Siege of Balad Base May Prelude ‘Doomsday’ Scenario in Iraq

A US military handout image shows the Balad Air Base in Iraq in 2011.
A US military handout image shows the Balad Air Base in Iraq in 2011.
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Siege of Balad Base May Prelude ‘Doomsday’ Scenario in Iraq

A US military handout image shows the Balad Air Base in Iraq in 2011.
A US military handout image shows the Balad Air Base in Iraq in 2011.

An American contractor responsible for operating Iraq’s F-16 fighter jets has withdrawn its staff from an Iraqi air base after attacks by Iran-aligned factions, leaving Baghdad racing to find replacements before its most advanced aircraft risks becoming “scrap,” officials and sources said.

The attacks cap years of what sources describe as “infiltration and espionage attempts” targeting US technology acquired by Iraq about a decade ago, culminating in what they called a “doomsday scenario” to seize Iraqi military assets.

The Iraqi government had tried to persuade staff from V2X to remain at Balad Air Base despite repeated strikes. A senior Iraqi official said that although the attacks caused no major damage, “the company’s employees insisted on leaving for their own safety.”

According to a foreign contractor, security personnel and employees, the evacuation followed an intense wave of drone attacks and was carried out during a temporary truce to secure what one source described as a “high-risk flight.”

Since the outbreak of war involving the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Balad Air Base has come under attack from three directions, most of which failed to cause significant damage, sources said.

During the first term of President Donald Trump, Iran-aligned groups forced a previous American contractor to leave the same base after the US strike that killed Qassem Soleimani in January 2020.

Dozens of staff from Sallyport were reported to have departed after deadly attacks.

The pattern now appears to be repeating with V2X during Trump’s second term, but in a broader regional war.

Drone attacks strain operations

The first attack in the current escalation occurred on March 2, the third day of the war. Subsequent strikes followed a pattern, often between midnight and early dawn, sometimes involving paired drones.

Local residents filmed smoke rising near the base. A nearby farmer told Asharq Al-Awsat that most drones fell within or just outside the perimeter, close to the security fence.

A security source said around 10 attacks were recorded in the first month of the war, causing no casualties or damage, including to the F-16 fleet.

But the attacks disrupted daily operations. “We had to stay in fortified rooms for hours,” one contractor said, adding that foreign staff feared a repeat of the 2012 US consulate attack in Libya.

Iraqi staff downplayed the threat, saying operations continued as normal.

Evacuation under truce

Baghdad’s efforts to retain the American team failed. The official said the logistical support program for the F-16s was essential to keeping Iraq’s fighter squadron operational, but the staff chose to leave.

Sources said dozens of foreign personnel were evacuated overnight aboard a military C-130 aircraft to a neighboring country, in coordination with the US military. The operation was timed with a brief truce in the final week of March.

Some advisers had already withdrawn in late February, citing early warnings of rising risks.

V2X did not respond to requests for comment. A New York Stock Exchange filing shows its contract was renewed in June 2025 with an initial value of $118 million.

The base now lacks a specialized team to operate Iraq’s F-16s, and the government lacks the funds to maintain them, the Iraqi official said.

Aircraft at risk

Retired Colonel Salam Asaad said the aircraft would likely become inoperable without American expertise. “Local crews lack the experience to manage such a strategic system,” he said.

He added that the jets delivered to Iraq had been modified, with the United States removing some systems and not equipping them with long-range missiles.

Even during the war against ISIS, Iraqi F-16s relied on coalition aircraft to strike targets, he said.

Although the US Central Command has pointed to improved Iraqi self-sufficiency in recent years, the combination of technical dependence and sustained attacks has exposed vulnerabilities.

The attacks on Balad are part of a broader campaign since early March targeting US and Iraqi facilities. A source close to armed factions said the initial goal was to pressure US forces, but “when they withdrew, the targets expanded.”

The source said Iran’s Revolutionary Guards sought to isolate adversaries from the F-16 fleet and prevent its use during the conflict.

A former Iraqi official involved in procurement said Iran-aligned groups had long shown a strong interest in the aircraft, suggesting Tehran was uneasy with Iraq possessing such capabilities because it would view it as a threat.

‘Doomsday scenario’

An Iraqi official said a prolonged intelligence struggle had taken place between the US and Iranian sides over access to the aircraft’s systems, with armed groups repeatedly attempting to gather sensitive information.

Figures within Iraq’s ruling pro-Iran Coordination Framework warned of a potential “coup against what remains of the state.”

One figure said that after the war, factions could move toward a “doomsday scenario,” consolidating control over state military assets with political backing and institutional presence.

On March 30, head of the IRGC’s Quds Force Esmail Qaani said the “resistance’s joint operations room” had contributed to shaping a new regional order.

A former Iraqi official said earlier attempts by armed groups to penetrate military infrastructure had failed, but could now be seen as “a long rehearsal,” with Iraq being exposed to the Iranians during the war.



‘Life and Hope’: Lebanon Hospital Resilient After Israeli Attack

02 June 2026, Lebanon, Tyre: Debris and extensive damage are pictured inside the Jabal Amel Hospital in Tyre after Monday's Israeli strike. (dpa)
02 June 2026, Lebanon, Tyre: Debris and extensive damage are pictured inside the Jabal Amel Hospital in Tyre after Monday's Israeli strike. (dpa)
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‘Life and Hope’: Lebanon Hospital Resilient After Israeli Attack

02 June 2026, Lebanon, Tyre: Debris and extensive damage are pictured inside the Jabal Amel Hospital in Tyre after Monday's Israeli strike. (dpa)
02 June 2026, Lebanon, Tyre: Debris and extensive damage are pictured inside the Jabal Amel Hospital in Tyre after Monday's Israeli strike. (dpa)

In a south Lebanon hospital heavily damaged by deadly Israeli strikes nearby, Dr. Nasser al-Masri held a new-born baby, calling him "a message of life and hope" despite the war.

Israeli strikes near the Jabal Amel hospital in Tyre on Monday killed four people and wounded 127, including four doctors, 27 nurses, and eight administrative employees, Lebanon's health ministry said.

They also caused "severe and extensive damage" to the facility, it added.

"Despite everything that happened yesterday, there was a scheduled delivery today... (and) the mother insisted on delivering at the hospital," Masri said.

"This baby was born today, he's just a few minutes old... He brought us a message of life and a message of hope for the future."

Glass was scattered across some hospital rooms on Tuesday, while dust and debris covered beds and tables.

Medication was strewn on corridor floors, and staff tried to work as others cleaned up around them.

"We're taking in any patient that comes to us," Masri said, adding that "even two hours after the raids, we were able to work normally, and the administration is determined to stay and work".

Around the hospital, the devastation was stark: a nearby building had been levelled, others were severely damaged and debris was scattered round near parked ambulances.

The roof of the hospital's parking collapsed, crushing several vehicles. Bulldozers worked to clear away the rubble.

- 'Steadfast' -

Inspecting the damage, Mohammad Derbaj, head of the hospital's maintenance department, said that "the civilian buildings were not the intended target, but rather Jabal Amel was targeted in order to put it out of service, but we are steadfast".

"What happened has increased our determination and strength," he added, as the hospital administration "made a decision yesterday that the hospital will return... We will work day and night to restore the hospital to what it was".

Israeli strikes have not spared Lebanese hospitals since the start of the latest Israel-Hezbollah war on March 2.

The health ministry says 17 hospitals have been damaged, with three forced to close, and 128 rescuers and medical personnel have been killed.

The Lebanese Italian hospital in Tyre was also damaged by an Israeli attack in April.

A strike last month near the city's Hiram hospital wounded 13 staff and damaged it, according to the ministry.

At Jabal Amel hospital on Tuesday, Hussein Qassir, head of the intensive care unit, told AFP they transferred patients from one ICU ward after it sustained significant damage in the airstrikes.

"We were expecting a strike near or adjacent to the hospital... but I didn't expect that the intensive care unit would be this damaged (but) the situation could have been so much worse.

"Despite this, we continue... it is our duty."

- 'Criminality' -

Abdinasir Abubakar, World Health Organization Representative to Lebanon, said on Tuesday that "two out of three hospitals" in the Tyre district, Jabal Amel and Hiram, "are damaged although continuing to function, and the third hospital is overwhelmed as it deals with an influx of injured patients".

The historic city in southern Lebanon, which still hosts thousands of displaced people from nearby areas, has been subject to repeated Israeli strikes that have continued despite an April 17 ceasefire agreement that has not been respected by either Israel or Hezbollah.

Israel's military has repeatedly warned residents of Tyre and its surroundings to evacuate in preparation for what it said are operations against Hezbollah.

Staffer Khalil Mustapha, displaced from the border town of Aitaroun, took shelter in the hospital after losing his home.

"I no longer have a home. Israel destroyed it and I came to the hospital. I never expected their level of criminality would reach this point," he said.

Zainab Fakih, who works in the laboratory, was sitting with her colleagues when the attack came.

"We were terrified... We opened the doors and rubble rained down on us, but luckily no one was hurt," she said.

"We didn't think they would bomb the area around the hospital. But we come here because this is our job, even though our families object", fearing for their safety.


Iran War Hands Syria Windfall as Airlines Reroute over Its Airspace

A Jazeera Airways Airbus A320neo takes off from Damascus International Airport, as regional airlines resume their flights to Syria after a hiatus because of the war, in Damascus, Syria, May 31, 2026. Syria's General Authority of Civil Aviation/Handout via REUTERS
A Jazeera Airways Airbus A320neo takes off from Damascus International Airport, as regional airlines resume their flights to Syria after a hiatus because of the war, in Damascus, Syria, May 31, 2026. Syria's General Authority of Civil Aviation/Handout via REUTERS
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Iran War Hands Syria Windfall as Airlines Reroute over Its Airspace

A Jazeera Airways Airbus A320neo takes off from Damascus International Airport, as regional airlines resume their flights to Syria after a hiatus because of the war, in Damascus, Syria, May 31, 2026. Syria's General Authority of Civil Aviation/Handout via REUTERS
A Jazeera Airways Airbus A320neo takes off from Damascus International Airport, as regional airlines resume their flights to Syria after a hiatus because of the war, in Damascus, Syria, May 31, 2026. Syria's General Authority of Civil Aviation/Handout via REUTERS

Syria recorded nearly 12,000 aircraft transits in May as regional airlines rerouted around airspace disrupted by conflict in the Middle East and into skies that most carriers had avoided for more than a decade.

Figures from Syria's General Authority for Civil Aviation show 11,801 flights crossed Syrian airspace, more than double the 4,267 recorded in February, the last full month before the Iran war disrupted regional aviation. Overflights in May were about 375% higher than in the same month last year.

Syria's airspace was a no-go zone throughout the 14-year civil war that ended with the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad in late 2024.

The turnaround is potentially lucrative for Syria, which increased the fees it charges airlines early this year.

Based on a flat fee of $499 per flight introduced by Syria's new government, last month's traffic could ‌have generated as much ‌as $5.9 million in overflight revenue, according to Reuters calculations.

The General Authority for Civil ‌Aviation ⁠declined to comment on ⁠revenue potential and the new fees.

Airlines were forced to reassess Syria after US and Israeli airstrikes began the Iran war on February 28 the airspace over Iraq and the Gulf that airlines previously relied upon was shut during March.

A ceasefire led to the reopening of airspace in April, but the majority of flights to Europe from Dubai and Doha - two of the world's busiest aviation hubs - have since crossed central Syria rather than Iraq, according to flight-tracking services Flightradar24 and AirNav.

Flying over Syria cuts journey times and fuel costs as airlines try to lessen the impact of the surge in international oil ⁠prices caused by the disruption linked to the Iran war.

SYRIA IS STILL HIGH RISK

Syria ‌upgraded infrastructure at Damascus International Airport after receiving advanced radar and ‌navigation systems from Türkiye late last year, according to Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu.

Even so, OPSGroup, an aviation risk monitoring advisory body, said ‌that airspace over Syria is still considered risky and is operating with "procedural control only" - the most basic level ‌of air traffic control.

Traffic remains less than half the levels before Syria's war, according to aviation officials, and the increase in traffic is largely limited to Gulf carriers as Europe's aviation safety agency still recommends airlines avoid flying over the country and region due to the Iran conflict.

Asian and North American carriers are also largely avoiding Middle Eastern airspace.

Syrian authorities, however, are upbeat.

"The increase ‌in overflight traffic reflects the beginning of a real shift in how airlines view Syrian airspace, as a viable and dependable route once again within the regional ⁠air traffic network," General Authority ⁠for Civil Aviation head Omar al-Hosari told Reuters.

He said GACA had updated air routes, reassessed traffic patterns and strengthened navigation, surveillance and air traffic control systems and adopted risk-based safety assessments in line with standards set by the International Civil Aviation Organization.

As part of an overhaul of the payment systems for overflights, GACA has outsourced the collection of charges to Syrian handling agents, as well as OPSGroup and International Flight Planning Solutions, a private Lebanese flight-planning firm.

Syria's flat fee of $499 per flight - divided between a $430 charge and a $69 communication fee - is regardless of aircraft type, size or operation type, according to a GACA document reviewed by Reuters and FAS Aero, one of the handling agents contracted by the government. Handling agents often add further fees on top.

Under Assad, Syria charged $75 for smaller aircraft to fly over the country, or about $1 to 1.25 per metric ton for larger planes, according to OPSGroup and a Syrian aviation official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The GACA document also shows a 50% reduction in levies for domestic flights and aircraft registered in Syria, and full exemptions for aircraft belonging to heads of states, official delegations, and search and rescue operations.


Iran Eyes Limited US Deal to Relieve Economic Strain and Buy Time

 A drone view shows vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 1, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view shows vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 1, 2026. (Reuters)
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Iran Eyes Limited US Deal to Relieve Economic Strain and Buy Time

 A drone view shows vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 1, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view shows vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 1, 2026. (Reuters)

Iran is pushing for a limited interim agreement with the United States in a bid to ease mounting economic pressure and stabilize the situation at home, while avoiding major concessions on its nuclear program, according to sources and analysts.

The approach reflects a familiar playbook for the Iranian regime: absorb pressure, avoid irreversible compromises and keep negotiations alive without shifting core positions, three Iranian sources close to decision-makers said, according to Reuters.

But the latest push is also driven by more immediate concerns. Officials see a narrow deal as a way to buy time, unlock financial relief and contain rising domestic risks over a deteriorating economy without addressing the most contentious issues.

The diplomatic maneuvering follows weeks of escalation after US-Israeli strikes in late February spiraled into a broader regional conflict. Iranian attacks across the Gulf heightened fears over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

Three months on, and ‌despite a fragile ‌ceasefire in early April, the conflict has hardened into a stalemate. A US blockade on ‌Iranian ⁠ports and Tehran's ⁠grip on the Strait have sustained mutual pressure, driving up economic costs while leaving the risk of renewed fighting unresolved.

Against that backdrop, both sides have lowered expectations of a comprehensive settlement. Instead, they are exploring what officials describe as a temporary memorandum — effectively an interim deal — aimed at preventing a return to open conflict, while deferring core disputes over Iran's nuclear activities.

TEHRAN SEEKS BREATHING SPACE

For Tehran, such an arrangement is primarily a means of converting military and economic pressure into liquidity, breathing space and de-escalation, without curbing sensitive nuclear work.

Iran is seeking an end to hostilities across all fronts, including Lebanon, access to billions of dollars in oil revenues, waivers on crude ⁠exports, a lifting of the US port blockade and continued leverage over the strait, ‌while postponing decisions on the most contentious issues.

The framework would center on temporary ‌easing and phased access through the waterway, leaving unresolved questions over enrichment capacity and Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, including material enriched to ‌60%.

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said Tehran's calculation is shaped less by battlefield ‌risks than by economic pressure and uncertainty.

"Iranian leaders understand that time is not necessarily on their side... their calculation appears to be that dialogue, even limited dialogue, is preferable to entering an open-ended period of economic attrition and uncertainty that could gradually weaken its ability to govern at home and project influence abroad."

TEHRAN FEARS PROTEST REVIVAL

Much rests on the success of negotiations. President Donald Trump is under pressure to reopen ‌the Strait of Hormuz and curb US fuel prices, while fending off criticism from Iran hawks in his own Republican party over any concessions to Tehran.

Iran's leadership also ⁠faces domestic pressures. Years of sanctions, ⁠economic mismanagement and conflict have fueled inflation, currency depreciation and a sharp decline in living standards.

Short-term financial inflows are therefore crucial to Tehran's interest in a preliminary deal, the sources said, as they could keep the economy running, ease immediate pressures and stave off a resurgence of unrest.

In January, Iran's clerical establishment and the Revolutionary Guards killed thousands while suppressing nationwide protests sparked by economic grievances.

Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, said a memorandum could also address mounting concerns about the long-term resilience of the system.

"By ending the conflict, reducing economic strain, removing US military pressure around Iran, and creating space for reconstruction, an MoU could help prevent a gradual erosion of state capacity and governance," Azizi said.

STRAIT REMAINS IRAN'S LEVERAGE

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to Iran's leverage. Within the clerical establishment, it is increasingly seen less as a bargaining chip than as a durable strategic asset.

Any arrangement that restores shipping while preserving that leverage would leave Tehran's influence over the chokepoint intact, the sources said, allowing flows to resume while stability remains tied to political negotiation.

One source said a limited deal would effectively restore prewar conditions without forcing Iran to yield to Washington’s demands, adding: "With the start of the war, Trump gave Iran the gift of control over the Strait."