Oil Rallies, Stocks Tumble as Trump Says US to Hammer Iran Further

Oil prices surged and stocks sank after Donald Trump's address to the nation. Alex Brandon / POOL/AFP
Oil prices surged and stocks sank after Donald Trump's address to the nation. Alex Brandon / POOL/AFP
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Oil Rallies, Stocks Tumble as Trump Says US to Hammer Iran Further

Oil prices surged and stocks sank after Donald Trump's address to the nation. Alex Brandon / POOL/AFP
Oil prices surged and stocks sank after Donald Trump's address to the nation. Alex Brandon / POOL/AFP

Oil prices spiked and stocks sank on Thursday after Donald Trump reiterated that US forces would hammer Iran for another two to three weeks but offered no solution to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that has crippled global markets.

Investors appeared to be unimpressed with the US president's much-anticipated address to the nation, in which he again called on countries that rely on the waterway for their energy supplies to reopen it themselves, AFP said.

The comments came amid growing fears about the economic impact of the crisis, which has seen governments introduce support measures, with the World Bank saying it was "extremely concerned".

In a speech lasting less than 20 minutes, Trump added little to what he has said in the past, warning that "over the next two to three weeks, we are going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong".

He also told the nation that US forces would meet all their battlefield goals "very, very shortly".

The address dented a nascent recovery in world markets that had come after Trump said earlier this week that the war would be ending "very soon", while his Iranian counterpart said his country had the "necessary will" to end it.

Brent crude, which had fallen back below $100 a barrel Wednesday, surged as much as five percent to hit $106.29, while West Texas Intermediate jumped more than four percent to as high as $104.29.

Trump "spoke of objectives met, but not of resolution. Of continued strikes, not withdrawal. Of optional escalation, not closure", wrote Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.

"The message was not one of panic, but it was unmistakably one of unfinished business. And in markets, unfinished business is oxygen for volatility.

"So oil did what oil always does when the illusion cracks. It surged, not because the war suddenly worsened, but because the market had prematurely priced in the expectation that it would end."

The reaction among equity traders was no better, with Seoul -- which soared more than eight percent Wednesday -- losing three percent. Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, Taipei and Sydney were also well down.

The speech "did not contain what the market had hoped for -- namely, indications of an end to the fighting", Jumpei Tanaka, of Pictet Asset Management, said. "Instead, he suggested a potential escalation of the situation, which is a clear negative for stocks."

Markets have endured huge volatility since the US-Israeli war on Iran was launched on February 28, with the president frequently U-turning after making policy statements, particularly with regards to foreign relations and military operations.

His announcements that Washington and Tehran were in peace talks have often been denied by the Iranian republic, while its Revolutionary Guards insisted the strait will remain closed to the country's "enemies".

Trump's repeated demand that countries that rely on energy through the Strait of Hormuz "get your own oil" comes as Britain prepares to host a meeting of about 35 nations Thursday to discuss how to reopen the waterway.

The meeting will "assess all viable diplomatic and political measures that we can take to restore freedom of navigation, guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers and resume the movement of vital commodities", UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said.

Meanwhile, the World Bank Managing Director Paschal Donohoe said he was fearful about the global economic impact of the crisis.

"We are extremely concerned regarding the effect that this will have on inflation, on jobs and on food security," he told AFP as the Bank announced a new partnership with the International Monetary Fund and International Energy Agency to coordinate aid responses.



Barclays Bank to Cut about 5,000 Jobs amid AI Drive

Barclays says the job cuts are due to AI efficiencies. Paul ELLIS / AFP/File
Barclays says the job cuts are due to AI efficiencies. Paul ELLIS / AFP/File
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Barclays Bank to Cut about 5,000 Jobs amid AI Drive

Barclays says the job cuts are due to AI efficiencies. Paul ELLIS / AFP/File
Barclays says the job cuts are due to AI efficiencies. Paul ELLIS / AFP/File

British bank Barclays announced Thursday plans to cut around 5,000 jobs, or roughly five percent of its global workforce, by the end of 2026 in an AI efficiency drive.

The announcement came alongside an earnings update that showed Barclays' net profit grew 13 percent in the third quarter, fueled by surging income across its equities division, said AFP.

Barclays said in an earnings presentation that it was implementing "organizational simplification and technology change efficiency driven by AI".

"About 60 percent of the job losses relate to support functions, including fewer developers as AI makes our people more productive," it added.

The bank's profit after tax grew to £1.65 billion ($2.2 billion) in the third quarter from £1.46 billion in the July-September period a year earlier.

Barclays chief executive C. S. Venkatakrishnan noted "ongoing momentum of... operational and financial performance" and said the investment bank division "delivered strong equities performance".

Revenue from equities jumped 47 percent year-on-year, while total group income for the quarter climbed three percent to £7.37 billion.

Barclays' share price was up slightly following the news updates.

The AI "announcement comes as the company failed to match expectations with its third-quarter performance -- with the unveiling of a healthy share buyback failing to entirely ease investors' disappointment", noted AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

"Across the wider group, costs went up and Barclays shareholders are also having to contend with two major clouds over the business.

"The first being a widely expected increase in tax on the sector in next week's (UK) budget and the other being a reported probe into possible misrepresentation of risks in its private credit portfolio."


Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Loses Over $30 Bn in 3rd Quarter

A view shows the building of Norway’s central bank (Norges Bank) in Oslo, Norway, June 23, 2022. REUTERS/Victoria Klesty/ File Photo
A view shows the building of Norway’s central bank (Norges Bank) in Oslo, Norway, June 23, 2022. REUTERS/Victoria Klesty/ File Photo
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Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Loses Over $30 Bn in 3rd Quarter

A view shows the building of Norway’s central bank (Norges Bank) in Oslo, Norway, June 23, 2022. REUTERS/Victoria Klesty/ File Photo
A view shows the building of Norway’s central bank (Norges Bank) in Oslo, Norway, June 23, 2022. REUTERS/Victoria Klesty/ File Photo

Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest with assets of more than $2 trillion, on Thursday reported a negative return of 278 billion kroner ($31 billion) in the third quarter as it was weighed down by higher interest rates.

It posted a negative return of 0.5 percent in the quarter, dragged down by a negative return of 3.5 percent in its fixed-income investments, while its equity and property portfolios increased by 0.5 percent and 0.4 percent respectively.

"The fund's return was close to flat, ending slightly negative as rising interest rates led to weaker results on our fixed-income investments," the fund's deputy CEO Trond Grande said in a statement.

Invested primarily in equities, bonds and real estate across the globe, the fund reported a value of 22,014 billion kroner at the end of September.

Inflation around the world, fuelled in particular by soaring energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East, has led several central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, to raise interest rates in the third quarter.

"Equity returns were also close to zero, but there were large differences between sectors.

Energy companies rose the most, while interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and real estate fell," Grande said, according to Reuters.

Fueled by the Nordic country's oil revenues, the fund is invested in more than 7,100 companies spanning the globe, and holds around 1.5 percent of all listed companies worldwide, making it the world's largest single investor.


IMF: Non-Oil Activities Bolster Saudi Economy’s Resilience to Disruptions

King Fahd Highway in Riyadh (SPA)
King Fahd Highway in Riyadh (SPA)
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IMF: Non-Oil Activities Bolster Saudi Economy’s Resilience to Disruptions

King Fahd Highway in Riyadh (SPA)
King Fahd Highway in Riyadh (SPA)

The International Monetary Fund’s outlook for the Saudi economy points to promising prospects for recovery and growth, despite pressures from regional disruptions affecting energy production, trade flows and supply chains.

While the Kingdom’s GDP is expected to be affected in 2026 by a decline in oil and gas activity, non-oil activities are proving more resilient. The economy is projected to rebound strongly in 2027 as energy production gradually returns to normal and security and trade conditions improve.

The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook, issued in October 2026, places Saudi Arabia among the major economies of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region, at a time when the region is grappling with the repercussions of conflicts and disruptions to energy supplies and global trade.

Temporary Growth Contraction, Non-Oil Activities Remain Resilient

The report forecasts that Saudi Arabia’s real GDP will contract by 3.3 percent in 2026, reflecting a decline in hydrocarbon-sector activity during the first half of the year amid disruptions affecting energy production, shipping and regional supply chains, particularly those linked to the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.

By contrast, the Kingdom’s non-oil activities have demonstrated resilience and performed relatively better than the energy sector, supported by sustained investment momentum and economic diversification programs associated with Vision 2030.

In the tourism sector, the Kingdom recorded the smallest decline in hotel occupancy rates compared with other countries directly affected by regional tensions, reflecting its relative ability to sustain tourism and services activity under the current circumstances.

Strong Rebound Expected in 2027

Despite the contraction expected in 2026, the IMF projects a strong rebound in the Saudi economy the following year, with real GDP forecast to grow by 7.9 percent in 2027.

The recovery is linked to the gradual return of energy production to normal levels, greater stability in security and trade conditions, and an improvement in global supply chains.

Over the medium term, the report projects Saudi real GDP growth to stabilize at around 3.6 percent by 2031, reflecting a return to a more stable growth trajectory following the volatility expected during the current period.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

On prices, average inflation in Saudi Arabia is estimated at around 2.7 percent in 2026 before stabilizing at approximately 2 percent in subsequent years, according to the projections cited in the report.

Factors including subsidies, price controls and fiscal discipline have helped contain inflationary pressures and maintain relative price stability compared with several other economies in the region.

On monetary policy, Gulf central banks, including Saudi monetary authorities, have taken steps in line with moves by the US Federal Reserve, with the aim of supporting financial market stability and limiting potential inflationary pressures.

Fiscal Resilience and Capacity to Absorb Shocks

Saudi fiscal policy in 2026 is characterized by discipline and prudence, while retaining room to direct spending toward strategic priorities, including infrastructure development, improving spending efficiency and supporting long-term structural reforms.

According to the report, the Kingdom also entered the period of regional disruption with comfortable reserves and fiscal buffers, helping it absorb temporary shocks that could affect the current account and official reserves.

These fiscal buffers are particularly important amid heightened regional and global uncertainty, providing greater capacity to withstand volatility while continuing to invest in economic priorities.

Artificial Intelligence

Investment in technology and artificial intelligence is one of the areas in which Saudi Arabia, alongside other Gulf countries, is seeking to expand its presence. The report examines announced investments in AI infrastructure and data centers, which, according to figures cited in the report, exceed 5 percent of GDP. These investments are expected to contribute to stronger productivity and growth over the medium term.

At the same time, structural reforms remain an important factor in strengthening the economy’s ability to withstand external shocks by increasing labor-market flexibility, investing in human capital and diversifying non-oil exports.

The report also points to the progress made by Gulf Cooperation Council countries in diversifying their merchandise exports over the past two decades, underscoring the importance of continuing efforts to broaden the production and trade base and reduce dependence on traditional sources of income.

Taken together, these trends underscore the importance of economic diversification and investment in new sectors in strengthening Saudi Arabia’s ability to weather the repercussions of current disruptions while preserving its medium-term growth prospects.