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Dollar Falls for Second Day as Middle East Ceasefire Expectations Rise

US dollar bills (Reuters)
US dollar bills (Reuters)
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Dollar Falls for Second Day as Middle East Ceasefire Expectations Rise

US dollar bills (Reuters)
US dollar bills (Reuters)

The dollar dropped for a second day on Wednesday as expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict grew after the US signalled that an end to the war could be near, even though markets remained on edge on fears of escalation.

The White House said US President Donald Trump would address the nation "to provide an important update on Iran" at 9 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday).

Trump said on Tuesday the US could end its military campaign against Iran within two to three weeks, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News Washington could see the "finish line" in the Iran war, according to Reuters.

Expectations that a ceasefire could be near have reversed some of the most popular trades since the war began in late February.

The yen recovered from this year's low of 160.46 per dollar, moving back through the psychologically important 160 level that had fanned concerns about intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro hit its highest level in a week.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 0.3% at 99.456, slipping to a one-week low after a 0.65% fall on Tuesday.

"Markets are increasingly buying into the notion of de-escalation in the Middle East overall," said Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, FX analyst at Danske Bank.

"Markets are optimistic. We're seeing some relief with rates going lower, equities going higher and the price action in euro-dollar reflects that quite well."

The euro edged up 0.5% versus the dollar to $1.1603, after rising 0.8% on Tuesday.

The Japanese yen was up 0.1% at 158.46 per dollar. Sterling strengthened 0.7% to $1.3313.

At the same time, there were still signs of escalation in the conflict.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the next few days in the war against Iran would be decisive and warned Tehran that the conflict would intensify if it did not make a deal.

The dollar should remain supported by the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, while the yen is being underpinned by rising expectations of a Bank of Japan hike in April, said Sho Suzuki, market analyst at Matsui Securities.

"We may see a tug-of-war between dollar strength and yen strength, with USD/JPY trading sideways in the upper 150s," he said.

The Australian dollar strengthened 0.7% to $0.6946. New Zealand's kiwi strengthened 0.4% to $0.5770.

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Business

Egypt Says Close to Issuing $500 Million Japan Samurai Bond

A minibus moves along a main road underneath new Cairo Monorail track as a train moves above in the Fifth Settlement, a neighborhood of the New Cairo suburb of Cairo, on May 22, 2026. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)
A minibus moves along a main road underneath new Cairo Monorail track as a train moves above in the Fifth Settlement, a neighborhood of the New Cairo suburb of Cairo, on May 22, 2026. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)
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Egypt Says Close to Issuing $500 Million Japan Samurai Bond

A minibus moves along a main road underneath new Cairo Monorail track as a train moves above in the Fifth Settlement, a neighborhood of the New Cairo suburb of Cairo, on May 22, 2026. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)
A minibus moves along a main road underneath new Cairo Monorail track as a train moves above in the Fifth Settlement, a neighborhood of the New Cairo suburb of Cairo, on May 22, 2026. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)

Egypt is finalizing plans for its first yen-denominated bond sale in three years, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told Reuters on a trip to Japan on Thursday.

The African Development Bank said in December it would partially guarantee Cairo's planned $500 million-equivalent Samurai bonds on the Japanese markets this year.

"We are completing the final ⁠steps," Abdelatty said ⁠on the sidelines of an event in Tokyo, adding that he had been promoting the sale and other investment opportunities while in Japan.

"We had extensive discussions ⁠with our Japanese friends on monetary, fiscal, financial support, especially with regard to budget support and samurai bonds as well."

Egypt's economy has been boosted in recent years by major real estate investments and an $8 billion IMF loan, though the Iran war is piling pressure ⁠on ⁠its finances.

The bond sale would be Egypt's third in the currency, following issuances in 2022 and 2023.

"It will be very important, despite the fact that we've been hit hard with implications of the (Iran) war," Abdelatty said.

Business

Oil Falls as Lebanon and Israel Agree on a Ceasefire

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an offshore oil platform in Guanabara Bay in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, March 18, 2026. REUTERS/Pilar Olivares/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an offshore oil platform in Guanabara Bay in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, March 18, 2026. REUTERS/Pilar Olivares/File Photo
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Oil Falls as Lebanon and Israel Agree on a Ceasefire

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an offshore oil platform in Guanabara Bay in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, March 18, 2026. REUTERS/Pilar Olivares/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an offshore oil platform in Guanabara Bay in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, March 18, 2026. REUTERS/Pilar Olivares/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Thursday as a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon boosted hopes for a broader agreement to end the US-Israeli war with Iran that could lead to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent futures were down 87 cents, or 0.89%, at $96.92 a barrel by 0458 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 78 cents, or 0.81%, to $95.24, paring gains from earlier in the week, said Reuters.

Both Brent and WTI rose about 2% on Wednesday after renewed Middle East hostilities including Iranian attacks on Kuwait ‌and US military strikes ‌near the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel and Lebanon ‌said ⁠late on Wednesday ⁠they had agreed to implement a ceasefire, raising hopes for a deal between Washington and Tehran, which has conditioned any agreement in part on an end to fighting between Israel and Lebanon.

US President Donald Trump suggested on Wednesday that there could be progress in negotiations with Iran as soon as this weekend.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday said Tehran's ⁠contacts with Washington have not been cut ‌off, but no progress has been made ‌in the negotiations, adding both sides were studying the texts that were exchanged.

In ‌the US, the Republican-led House approved a resolution on Wednesday to ‌block Trump from continuing the war against Iran. To take effect, the resolution would need Senate approval and two-thirds majorities in both chambers to override an almost certain Trump veto.

Meanwhile, US crude stockpiles fell by 8 million barrels to ‌433.7 million barrels in the week ended May 29, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. ⁠That was a ⁠much bigger drop than the 4-million-barrel draw analysts had expected in a Reuters poll.

The International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday that global oil inventories could hit critical levels ahead of peak summer demand if stock draws continue at their current pace, despite Chinese crude imports falling by 6 million barrels a day in May compared to March.

“Inventories have provided a cushion for the oil market. However, even if we see an imminent restart of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the recovery will be slow and gradual,” a note from ING said.

“This suggests inventories are likely to continue to tighten into the third quarter, leaving upside risk to prices.”

Business

IMF Praises Saudi Economy’s Resilience

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
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IMF Praises Saudi Economy’s Resilience

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) affirmed that the Saudi economy has demonstrated high resilience in the face of regional geopolitical tensions that have obstructed navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Fund praised the Kingdom's ability to contain the fallout from the navigation disruption through a swift logistical response, which involved redirecting oil shipments towards the East-West pipeline and Red Sea ports, leveraging the legacy of its Vision 2030 structural reforms.

“The Saudi economy is demonstrating agility and resilience, supported by robust and diversified infrastructure and the authorities’ concerted efforts to redirect shipments and ease logistical bottlenecks,” mission head Azim Sadikov said on Wednesday in the IMF's latest Article IV mission report following a visit to the Kingdom from April 28 to May 13.

“A prompt rerouting of oil through the East-West pipeline and Red Sea ports, combined with Aramco’s overseas inventories, has helped limit the drop in oil deliveries," it said.

"Saudi Arabia's strong fundamentals—low government debt, ample reserves, and a large sovereign wealth fund—provide important buffers,” the report added.

“Assuming maritime shipments through the Strait of Hormuz normalize in the coming months, a recovery could take hold, with growth this year notably lower but holding up at about 2 percent. Non-oil activity would be supported by domestic demand, underpinned by stable public employment, government spending, and the steady execution of private and public capital projects. Average inflation is projected to increase to about 2.3 percent as higher shipping and insurance costs add upward pressure on prices. Higher oil prices are expected to offset volume losses, generating a windfall that would reduce the current account and fiscal deficits in 2026.”

In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth at 3.1% for 2026, 1.4 percentage points lower than a January estimate. It had said that the Kingdom was expected to be less severely affected by the war.

In the Outlook, the IMF also upgraded Saudi Arabia's 2027 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%, a 0.9% increase from previous projections. This upward revision reflected anticipated normalizations in energy output and logistics.

In Wednesday’s report, the IMF said given the Saudi economy’s resilience, “the mission considers that a modest reduction in the non-oil primary deficit in 2026 remains appropriate, with spending reprioritization as the first line of action to accommodate any fiscal response to the conflict.”

The report lauded Saudi Arabia's strong fundamentals—low government debt, ample reserves, and a large sovereign wealth fund— that provide important buffers.

It said that should the shock prove more prolonged, Saudi Arabia has the space to loosen the fiscal stance to cushion the economy, with support to affected businesses and households that should be temporary, targeted, and transparent.

As the economy normalizes, an ambitious medium-term fiscal consolidation anchored on non-oil revenue mobilization and spending rationalization is needed, it said.

On the banking sector, the IMF said: “The peg to the US dollar provides a credible monetary policy anchor and helps underpin financial stability, particularly in the current environment of heightened uncertainty.”

“The banking sector is well-positioned to weather the shock, supported by strong capital and liquidity buffers,” it added.

The mission welcomed the efforts of the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) to step up the monitoring of liquidity, credit conditions, and asset quality. It also supported “SAMA's decision to proceed with the implementation of the 100 basis points countercyclical capital buffer, its proactive approach to containing risks from FX borrowing, and continued progress in strengthening its resolution and emergency liquidity assistance frameworks.”

The report added: “Ten years since its launch, Vision 2030 reforms have helped strengthen institutions and improve policymaking, boosting economic performance and reducing dependence on oil.”

“Sustaining the reform momentum to remove remaining impediments to diversification and to expand the role of the private sector will be key to maintaining strong growth prospects for the medium term,” it said.

In this regard, the IMF lauded PIF's recalibrated 2026–30 strategy, with its shift toward more selective capital allocation and greater private-sector crowding-in.

The report called for “improving the business environment, deepening capital markets, supporting small and medium enterprises, aligning education with labor market needs, strengthening governance, and scaling AI adoption while mitigating associated risks.”