Airlines across Asia are cutting flights, carrying extra fuel from home airports and adding refueling stops as the Middle East conflict squeezes jet fuel supply in some countries, adding to pressure on an industry already hit by a sharp jump in fuel costs.
European carriers are bracing for similar disruption after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off nearly 21% of global seaborne jet fuel supply, according to Kpler.
Previous oil shocks mainly drove up prices, but this one is also constraining physical supply, forcing governments, airlines and airports to consider rationing.
"In my conversation with airlines, they are very concerned about what the future looks like, because we do not know when the war will end and we don't know when the supply chain, the feedstock, will come from the Gulf area," said Shukor Yusof, founder of aviation consultancy Endau Analytics.
Asia, Europe and Africa are most exposed, analysts say, because the US has ample domestic supplies.
Within Asia, the pain has so far been sharpest in lower-income, import-dependent markets such as Vietnam, Myanmar and Pakistan after China and Thailand halted jet fuel exports and South Korea capped them at last year’s levels.
Budget airline AirAsia X is now loading extra fuel in Malaysia before flying to Vietnamese airports, CEO Bo Lingam told reporters on Monday.
"Not to say that they are not giving us fuel, but they limit the amount of fuel," he said of Vietnam.
JET FUEL RATIONING
Past temporary jet fuel shortages at airports due to shipment disruptions or contamination have usually led to rationing rather than complete outages.
Airlines have typically responded by loading extra fuel at home airports, adding refueling stops on longer routes or carrying less cargo.
For a more prolonged crisis, another solution is cutting flights, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary said last week when he expressed concerns the Middle Eastern conflict may not end this month.
"If there's a risk to 10% or 20% of the fuel supply in June or July or August, then we and other airlines will have to start looking at cancelling some flights or taking some capacity out," he told reporters.
Asia, which has a thinner supply cushion than Europe and is more dependent on Hormuz flows, has been hit more quickly.
Vietnam Airlines has cut 23 domestic flights per week to conserve fuel, according to the country's aviation authority.
Airlines based in Myanmar suspended domestic flights for part of March due to jet fuel shortages, its transport ministry said, and some of its carriers have also cut capacity in April, according to aviation data provider Cirium.
Air India is making refueling stops in Kolkata on its return from Yangon to Delhi due to fuel shortages at Yangon airport, according to a source familiar with the matter.
In the South Pacific, Tahiti International Airport has restricted refueling for international flights to quantities essential for flight operations due to the Middle Eastern crisis, a notice to pilots shows.
In Pakistan, pilots are being advised to carry maximum fuel from abroad.
That practice, known as "tankering", is costly because carrying extra fuel increases fuel burn.
"Some countries are in better shape than others," said Brendan Sobie, a Singapore-based independent aviation analyst. "Some may be limiting (fuel for) foreign airlines, which then leads to the tankering. This could be proactive as some countries fear they could run out."
DEMAND DESTRUCTION
A more than doubling of jet fuel prices since the start of the Iran war has pushed some airlines to cut capacity, while others have hiked fares and imposed fuel surcharges.
In one of the starkest examples, Batik Air Malaysia has slashed domestic capacity by 36%, with CEO Chandran Rama Muthy describing the cuts as a necessary and proactive response to a "crisis-mode" environment.
"If we were to continue operating without making adjustments, it could further expose the company to operational and financial risk," he said.
Gulf carriers such as Emirates and Qatar Airways have been operating well below normal capacity due to the conflict, while other global airlines have also cut flights as fare increases needed to cover fuel costs deter price-sensitive travellers.
Even with flight cuts, airline demand is not falling fast enough to match the drop in jet fuel supply, analysts said.
At least 400,000 barrels per day of jet fuel that normally is produced in the Asia-Pacific region via crude that transits the Strait of Hormuz have been affected since the crisis started, according to Reuters' calculations.
"There is no easy way to replace the lost volumes, especially as Asian supply will start to tighten as refiners cut runs," said Alex Yap, senior oil products analyst at Energy Aspects.
Industry sources estimate flight cancellations have lowered April demand in Asia specifically by only about 50,000 to 100,000 barrels per day, suggesting deeper cuts may be needed.
"We're only just at the start of that cycle (of flight cuts) as demand from passengers seems to be resilient, but I think any oil-spike induced economic slowdown could hit demand in the second half of the year," said Cirium's Asia editor, Ellis Taylor.
