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Dollar Steady as Traders Weigh Escalating Iran War, Ceasefire Hopes

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
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Dollar Steady as Traders Weigh Escalating Iran War, Ceasefire Hopes

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)

The dollar was steady on Monday, while the yen flirted with the crucial 160 per dollar level, as nervous investors took stock of the escalating Iran war, with all eyes on the latest deadline from US President Donald Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In an expletive-laden Easter Sunday social media post, Trump threatened to target Iran's power plants and bridges on Tuesday if the strategic waterway is not reopened, setting a precise deadline of 8 p.m. Tuesday Eastern Time (0000 GMT).

With most of Asia and Europe closed for holiday on Monday, liquidity is likely to be thin, with investor focus on the possibility of a ceasefire after a media report suggested a last-ditch push from negotiators was underway.

"Trump's latest deadline itself is bearish not because investors think war is guaranteed tomorrow if ‌Iran does not ‌open the strait, but because every new ultimatum makes the disruption look longer, ‌stickier ⁠and more macro-negative," ⁠said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore.

The euro was at $1.1523, while sterling last fetched $1.3211. The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six rivals, was slightly lower at 100.12.

The Australian dollar was 0.3% higher at $0.69045, wobbling near the two-month low that it hit last week.

In the kind of mixed messaging that has baffled supporters, foes and financial markets alike, Trump told Fox News on Sunday that Iran was negotiating, with a deal possible by Monday.

Axios reported the US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire that could ⁠lead to a permanent end to the war.

Global markets have been rattled since ‌the US-Israel war on Iran broke out at the end of February, ‌with Tehran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that is a thoroughfare through which about a fifth ‌of the world's total oil and liquefied natural gas passes.

"If the strait is reopened fully around that ‌time (Trump's Tuesday deadline), oil will fall sharply and risk will rally hard," said Prashant Newnaha, senior rates strategist at TD Securities.

"However, if the US escalates, expect global markets to reprice sharply. It's wait-and-watch in what's turning out to be a binary event."

The closure has caused oil prices to surge well above $100 per barrel, stoking fears of high inflation and upending rates outlooks across the ‌world. Worries about the hit to economic growth have also weighed as stagflation risks swirl.

Traders are now no longer pricing a move from the Federal Reserve ⁠well into the second ⁠half of 2027, compared with expectations of two rate cuts in 2026 at the start of the year.

Data last week suggested US labor market conditions remained calm in March, though economists warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East posed a downside risk.

YEN WATCH

The Japanese yen was flat at 159.55 per US dollar, not far from the 21-month low that it hit last week as traders watch for indications of Tokyo intervening in the wake of strong warnings from officials in the past few days.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Friday put currency traders on notice, saying the government stands ready to act against speculative moves in foreign exchange markets as volatility has risen "significantly."

Still, many doubt the firepower of any intervention at a time when geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East is fueling relentless demand for the safe-haven dollar. The yen is down 1.5% since the war started, stuck near the 160 level.

Speculators have also been adding to their short yen positioning, with the latest weekly data showing a short position worth $5.7 billion, the highest since July 2024, when Japan last intervened in the FX markets.

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Business

Dollar Inches Higher as 10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to Highest Since 2007

The dollar's six-currency index rose 0.15% to 99.633, also gaining support from weakened risk appetite as shares markets tumbled. (Reuters)
The dollar's six-currency index rose 0.15% to 99.633, also gaining support from weakened risk appetite as shares markets tumbled. (Reuters)
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Dollar Inches Higher as 10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to Highest Since 2007

The dollar's six-currency index rose 0.15% to 99.633, also gaining support from weakened risk appetite as shares markets tumbled. (Reuters)
The dollar's six-currency index rose 0.15% to 99.633, also gaining support from weakened risk appetite as shares markets tumbled. (Reuters)

The dollar strengthened towards a two-week high on Tuesday, as surging oil prices pushed Treasury yields to fresh peaks since 2007, and cemented expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this week.

The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields reversed an earlier loss and climbed to a high of 5.0266% in Asian trading hours, the highest since 2007.

Oil prices held near a four-month peak, standing at $107 a barrel, after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis launched a new wave of attacks on Saudi Arabia and Gulf-Iran talks were postponed.

Markets ‌now see a ‌Fed hike on Wednesday as a near certainty, with ‌CME's ⁠FedWatch tool pricing ⁠in a roughly 93% chance of an interest-rate increase.

"The combination of higher oil, higher US yields and weaker risk appetite helped lift the US dollar broadly," Christopher Wong, an FX analyst at OCBC, said in a note.

Near-term support may persist, but with a hike now heavily priced in, further dollar upside will likely require the Fed to keep the door open to additional tightening, he added.

Pressured by broad greenback strength, ⁠the euro hovered near a one-month low at $1.535 and sterling ‌was 0.1% weaker at $1.3485.

The yen also pulled away from ‌a seven-month high, standing down roughly 0.4% at 154.91 ahead of an expected Bank of ‌Japan rate hike on Friday.

The New Zealand dollar dipped 0.3% to a ‌two-month low of $0.5757, while the Australian dollar was also 0.2% lower at $0.7120.

The dollar's six-currency index rose 0.15% to 99.633, also gaining support from weakened risk appetite as shares markets tumbled.

RATE HIKES AWAITED

The renewed energy-induced inflation pressures follow a jobs report that was much stronger than expected and a ‌pickup in consumer prices for August, strengthening market conviction that the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters ⁠also expect at ⁠least one more hike by the end of March, reversing a fragile no-change consensus prior to Friday's official data showing firm inflation.

The inflation outlook now hinges on oil prices, but the broader macro picture does not warrant more hikes than currently priced in the curve, analysts at BCA said in a note.

"Limited hawkishness from here argues for curve steepeners and limited USD upside."

Markets are also all but certain that the Bank of Japan will raise rates on Friday. Market sentiment on the yen is starting to shift, with speculators turning to a net long position on the Japanese currency for the first time since February.

Offshore yuan was flat at 6.708 per dollar, hovering near its strongest in more than three years, after data showing China's industrial sector regained strength in August, though consumption remained sluggish.

Business

Tech Boom Powers China’s Factories but Economic Imbalances Deepen as Consumption Slows

People visit a cutting-edge technology festival at the Zhongguancun, a landmark park of Hi-tech enterprises in Beijing on September 12, 2026. (AFP)
People visit a cutting-edge technology festival at the Zhongguancun, a landmark park of Hi-tech enterprises in Beijing on September 12, 2026. (AFP)
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Tech Boom Powers China’s Factories but Economic Imbalances Deepen as Consumption Slows

People visit a cutting-edge technology festival at the Zhongguancun, a landmark park of Hi-tech enterprises in Beijing on September 12, 2026. (AFP)
People visit a cutting-edge technology festival at the Zhongguancun, a landmark park of Hi-tech enterprises in Beijing on September 12, 2026. (AFP)

China's industrial sector showed renewed strength in August as the AI-driven tech boom fueled factory output, though sluggish consumption and a worsening investment slump reinforced concerns over deepening economic imbalances.

Tuesday's data highlighted a familiar fault line in the world's second-largest economy, where resilient manufacturing and exports are sustaining growth even as weak household spending and a property market downturn weigh on domestic demand. The divergence is likely to intensify pressure on Beijing to roll out more support measures as policymakers seek a more balanced recovery.

Industrial output grew 5.2% from a year earlier in August, quickening from a 4.5% increase in July and beating expectations for a 4.8% rise, figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Strong expansion in equipment and high-tech manufacturing underpinned the production upturn.

Retail sales, a gauge of consumer activity, ‌rose 0.4%, slowing from ‌a 0.6% gain in July and below an expected 0.8% rise.

Weak consumption and the ‌real ⁠estate market crisis ⁠dragged second-quarter gross domestic product growth to 4.3%, the slowest pace in more than three years and below the lower end of China's 4.5%-5.0% annual target.

"Barring an unexpectedly strong September, GDP growth will likely remain sluggish in the third quarter," said Lynn Song, ING's Greater China chief economist.

Oxford Economics lowered its 2026 growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 4.7% and cut next year's to 4.3%, from 4.6%, "reflecting a more prolonged property downturn which is likely to keep growth subdued despite stronger public investment," senior economist Sheana Yue said.

The data barely moved China's markets, leaving the key stock benchmarks down roughly 0.3% while the yuan weakened slightly against the dollar.

PROPERTY SLUMP, TECH BOOM

The ⁠latest data underscored the scale of the challenge facing policymakers as businesses remain reluctant to ‌commit new capital and the property market continues to sap consumption and restrain growth.

Fixed-asset ‌investment, which includes infrastructure and property investment, declined 7.2% in the first eight months, marking the steepest drop since April 2020.

Property investment dived ‌19.9% in the first eight months from the same period last year, and new home prices extended declines from the ‌previous month, signaling a housing market still trapped in a prolonged downturn.

Against that backdrop, strong exports driven by AI infrastructure spending and demand for advanced technology products are providing a critical buffer for growth.

Investment in high-tech industries expanded 5.2% in the January-to-August period, in keeping with the global AI boom. Output of lithium-ion batteries and industrial robots, for example, soared 57.2% and 34.6% year-on-year, respectively.

Behind the divide is a government push ‌to guide resources to the advanced manufacturing sector to reduce the economy's reliance on property and bolster technological self-sufficiency, but the surge in high-tech investment has yet to translate into stronger ⁠household incomes or greater ⁠job security.

The nationwide urban surveyed unemployment rate came in at 5.3% for August, edging up from 5.2% the previous month.

GOVERNMENT PLEDGES FISCAL SUPPORT

Factory activity improved last month, but it remained in contraction and services activity stayed sluggish. Weak domestic demand also weighed on credit growth, as new bank loans returned to positive territory but fell well short of analysts' forecasts after a record contraction in July.

Extreme weather likely remained a drag on activity. Four typhoons made landfall in China during August, disrupting operations in the east-coast manufacturing and logistics belt.

Growth also faces mounting external headwinds, including the Middle East conflict, elevated oil prices and a global tightening cycle that is keeping borrowing costs high.

"The external environment is complex and challenging, while domestic structural adjustment pressures persist, meaning sustained efforts are still needed to put the economy on a firmer growth trajectory," Fu Linghui, a spokesperson at the statistics bureau, told a briefing.

Beijing has responded to the challenges with faster government bond issuance and expanded loan interest subsidies for small private firms and consumers, while the central bank has pledged additional policy support without signaling explicit cuts to policy rates or banks' reserve-requirement ratio.

"Policymakers' reluctance to deploy a more forceful consumption-focused stimulus is likely to prolong the adjustment process," analysts at Barclays said in a note to clients.

Business

China’s Fossil-Fueled Power Output Falls 4.3% in August as Clean Energy Gains

This picture shows the construction site of the CNNC Tianwan Tidal Flat Photovoltaic Demonstration Project in Lianyungang, in eastern China's Jiangsu province on September 15, 2026. (CN-STR / AFP)
This picture shows the construction site of the CNNC Tianwan Tidal Flat Photovoltaic Demonstration Project in Lianyungang, in eastern China's Jiangsu province on September 15, 2026. (CN-STR / AFP)
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China’s Fossil-Fueled Power Output Falls 4.3% in August as Clean Energy Gains

This picture shows the construction site of the CNNC Tianwan Tidal Flat Photovoltaic Demonstration Project in Lianyungang, in eastern China's Jiangsu province on September 15, 2026. (CN-STR / AFP)
This picture shows the construction site of the CNNC Tianwan Tidal Flat Photovoltaic Demonstration Project in Lianyungang, in eastern China's Jiangsu province on September 15, 2026. (CN-STR / AFP)

China's fossil-fueled power generation fell 4.3% in August from a year earlier, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Tuesday, as rising hydropower, nuclear and renewable output cut into coal's share.

It was the second month in a row of declines for China's fossil-fueled or thermal power generation, which is mostly from coal with a small amount from natural gas.

"Power generation from coal and gas fell 4% in China in August, as solar and wind ‌covered all electricity ‌demand growth and hydropower and nuclear grew ‌as ⁠well," the Centre ⁠for Research on Energy and Clean Air co-founder Lauri Myllyvirta wrote in a LinkedIn post, adding that "wind power generation rebounded from the slump of the earlier months of the year."

Thermal electricity generation still rose 0.9% over the first eight months as a whole, dragged down by the earlier months ⁠of the year because of poor ‌wind speeds and maintenance at nuclear ‌units.

Hydropower volumes rose 2.8% in August and 7.8% over ‌the first eight months.

Nuclear power generation rose 9.4% ‌from a year earlier. Two new nuclear reactors, the Guangdong Taipingling nuclear power plant and unit 3 of the Changjiang nuclear power plant, started operations in August, according to state media. Over the first ‌eight months, it rose 1.6%.

China generated 943.8 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of power in August, down ⁠0.8% ⁠compared with the same period of last year, the statistics bureau figures also showed. However, the data reflects output from industrial enterprises with revenue above 20 million yuan ($2.98 million), so excludes some small-scale renewables and generally undercounts total power generation as well as wind and solar.

The data showed that solar and wind generation rose 10.3% and 7.9%, respectively, from a year earlier.

Over the first eight months as a whole, power generation reached 6.65 trillion kWh, up 2.4% compared with the same period of last year, the data showed.