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Expert to Asharq Al-Awsat: Zelenskyy Offered Syria Phosphate-for-Wheat, Drones Deal

A handout photo made available by Presidential Press Service shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (L) and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (R) during their meeting in Damascus, Syria, 05 April 2026. (EPA/Presidential Press Service)
A handout photo made available by Presidential Press Service shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (L) and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (R) during their meeting in Damascus, Syria, 05 April 2026. (EPA/Presidential Press Service)
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Expert to Asharq Al-Awsat: Zelenskyy Offered Syria Phosphate-for-Wheat, Drones Deal

A handout photo made available by Presidential Press Service shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (L) and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (R) during their meeting in Damascus, Syria, 05 April 2026. (EPA/Presidential Press Service)
A handout photo made available by Presidential Press Service shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (L) and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (R) during their meeting in Damascus, Syria, 05 April 2026. (EPA/Presidential Press Service)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first visit to Damascus might have passed as routine, aimed at strengthening ties, but its timing amid regional tensions and Türkiye’s presence gave it added weight.

Analysts saw multiple messages in the trip, including signals to Russia as regional power balances shift. A military expert instead framed it as part of Zelenskyy’s regional push to promote Ukrainian drones, curb sales of stolen Ukrainian grain, and secure Syrian phosphate.

Retired colonel Imad Shahoud told Asharq Al-Awsat that Türkiye is keen to keep relations between Damascus and Kyiv balanced, in line with Ankara’s cautious approach to Syria. Turkish participation, he said, was meant to keep talks on track and avoid politically sensitive positions during the ongoing war.

He placed the visit within Zelenskyy’s broader outreach, which included defense agreements with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as security talks in Istanbul.

Shahoud said Ukraine is seeking to market its drones in exchange for French Mirage jets from Gulf states, while also pressing Gulf states for help to prevent Egypt from buying Ukrainian grain that Russia is selling at lower prices.

On Syria, he said Ukraine is offering wheat in exchange for phosphate at a low cost. A Russian company controls about 70 percent of Syria’s phosphate output and sells it to Europe.

He added that Western countries want to pull Syria away from Russia, but Damascus is maintaining a balanced relationship based on accepting “current realities”.

Many agreements remain in place and are under review, especially oil and gas deals granted to Russian firms as wartime compensation. Any misstep could affect those talks.

Abdulwahhab Assi, head of studies at Jusoor Center, said Syria is seeking to use current regional conditions to build a deterrence system. Israel has repeatedly opposed Turkish plans to deploy air defenses in southern and central Syria and has also objected to potential US provision of Patriot systems.

Assi told Asharq Al-Awsat that Syria’s options are limited between Ukraine and Russia. Kyiv offers lighter technologies that may avoid political and military complications with Syria or Israel, while Moscow appears weaker but remains in play.

He said Damascus needs leverage in talks with Russia over rebuilding military assets damaged during the war, particularly after Israel’s Operation Arrow of Bashan in December 2024.

Talks with Moscow have yet to deliver what Syria hopes for, he said, making engagement with Ukraine a potential pressure tool.

Still, he stressed Ukraine is not a strategic alternative to Russia, but a technical partner that could help reduce threats from Iranian missiles and drones, and assist in repairing military equipment through its officers and advisers.

Assi said Russia is likely to factor this into ongoing negotiations, as Syria, with Turkish backing, has secured a technical alternative that could strengthen its political position.

Abdulhamid Tawfiq, head of the Renaissance Center for Research and Studies, said the growing Ukrainian presence in Syria following Russia’s declining role was central to Zelenskyy’s visit.

The trip reflects wider regional and international shifts, with Ukraine now at the forefront of confrontation with Russia alongside NATO, the United States, and the West, which views Syria as strategically important, Tawfiq told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He said Ukraine’s emergence in Syria sends a direct message to Russia that new balances can be shaped in the country and the region.

Syria, he added, could turn to Ukraine for support across sectors, including the economy, agriculture, and civilian and military industry, helping drive development.

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Arab World

Humanitarian, Security Conditions Deteriorate in Gaza as Armed Group Attacks Continue

A young Palestinian boy drags scrap metal against the backdrop of destroyed buildings in Nuseirat on November 2, 2026. (AFP)
A young Palestinian boy drags scrap metal against the backdrop of destroyed buildings in Nuseirat on November 2, 2026. (AFP)
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Humanitarian, Security Conditions Deteriorate in Gaza as Armed Group Attacks Continue

A young Palestinian boy drags scrap metal against the backdrop of destroyed buildings in Nuseirat on November 2, 2026. (AFP)
A young Palestinian boy drags scrap metal against the backdrop of destroyed buildings in Nuseirat on November 2, 2026. (AFP)

Humanitarian and security conditions are worsening in Gaza as Israel tightens restrictions on border crossings and the movement of people and goods, while armed groups backed by the Israeli military press ahead with attacks on the ground.

In a surprise move on Tuesday morning, Israel informed Egyptian and Palestinian coordination officials that it planned to block goods and humanitarian aid arriving through the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza, citing alleged smuggling of banned items, mainly cigarettes, tobacco products and other goods Israel prohibits from entering the enclave.

Israel also abruptly turned back more than 20 patients and 35 accompanying relatives who had left for medical treatment through Rafah, citing security concerns. Hours later, the patients were told they could travel after all.

Israel also maintains tight control over shipments entering through the Kerem Shalom crossing. Supplies remain below levels seen before the latest crisis, which halted the flow of goods into Gaza for a full week before limited deliveries resumed about 10 days ago.

The restrictions have triggered "severe shortages of essential goods, record price increases and a near-total collapse in purchasing power," the Gaza Chamber of Commerce said.

Maher al-Tabbaa, the chamber's director, said Israel was allowing only about 200 types of goods into Gaza under stringent restrictions.

Prices have surged by 500% to 600%, while those of goods barred by Israel have soared by between 2,000% and 3,000%, he told a press briefing.

Armed groups raid displacement camp

Gaza's worsening humanitarian crisis has been matched by deteriorating security, with Israeli airstrikes continuing alongside operations by armed groups based in areas occupied by Israeli forces.

Under a ceasefire agreement based on a plan proposed by US President Donald Trump, a conceptual boundary known as the "yellow line" separates Israeli-occupied territory in eastern Gaza, covering more than 60% of the enclave, from areas to the west controlled by Hamas and other Palestinian factions.

In an operation described as mirroring Israeli military tactics, armed men infiltrated a displacement camp near Abu Hamid roundabout in central-eastern Khan Younis shortly after midnight between Sunday and Monday, under the cover of Israeli drones flying overhead.

The gunmen entered on foot before reinforcements arrived in four-wheel-drive vehicles, allowing them to seize control of the camp and surround it.

They then ordered several people to surrender over loudspeakers, only to discover that none of those sought were there, a source on the ground told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Three sources and eyewitnesses living near the camp said the gunmen searched tents and opened fire, terrifying residents, particularly women and children.

They abducted more than 35 members of the Barbakh family, including teenage boys, and took them to areas under their control in eastern Khan Younis, the sources said.

More than 10 hours later, the armed groups released all but four of those abducted, keeping the four young men for questioning.

A source on the ground quoted some of those released as saying they had been interrogated by Israeli officers, not the armed men who had handed them over to Israeli forces stationed nearby.

A source from a Palestinian faction in Khan Younis said the raid was intended to "spread chaos and flex the muscles" of armed groups backed by the Israeli military.

Another source said the operation could be a prelude to an Israeli advance aimed at expanding the territory under its control and pushing the yellow line farther west.

The boundary lies just a few hundred meters from the camp, the source said, pointing to similar Israeli advances in other parts of Gaza.

Arab World

Fears of Armed Factions Spiraling Out of Control in Renewed War Spur Iraqi Contacts

Members of Iraq's pro-Iran paramilitary group Kataib Hezbollah gather in a mourning procession for one of their comrades who was killed the previous day in a strike in Basra, during the funeral in Baghdad on April 8, 2026. (AFP)
Members of Iraq's pro-Iran paramilitary group Kataib Hezbollah gather in a mourning procession for one of their comrades who was killed the previous day in a strike in Basra, during the funeral in Baghdad on April 8, 2026. (AFP)
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Fears of Armed Factions Spiraling Out of Control in Renewed War Spur Iraqi Contacts

Members of Iraq's pro-Iran paramilitary group Kataib Hezbollah gather in a mourning procession for one of their comrades who was killed the previous day in a strike in Basra, during the funeral in Baghdad on April 8, 2026. (AFP)
Members of Iraq's pro-Iran paramilitary group Kataib Hezbollah gather in a mourning procession for one of their comrades who was killed the previous day in a strike in Basra, during the funeral in Baghdad on April 8, 2026. (AFP)

Iraqi officials fear Iran-backed armed factions could spiral out of control if fighting with the United States resumes, as conflicting reports of an airstrike on a security facility in eastern Iraq, denied by Baghdad, add to tensions.

A senior source in the ruling Coordination Framework alliance said the government was working to keep Iraq out of a new conflict by negotiating directly with armed factions to persuade them to remain neutral.

The talks are being conducted through influential intermediaries, the source said.

Baghdad is also deploying security forces to poorly controlled areas and remote locations outside major cities, as it recently did in Basra province, to prevent armed groups from attacking neighboring countries if war breaks out.

But the source, who is familiar with internal discussions on the regional escalation, cast doubt on the government's ability to contain the fallout from a war.

He said Baghdad could struggle to rein in Iran-backed factions or safeguard Iraqi oil exports, which have recently recovered to more than 3 million barrels per day.

Even before regional tensions intensified, the government was struggling to resolve the issue of weapons held by armed factions. Doubts over its disarmament strategy have deepened since a deadline to bring those weapons under state control was pushed back from Sept. 30 to June 30, 2027.

The Coordination Framework had been negotiating with the factions through a political committee of senior political figures.

But amid mounting fears of renewed war, reports have circulated widely that Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi opened a separate channel of communication with the armed groups, bypassing the committee.

A political source told Asharq Al-Awsat that Iran-backed factions may have updated their lists of targets inside Iraq and across the region as the prospect of war grows.

Saud al-Saedi, a lawmaker from the Hoquq Movement, the political wing of the Kataib Hezbollah faction, denied that al-Zaidi had personally intervened in the negotiations.

Saedi told reporters that the Coordination Framework had reached understandings with the factions on reorganizing their weapons.

The plan called for a joint committee bringing together representatives of the factions, the government, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and the Coordination Framework, he said.

But al-Zaidi has yet to sign the agreement, Saedi added, suggesting that the prime minister was under US pressure.

US warning

Meanwhile, Washington has stepped up pressure on Baghdad over weapons outside state control, according to political sources cited by local news agency Shafaq News.

The sources said Steven Fagin, the US charge d'affaires in Iraq, had delivered direct warnings to government and political figures in recent days, stressing that Washington was closely monitoring efforts to bring weapons under state control.

Failure to honor commitments or produce a concrete plan to end the presence of weapons beyond state control by June 30 could prompt Washington to designate Iraq a "state sponsor of terrorism" and impose sanctions and other measures, the sources quoted Fagin as warning.

As Baghdad remains silent on the possibility of renewed war, armed factions have largely adopted the same approach.

But the Ansar Allah al-Awfiya movement, an ally of former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, broke that silence last Friday, warning Washington against using Iraqi territory or airspace to attack Iran while pledging neutrality if war erupts.

The movement's spokesperson, Ali al-Fatlawi, said it would remain neutral as long as Iraq was not used as a launchpad for attacks on neighboring countries.

He also urged Washington not to violate Iraqi airspace.

"Any violation of Iraqi sovereignty will prompt a response from the movement," Fatlawi said, adding that its leadership would decide the nature of that response according to the circumstances.

In recent days, armed factions and affiliated media outlets reported dozens of incursions into Iraqi airspace by US warplanes and reconnaissance aircraft.

The claims coincided with western media reports that US and Israeli fighter jets had conducted exercises over Iraq and several other countries in the region, simulating strikes on Iran.

On Tuesday, media reports said a Popular Mobilization Forces facility in the eastern province of Diyala had come under air attack.

But Lieutenant General Saad Maan, an official with Iraq's Security Media Cell, dismissed the reports.

"There is no truth to reports of any attack or airstrike in the province," he said in a brief statement.

Arab World

Israeli Detonations Reshape South Lebanon Villages, Deepen Their Isolation

Israeli tanks and military vehicles on a road between destroyed houses in southern Lebanon near the border with northern Israel, April 29, 2026. (AFP)
Israeli tanks and military vehicles on a road between destroyed houses in southern Lebanon near the border with northern Israel, April 29, 2026. (AFP)
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Israeli Detonations Reshape South Lebanon Villages, Deepen Their Isolation

Israeli tanks and military vehicles on a road between destroyed houses in southern Lebanon near the border with northern Israel, April 29, 2026. (AFP)
Israeli tanks and military vehicles on a road between destroyed houses in southern Lebanon near the border with northern Israel, April 29, 2026. (AFP)

Israeli forces are blasting homes, farmland, roads and bridges across southern Lebanon, leaving villages stripped of familiar landmarks and raising fears that residents may never be able to return.

The destruction extends far beyond military positions and hilltops, according to scientific data and a study of war damage. A military expert says the pattern points to an Israeli effort to reshape the region's population and landscape.

Officials at Lebanon's National Council for Scientific Research told Asharq Al-Awsat that 2,057 Israeli explosions were recorded between April 17 and Oct. 29, reflecting the scale of Israeli military operations. No published breakdown of their geographic distribution or counting methodology was available.

An earlier scientific report published by the council documented 1,731 mining and demolition operations in southern Lebanon between March 2 and September 10, including 1,128 after the June 26 “framework agreement”.

The daily average surged from 5.15 operations before the agreement to about 15 afterward.

Homes and bridges in ruins

More than 90,000 homes across Lebanon had been damaged or destroyed by mid-June, according to preliminary estimates cited in a study by Information International. The figure was not limited to southern Lebanon.

The study documented seven bridges completely destroyed and partial damage to the Qasmieh Bridge, among eight bridges targeted along routes linking the area south of the Litani River to surrounding areas.

Citing the International Organization for Migration, the study said 499,784 people remained internally displaced as of July 1, highlighting the struggle to restore stability even as returns began.

The National Council for Scientific Research also documented a massive blast in Majdal Zoun on June 28 and ground waves triggered by an explosion in Shaqif overnight on July 30-31, equivalent to a magnitude 3.8 earthquake, according to the National Center for Geophysics.

A separate explosion in Ali al-Taher on September 10 coincided with a magnitude 4.1 seismic event recorded by the US Geological Survey.

The Shaqif blast raised concerns over the historic Beaufort castle, which has temporary enhanced protection and is listed among the "Castles of Jabal Amel" on the World Heritage List.

The remains of a home destroyed by the Israeli army in the village of Beit Lif, southern Lebanon, April 22, 2026. (AFP)

'Eliminating the foundations of life'

Retired Staff Brigadier General Khalil al-Gemayel described the destruction as a systematic scorched-earth policy designed to wipe out residential communities, deprive them of the basic necessities of life and prevent residents from returning.

He said the operations were paving the way for a prolonged Israeli presence in areas under its control.

The council's tally of 2,057 explosions since April was consistent with the scale of Israeli operations on the ground, Gemayel said, pointing to almost daily blasts targeting not only military positions and hilltops but also homes, neighborhoods, buildings and infrastructure.

The destruction was particularly concentrated around major population centers such as Bint Jbeil, Khiam and Aita al-Shaab, as well as villages including Zawtar al-Sharqiyeh, he said.

Gemayel said the pattern closely followed Israeli troop deployments, with built-up areas and population centers facing Israeli positions bearing the brunt of the demolitions.

The operations went beyond immediate military objectives and were intended to bring about sweeping demographic and environmental changes, he added.

"Destroying homes, infrastructure, vegetation and farmland effectively eliminates the foundations of life, rather than merely preventing military use of these areas," he said.

Gemayel compared the operations to Israel's actions in Syria's Golan Heights after its occupation in 1967, when villages were demolished and cleared.

He said the same approach was now being repeated in southern Lebanon, with the landscape altered and the traces of residential communities erased.

Even a political settlement and Israeli withdrawal would not guarantee a swift return of the displaced, he warned.

Rebuilding communities could take years, perhaps decades, with some residents potentially unable even to locate their former homes after entire streets, buildings and village landmarks disappeared.

A general view shows homes and structures demolished by the Israeli army in the village of Beit Lif, southern Lebanon, April 22, 2026. (AFP)

Imposing a new reality

Gemayel said the demolitions were concentrated in several areas along built-up stretches extending roughly 1,000 meters in front of Israeli positions, targeting buildings and residential communities facing deployed troops.

He identified Majdal Zoun and Mansouri, along with areas around Srebbine, Yater, Beit Yahoun, Hadatha, Baraachit and Aita al-Jabal, as examples.

He said Israeli aerial surveillance and other technological capabilities often allowed its forces to distinguish civilian from military movements, but that had not stopped the destruction from spreading.

Gemayel said the ultimate aim was to prevent residents from returning to areas occupied by Israeli forces or facing their positions by destroying villages and residential communities capable of sustaining everyday life.

The scale and pattern of destruction suggested Israel intended to maintain a long-term presence while imposing a new geographic and demographic reality that could prove difficult to reverse even after military operations ended, he said.