Iran War as a New Catalyst...China Secretly Enters Nuclear Arms Race

China asserts that it follows a defensive strategy and is committed to the no-first-use of nuclear weapons (file-Reuters).
China asserts that it follows a defensive strategy and is committed to the no-first-use of nuclear weapons (file-Reuters).
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Iran War as a New Catalyst...China Secretly Enters Nuclear Arms Race

China asserts that it follows a defensive strategy and is committed to the no-first-use of nuclear weapons (file-Reuters).
China asserts that it follows a defensive strategy and is committed to the no-first-use of nuclear weapons (file-Reuters).

When three villagers from China’s Sichuan Province wrote to local officials in 2022 questioning why the government was confiscating their land and evicting them from their homes, they received a brief response: "It is a state secret."

An investigation by CNN revealed that this secret centers on China's plans to significantly expand its nuclear capabilities. More than three years after the citizen evacuations, satellite imagery shows their village has been leveled, replaced by new buildings designed to support some of China’s most critical nuclear weapons production facilities.

CNN reported that the expansion of these sites in Sichuan, observed through satellite imagery and a review of dozens of Chinese government documents, confirms recent allegations by President Donald Trump’s administration that Beijing is conducting its largest nuclear modernization campaign in decades.

President Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing on a historic trip next month, where he is expected to seek a dialogue on an agreement to curb Chinese President Xi Jinping’s nuclear ambitions.

Most Significant New Facilities in Sichuan Province

Among the most prominent of these facilities is a massive, fortified dome built on the banks of the Tongjiang River in less than five years. It appears to still be undergoing outfitting, suggesting it may not yet be operational.

The reinforced dome covers an area of 3,344 square meters (equivalent to 13 tennis courts). It is encased in a concrete and steel structure equipped with radiation monitoring devices and blast-proof doors, with a network of pipes extending from the facility to a building featuring a high ventilation chimney.

According to several experts, these features, along with advanced air-handling equipment, are designed to contain highly radioactive materials, such as uranium and plutonium, within the dome, indicating an expansion of the Chinese nuclear program's production capacity. The facility is also surrounded by three layers of security fencing.

No Sign of Retreat

This development comes at a time of rising international tensions, particularly following the expiration of the latest nuclear arms limitation treaty between the United States and Russia (known as "New START") earlier this year. Trump is seeking to broker a new and improved agreement with Moscow that would also include China.

However, the radical changes witnessed in Sichuan indicate that the Chinese military's nuclear weapons development shows no sign of slowing down, according to the CNN report.

In contrast, China denies the accusations; military spokesperson Jiang Bin emphasized that his country "follows a defensive strategy and is committed to no-first-use of nuclear weapons."

However, experts believe the significant changes on the ground reflect a fundamental shift in the nuclear program. Analyst Decker Eveleth said that this extensive modernization suggests a fundamental restructuring of the technology underpinning the entire system.

Renny Babiarz, Vice President of Analysis and Operations at AllSource Analysis, who reviewed the satellite imagery for CNN, also pointed to the potential development of "new processes and different types of equipment" within these facilities. He said it was clear that there are many changes happening on the ground."

This expansion coincides with directives issued by the Chinese President to accelerate the building of strategic deterrence capabilities amid escalating regional tensions, particularly regarding Taiwan.

Observers believe these moves could lead to a new nuclear arms race more complex than the Cold War era, with China emerging as a major third party. There are also concerns that the United States might overestimate China's capabilities, thereby exacerbating nuclear proliferation.

Jeffrey Lewis, a distinguished scholar in global security at the Middlebury Institute, said some in the US will argue that we need to radically expand our nuclear weapons production capacity to match China..."but we won't be matching what they are doing; we will be matching what we think they are doing. We will be matching our own nightmare. And that is extremely dangerous."

Impact of the Iran War on China’s Nuclear Program

Experts say that the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran may have strengthened China's resolve to expand its nuclear program.

"If you were Chinese and looked at what is happening, you wouldn't see that disarmament or weakening yourself makes any sense," Lewis said. He added: "One outcome of what the Trump administration is doing in Iran will not be to intimidate or subdue China, but rather to push it to build more nuclear weapons."

Lewis noted that, given these factors, the chances of reaching arms control agreements appear limited, pointing out that China may engage in "formal" dialogues to de-escalate tensions without offering substantial concessions.



Trump Warns Iran Blockade Could Last Months, Sending Oil Prices Soaring

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he meets with NASA's Artemis II astronauts Victor Glover, Christina Koch, Reid Wiseman and Jeremy Hansen in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he meets with NASA's Artemis II astronauts Victor Glover, Christina Koch, Reid Wiseman and Jeremy Hansen in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
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Trump Warns Iran Blockade Could Last Months, Sending Oil Prices Soaring

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he meets with NASA's Artemis II astronauts Victor Glover, Christina Koch, Reid Wiseman and Jeremy Hansen in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he meets with NASA's Artemis II astronauts Victor Glover, Christina Koch, Reid Wiseman and Jeremy Hansen in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

President Donald Trump said a US naval blockade against Iran could last months, leading oil prices to spike to their highest level in more than four years, which held into Thursday.

Trump is expected to receive a briefing on Thursday on new plans for potential military action in Iran from Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of US Central Command, two sources with knowledge told Axios.

With diplomacy between Iran and the United States at a standstill after false starts, Trump spoke by phone Wednesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who warned him of "damaging consequences" if the United States and Israel resume their war on Iran.

Meeting oil executives, Trump contended that the blockade of Iranian ports -- which Tehran has demanded must end before any deal -- was more effective than bombing.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said Wednesday on X that it had reached a "significant milestone after successfully redirecting the 42nd commercial vessel attempting to violate the blockade".

It said there are "41 tankers with 69 million barrels of oil that the Iranian regime can't sell", estimating the value at more than $6 billion.

Trump has faced intense political pressure to end the war, which is unpopular even with much of his base, having increased costs for American consumers and unnerved US allies.

Trump, speaking to Axios, said of the naval action on Iran: "They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them."

Oil prices soared to four-year highs, with US benchmark Brent spiking more than seven percent to $126.41 for June delivery, while West Texas Intermediate was up around three percent to $110.31. Both later pared the gains, AFP reported.

Top US officials including Vice President JD Vance twice turned back last week from trips to Pakistan to negotiate with Iran, which has voiced doubts about Trump's sincerity for diplomacy.

US officials contend they do not know who is speaking for Iran, whether it is the hardline and increasingly empowered Revolutionary Guards or diplomats, after Israeli strikes killed a series of top leaders.

Iran has proposed easing its chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz as Washington lifts its blockade and broader negotiations take place. The Trump administration has been skeptical of the proposal.

Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has emerged as a key figure since the start of the war, said Wednesday the US naval blockade of the country aimed to create division and "make us collapse from within".


Grossi: Iran's Highly Enriched Uranium Likely is at Isfahan Site

Rafael Grossi, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General and a candidate for United Nations Secretary-General, speaks during an interview at UN headquarters, Tuesday, April 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)
Rafael Grossi, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General and a candidate for United Nations Secretary-General, speaks during an interview at UN headquarters, Tuesday, April 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)
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Grossi: Iran's Highly Enriched Uranium Likely is at Isfahan Site

Rafael Grossi, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General and a candidate for United Nations Secretary-General, speaks during an interview at UN headquarters, Tuesday, April 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)
Rafael Grossi, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General and a candidate for United Nations Secretary-General, speaks during an interview at UN headquarters, Tuesday, April 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

The majority of Iran’s highly enriched uranium is likely still at its Isfahan nuclear complex, which was bombarded by airstrikes last year and faced less intense attacks in this year’s US-Israeli war, the UN nuclear agency’s leader.

Rafael Grossi told The Associated Press on Tuesday that the International Atomic Energy Agency has satellite images showing the effects of the latest US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran and that “we continue to get information.”

IAEA inspections ended at Isfahan when Israel last June launched a 12-day war that saw the United States bomb three Iranian nuclear sites.

The UN nuclear watchdog believes a large percentage of Iran’s highly enriched uranium “was stored there in June 2025 when the 12-day war broke out, and it has been there ever since,” Grossi said.

“We haven’t been able to inspect or to reject that the material is there and that the seals — the IAEA seals — remain there,” he said. “I hope we’ll be able to do that, so what I tell you is our best estimate.”

Images from an Airbus satellite show a truck loaded with 18 blue containers going into a tunnel at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center on June 9, 2025, just before last year’s war started. Those containers, believed to contain highly enriched uranium, likely remain there.

All Iran’s nuclear sites must be inspected

The IAEA also wants to inspect Iran’s nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordo, where there is also some nuclear material, the IAEA director general added.

Iran is a party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, whose five-year review is underway at UN headquarters. Under its provisions, Iran is required to open its nuclear facilities to IAEA inspection, Grossi said.

Iran has 440.9 kilograms of uranium that is enriched up to 60% purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, according to the agency. Grossi has said the IAEA believes roughly 200 kilograms is stored in tunnels at the Isfahan site.

The Iranian stockpile could allow the country to build as many as 10 nuclear bombs, should it decide to weaponize its program, Grossi told AP last year.

Tehran long has insisted its nuclear program is peaceful. US President Donald Trump said one of the major reasons the US went to war was to deny Iran the ability to develop nuclear weapons, even as he has insisted that the strikes last summer “obliterated” the country’s atomic program.

Last Saturday, The New York Times reported that Iran has a total of 11 tons of uranium, at various enrichment levels. A nuclear expert told the newspaper that Iran’s stockpile could yield roughly 35 to 55 weapons depending on its skill in making not only the bomb’s fuel core but such nonnuclear parts as detonators that spark the chain reactions. Another expert said Iran’s stockpile was sufficient for 50 to 100 bombs if further enriched.

Taking the highly enriched uranium out of Iran

Grossi said the IAEA has discussed with Russia and others the possibility of sending Iran’s highly enriched uranium out of the country — a complex operation that would require either a political agreement or a major US military operation in hostile territory.

Grossi noted that “what’s going to be important is that that material leaves Iran” or is blended to reduce its enrichment.

He said the IAEA participated in US-Iran nuclear talks in February but has not been part of recent ceasefire negotiations mediated by Pakistan. He said the agency has been in discussions separately with the US and informally with Iran.

The IAEA chief said negotiations now are a “completely different ballgame” because of Iran’s “exponential progress” not only on enriching uranium but using the latest generation of centrifuges, different compounds and new facilities.

‘Political will’

It would take “political will” from Tehran to reach a deal, Grossi told AP, stressing that “Iran has to be convinced that it is important to negotiate.”

Iran’s leaders say they are willing to negotiate and so does the Republican US president, Grossi said, but “where the frustration kicks in, apparently for both, is that they do not seem to come to agreement, or be at an eye-to-eye level, on what needs to be done first, or on how.”

Calling himself a negotiator who likes to see a “flicker of hope,” Grossi noted that “one important thing is that there is apparently an interest on both sides to come to an agreement.”

Asked if he thinks the Iranians are serious about making a deal, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News Channel this week that they are skilled negotiators looking to buy time and that any agreement must be “one that definitively prevents them from sprinting towards a nuclear weapon at any point.”


USS Ford Aircraft Carrier Departs Middle East after Record-breaking Deployment

The US Navy aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford departs Souda Bay on the island of Crete on February 26, 2026. (Photo by Costas METAXAKIS / AFP)
The US Navy aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford departs Souda Bay on the island of Crete on February 26, 2026. (Photo by Costas METAXAKIS / AFP)
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USS Ford Aircraft Carrier Departs Middle East after Record-breaking Deployment

The US Navy aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford departs Souda Bay on the island of Crete on February 26, 2026. (Photo by Costas METAXAKIS / AFP)
The US Navy aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford departs Souda Bay on the island of Crete on February 26, 2026. (Photo by Costas METAXAKIS / AFP)

The world's largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, will be heading home following a record-setting deployment of more than 300 days that included participating in the war against Iran and capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, two US officials said Wednesday.

The Ford will be leaving the Middle East in the coming days and returning to its home port in Virginia in mid-May, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to detail sensitive military movements. The Washington Post reported the development earlier.

The arrival of the USS George H.W. Bush to the region last week meant three American aircraft carriers were deployed to the Middle East — a number not seen since 2003 — during a tenuous ceasefire in the Iran war. USS Abraham Lincoln also has been in the region since January as tensions with Tehran ramped up.

This month, the Ford broke the US record for the longest post-Vietnam War deployment, a nearly 10-month span after leaving Naval Station Norfolk in June, The Associated Press reported.

The ship’s 295th day at sea surpassed the previous longest deployment by an aircraft carrier in the past 50 years, when the Lincoln was sent out for 294 days in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data compiled by US Naval Institute News, a news outlet run by the US Naval Institute, a nonprofit organization.

The Ford's long deployment has raised questions about the impact on service members who are away from home for long periods as well as increasing strain on the ship and its equipment, with the carrier already enduring a fire that forced it to undergo lengthy repairs.

Asked about the Ford's long deployment in a hearing Wednesday before the House Armed Services Committee, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said he consulted with the Navy and those officials did mention readiness and maintenance tradeoffs.

"Multiple times the operational requirements — whether it was down in Southcom or up to Centcom — demanded additional assets in real time, which through a tough decision-making process led to an extension,” Hegseth said, referring to US Southern Command, which oversees Latin America, and US Central Command in the Middle East.

The Ford began its deployment by heading to the Mediterranean Sea. It was then rerouted to the Caribbean Sea in October as part of the largest naval buildup in the region in generations.

The carrier took part in the military operation to capture Maduro. Then it would see more battle, heading toward the Middle East as tensions with Iran escalated.

The carrier took part in the opening days of the Iran war from the Mediterranean Sea before going through the Suez Canal and heading into the Red Sea in early March.

However, a fire in one of its laundry spaces forced the carrier to turn around and return to the Mediterranean Sea for repairs, leaving hundreds of sailors without places to sleep.

The Ford’s 295-day deployment falls short of the longest deployment during the Cold War, a record held by the now-decommissioned USS Midway. It was deployed for 332 days in 1972 and 1973.

More recently, the crew of the USS Nimitz was on duty and away from home for a total of 341 days in 2020 and 2021. However, that included extended isolation periods ashore in the US meant to help prevent the spread of COVID-19.