken into account, and the decision has been made to bring the cruise ship to the Canary Islands – there must be a reason for that," said Jorge Marichal, president of Tenerife's hotels association, Ashotel.

Madrid has failed to communicate what was expected of the archipelago, which was making it difficult to assuage the tourism industry, said the regional government's tourism minister, Lope Afonso.

Some Canarians worried it could have an impact on Pope Leo's scheduled visit to the Canaries in June.

"Can you imagine the Pope with hantavirus? That's a headline we don't want," local comedian Omayra Cazorla said on Instagram.


Japan Fires Missile in Joint Drill with US and Allies in Northern Philippines, Facing South China Sea

US and Philippine troops in a foxhole participate in counter-landing live fire exercises during Balikatan, the annual joint military exercises between the US and the Philippines, at Long Point Beach, Brgy. Aporawan, Aborlan, Palawan, Philippines, April 27, 2026. REUTERS/Eloisa Lopez Purchase Licensing Rights
US and Philippine troops in a foxhole participate in counter-landing live fire exercises during Balikatan, the annual joint military exercises between the US and the Philippines, at Long Point Beach, Brgy. Aporawan, Aborlan, Palawan, Philippines, April 27, 2026. REUTERS/Eloisa Lopez Purchase Licensing Rights
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Japan Fires Missile in Joint Drill with US and Allies in Northern Philippines, Facing South China Sea

US and Philippine troops in a foxhole participate in counter-landing live fire exercises during Balikatan, the annual joint military exercises between the US and the Philippines, at Long Point Beach, Brgy. Aporawan, Aborlan, Palawan, Philippines, April 27, 2026. REUTERS/Eloisa Lopez Purchase Licensing Rights
US and Philippine troops in a foxhole participate in counter-landing live fire exercises during Balikatan, the annual joint military exercises between the US and the Philippines, at Long Point Beach, Brgy. Aporawan, Aborlan, Palawan, Philippines, April 27, 2026. REUTERS/Eloisa Lopez Purchase Licensing Rights

Japan's Self-Defense Forces fired a Type 88 anti-ship missile during a joint maritime exercise with US, Australian, and Philippine forces on Wednesday, hitting a decommissioned Philippine Navy ship in waters facing the disputed South China Sea.

The drill took place as Manila and Tokyo began talks on a potential defense equipment transfer, made possible by Japan's decision to scrap restrictions on military exports, said Reuters.

Discussions include the possible early transfer of Abukuma class ‌destroyers and TC-90 ‌aircraft to the Philippines, Japan's Defense Minister Shinjiro ‌Koizumi ⁠said.

Philippine Defense Secretary ⁠Gilberto Teodoro and Koizumi witnessed the live missile firing on the ground, while Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. watched the exercise from military headquarters in Manila via a live video feed, the president's office said.

"The exercise showcased coordinated maritime strike operations among allied forces and highlighted the AFP's growing capability to operate alongside international partners in promoting regional security and freedom of ⁠navigation," it said in a statement.

The Philippine military said ‌two Type 88 volleys were fired, hitting ‌the BRP Quezon within six minutes of the launch. The strike took ‌place about 75 km (46.6 miles) off the coast of Paoay in the ‌northern Philippines, which faces the South China Sea.

The Philippine Department of National Defense said Japan's Type 88 missile system was "designed to defend coastal areas and deter maritime threats."

"I'm very, very proud and happy that we were able to ‌pull this off for the first time and it will only get larger in scope with more partners," ⁠Teodoro said.

The ⁠live-fire drill was part of the annual war games held by Manila and Washington, known as "Balikatan", or "shoulder-to-shoulder".

Japan, together with Canada, Australia, France and New Zealand, are joining Balikatan as active participants for the first time, highlighting Manila's widening network of security partnerships.

On May 2, Filipino and American troops also deployed the anti-ship missile NMESIS in Batanes province, near Taiwan, as tensions simmer over the self-governed island that China views as its own territory.

More than 17,000 troops are taking part in this year's exercises, including around 1,400 from defense treaty ally Japan and 10,000 from the United States, even though Washington remains heavily engaged in the Middle East.

Beijing routinely criticizes Manila's joint military exercises with allies, saying they heighten regional tensions.