Semiofficial news agencies in Iran published a chart Thursday suggesting the country’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard put sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz during the war, in a message that may be intended to pressure the US as uncertainty hangs over a days-old two-week ceasefire and further negotiations are expected in Pakistan.
The shaky ceasefire has been largely holding between the US, Israel and Iran, although Tehran and Washington have offered vastly different explanations of the initial terms, The Associated Press said.
Israel insists the agreement does not apply to their war against Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and have escalated deadly strikes there, leading Iran to claim it is violating the deal. Meanwhile, Iran said it had won agreement that it would control the Strait of Hormuz, charge tolls and enrich uranium — while Trump said the deal called for the strait to be reopened and Iran to hand over its uranium stockpile.
The chart of the Strait of Hormuz was released by the ISNA news agency, as well as Tasnim, which is believed to be close to the Guard. They showed a large circle marked “danger zone” in Farsi over the Traffic Separation Scheme, which was the route ships take through the strait, the narrow mouth of the Arabian Gulf through which 20% of all oil and natural gas traded once passed.
The chart suggested ships travel further north through waters closer to Iran’s mainland near Larak Island, a route that some ships were observed taking during the war. It was dated from Feb. 28 until Thursday, April 9, and it was unclear if the Guard had cleared any mining on the route since then.
Oil rose again to above $97 a barrel and Asian stocks were trading lower Thursday on skepticism over the ceasefire. Brent crude, the international standard, was up 2.9% to $97.46 per barrel. It had fallen briefly to below $92 following the temporary ceasefire announcement. Benchmark US crude was 3.7% higher Thursday at $97.94 per barrel.
Ship-tracking data from Kpler showed only four vessels with their Automatic Identification System trackers on passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, the first day of the ceasefire. However, that does not include so-called “dark fleet” vessels, which travel with their AIS trackers turned off. Many of those “dark fleet” ships carry sanctioned Iranian crude oil out to the open market.
Trump says US forces will remain in the area
US President Donald Trump posted a statement insisting that his surge of warships and troops will remain around Iran “until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.”
Trump’s comments on his Truth Social platform appeared to be a way to pressure Iran.
“If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the ‘Shootin’ Starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before,” Trump wrote.
He also insisted Iran would not be able to build nuclear weapons and “the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE.”
The US and Iran both claimed victory after reaching the ceasefire agreement, and world leaders expressed relief. But more drones and missiles hit Iran and Gulf Arab countries after the deal was announced.
Israel also intensified its attacks on the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon on Wednesday, hitting commercial and residential areas in Beirut. At least 182 people were killed in the deadliest day of fighting there. First responders searched overnight for missing people still under the rubble after the deadly Israeli strikes.
A fragile ceasefire
The violence threatened to scuttle what US Vice President JD Vance called a “fragile” deal.
Iran's parliament speaker said Wednesday that planned talks were “unreasonable” because Washington had broken three of Tehran’s 10 conditions for an end to the fighting. In a social media post, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf objected to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, an alleged drone incursion into Iranian airspace after the ceasefire took effect and US refusal to accept any Iranian enrichment capabilities in a final agreement.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted that an end to the war in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire deal, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump said the truce did not cover Lebanon. When the deal was announced, the prime minister of Pakistan, which served as a mediator, said in a social media post that it applied to “everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere.”
A New York-based think tank warned the ceasefire “hovers on the verge of collapse.”
The Soufan Center said Israel's strikes on Lebanon on Wednesday added to the risk the deal would fall apart.
“Even if Lebanon was formally outside the deal, the scale of Israel’s strikes was likely to be viewed as escalatory, nonetheless,” it wrote in an analysis published Thursday. “Israel’s strikes can be understood both as an effort to drive a wedge between Iran and its proxies and as a response to being allegedly sidelined in the original ceasefire discussions.”
Peace talks expected in Pakistan
The White House said that Vice President JD Vance would lead the US delegation to talks in Islamabad aimed at ending the war, which are set to start Saturday.
Iran’s negotiating team will arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night, the Iranian ambassador there said.
Reza Amiri Moghadam wrote on X that the “Iranian delegation arrives tonight in Islamabad for serious talks based on 10 points proposed by Iran,” without identifying who was on the Iranian team.
Those points include Iran enriching uranium, maintaining its control of the Strait of Hormuz and other issues that have been nonstarters in the past for Trump. The White House has repeatedly described the 10 points issued by Iran as false.
Moghadam wrote that the Iranians would come to Islamabad despite “skepticism of Iranian public opinion due to repeated ceasefire violations by Israeli regime to sabotage the diplomatic initiative,” likely referring to Israel’s strikes on Lebanon, which Israel and the US have said wasn’t included in the shaky ceasefire.
