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Euro Zone Bond Yields Rise After US-Iran Talks Collapse

A car drives along a road during sunset near Berlin, Germany, 09 April 2026, a few days after Iran and the US announced a two-week conditional ceasefire to halt military operations. (EPA)
A car drives along a road during sunset near Berlin, Germany, 09 April 2026, a few days after Iran and the US announced a two-week conditional ceasefire to halt military operations. (EPA)
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Euro Zone Bond Yields Rise After US-Iran Talks Collapse

A car drives along a road during sunset near Berlin, Germany, 09 April 2026, a few days after Iran and the US announced a two-week conditional ceasefire to halt military operations. (EPA)
A car drives along a road during sunset near Berlin, Germany, 09 April 2026, a few days after Iran and the US announced a two-week conditional ceasefire to halt military operations. (EPA)

Euro zone government bond ‌yields edged up on Monday towards recent peaks after the United States and Iran failed to secure a deal to end the war, pushing oil prices higher, fueling inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of European Central Bank rate hikes. 

Brent crude futures climbed above $100 a barrel as the US Navy prepared to block ships to and from Iran via the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could restrict Iranian oil exports. 

Germany’s 10-year government bond yield rose 1.5 basis points (bps) to 3.06%. It reached 3.13% in late March, its highest level since June 2011. 

Analysts argued that ‌while the truce ‌was more fragile after the weekend, both parties ‌were ⁠unlikely to let ⁠full-blown war resume. 

Money markets priced in an ECB deposit facility rate at 2.69.% by year-end, implying two hikes and a 75% chance of a third move, from around 2.60% late on Friday. 

They also indicated a 45% chance of a rate increase in April from 25% late on Friday. The deposit facility rate is currently at 2%. 

“The temporary truce briefly ⁠reduced immediate tail risks, but the failure of negotiations ‌over the weekend has underscored that the ‌constraints that matter most for near-term (energy) pricing remain unresolved,” said Tobias Keller, ‌investment strategist at UniCredit. 

“Damaged infrastructure, higher insurance and freight costs and persistent ‌logistical frictions imply that any easing in physical tightness will be slow and uneven,” he added. 

Germany’s two-year yields, more sensitive to expectations for policy rates, were up 4 bps at 2.62%. They reached 2.771% in late March, its highest ‌level since July 2024. 

Italy’s 10-year government bond yields rose 3.5 bps to 3.86%. They reached 4.142% ⁠in late March, ⁠the highest since July 2024. 

The yield gap of Italian government bonds versus Bunds was at 79 bps. It was at 63 bps before the US-Israeli war with Iran began and hit 103.62 during the conflict, the highest since June 20, 2025. 

“We would probably need to see a more significant escalation for BTP-Bund spreads to test the March highs again,” said Hauke Siemssen, rate strategist at Commerzbank. 

“BTPs should also underperform OATs (French government bonds) again this week as they are more susceptible to energy prices, while we expect the spread to re-tighten over the long term,” he added. 

The French spread was at 64.50 bps from 58 bps before the conflict. Fitch confirmed on Friday A+ rating with outlook stable. 

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Middle East War Reshaping National Energy Strategies, Says IEA

An empty fuel station, as India faces rising oil prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Halvad, Gujarat, India, May 22, 2026. (Reuters)
An empty fuel station, as India faces rising oil prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Halvad, Gujarat, India, May 22, 2026. (Reuters)
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Middle East War Reshaping National Energy Strategies, Says IEA

An empty fuel station, as India faces rising oil prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Halvad, Gujarat, India, May 22, 2026. (Reuters)
An empty fuel station, as India faces rising oil prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Halvad, Gujarat, India, May 22, 2026. (Reuters)

The Middle East war is pushing countries to open new supply routes and turn to domestic resources to tide over the world's biggest energy crisis, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.

"We are in the midst of the largest energy security crisis the world has ever faced -- and I believe this will reshape investment strategies globally, with parallels to the major changes the energy world witnessed after the oil shocks of the 1970s," said IEA executive director Fatih Birol

"We are already seeing intensified efforts by both producer and consumer countries to diversify trade routes and energy sources -- such as advancing new pipelines and other supply infrastructure, on the one hand, and turning more to domestically available resources, on the other," he added in the World Energy Investment report by the energy agency of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The IEA estimates that global energy investment will reach $3.4 trillion in 2026, slightly higher than the previous year, with around $2.2 trillion devoted to power grids, storage, low-emission fuels, nuclear, renewables, energy efficiency and electrification.

Alongside this, around $1.2 trillion is expected to be invested in oil, natural gas and coal.

It nevertheless expects oil investment to decline for the third straight year in 2026, falling below $500 billion despite rising crude prices.

This is due to uncertainty over how long higher prices will last, project lead times, supply constraints and the tightening offshore rigs market, which are limiting short-term investment outside the Middle East.

By contrast, investment in natural gas is "projected to rise to $330 billion, the highest level in a decade, supported by a wave of new LNG export projects, particularly in the United States and Qatar," IEA said.

At the same time, oil-importing countries are turning to energy sources available domestically, notably renewables, nuclear and coal, the report said.

The IEA estimates that investment in renewables should reach around $665 billion in 2026, including $365 billion for solar alone.

Investment in nuclear energy and is set to exceed $80 billion annually while investment in coal should reach $180 billion -- the highest in 10 years, it said.

China alone will account for nearly 70 percent of global coal supply spending, and some Asian countries may seek to extend the operation of their existing coal-fired power plants in order to strengthen their energy security.

The IEA said investment in electricity supply and infrastructure is expected to reach nearly $1.6 trillion in 2026, including around $550 billion for power grids, while investment in battery storage should exceed $100 billion.

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ECB Chief Economist Sees Persistent Impact on Inflation from Iran War

The Euro currency symbol is seen prior to a press conference after an ECB's governing council meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP)
The Euro currency symbol is seen prior to a press conference after an ECB's governing council meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP)
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ECB Chief Economist Sees Persistent Impact on Inflation from Iran War

The Euro currency symbol is seen prior to a press conference after an ECB's governing council meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP)
The Euro currency symbol is seen prior to a press conference after an ECB's governing council meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP)

The energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict will likely have a persistent impact on inflation even if there is a quick solution to the war, the European Central Bank's chief economist, Philip Lane, said on Thursday.

While oil prices historically tended to revert to original levels after a burst of increases, the current episode may be different as energy costs may stay elevated with countries restocking inventory or diversifying their energy mix, he said.

"We had ‌an overnight, fairly ‌quick and big decline in global oil ‌supply, ⁠which has been ⁠masked until now by inventories," Lane said at a conference hosted by the BOJ and its think tank in Tokyo.

"Even if the initial energy shock starts to reverse, the second round (effects) will be with us for a while," he said.

With the energy shock pushing up prices, financial markets have fully priced in ⁠two hikes in the ECB's 2% deposit ‌rate and see a roughly 50% ‌chance of a third move over the next year. Economists are more ‌cautious and see just two hikes, followed by a cut ‌in mid-2027, a Reuters poll showed.

Lane said there could be some policy lessons from past energy shocks, such as that rising energy costs could push up inflation abruptly and cause "all sorts of non-linear" mechanisms ‌that broaden price hikes.

"But it's not the same non-linearity we had four years ago," when ⁠supply disruptions ⁠from the Ukraine war and strong demand from the COVID re-opening pushed up inflation, he said.

Central banks must acknowledge any substantial shocks and their potential impact on inflation, but avoid overreacting in setting monetary policy, Lane said.

"You have to be skillful in terms of looking at monetary transmission, consumer confidence and all these different mechanisms," he said.

While some inflationary pressures from a supply shock do calm down over time, it was important for central banks to make sure "there's no persistent belief in the population or among price-setting sectors that inflation is going to be too high for too long," he said.

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Dollar Firms to One-Week High as Gulf Tensions Flare, Yen Nears Intervention Zone

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
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Dollar Firms to One-Week High as Gulf Tensions Flare, Yen Nears Intervention Zone

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)

The dollar firmed to a one-week high on Thursday after Middle East tensions ratcheted up following fresh US strikes on Iran, while the yen softened toward a level that triggered central bank intervention last month.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they targeted a US airbase after what they described as an early morning US attack near Bandar Abbas airport, Tasnim news agency reported, while Kuwait's army said its air defenses were intercepting hostile ‌missile and ‌drone threats.

That followed news that the US military ‌carried ⁠out new strikes targeting ⁠an Iranian drone operation that it said posed a threat to US forces and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices rebounded and the safe-haven dollar steadied as hopes of a swift resolution to the war faded, with investors now increasingly expecting the greenback to break higher as the Federal Reserve shifts its focus to battling inflation amid elevated energy prices.

"Geopolitics and ⁠the subsequent inflation risks remain a key concern," Alex ‌Saunders, Citi's head of global quant ‌macro strategy, wrote. "We continue to see a trim in the USD underweight."

The euro was 0.2% ‌lower at $1.1600, while the pound was down nearly 0.3% at $1.3392.

The risk-sensitive ‌Australian dollar weakened 0.4% to $0.7111to a one-week low, and the New Zealand dollar was down 0.3% at $0.58831.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six major peers, strengthened 0.17% to 99.464, near its highest level since ‌May 21.

Markets will now look ahead to today's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE ⁠deflator, which ⁠will help shape the broader interest rate outlook.

The yen weakened to as far as 159.610 per dollar on Thursday, the lowest since April 30 and within sight of the 160 level that triggered intervention by Japanese authorities last month.

That intervention bought policymakers some breathing room, but questions linger over its lasting impact, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.

"The broader question is whether it was worth it for what essentially amounts to just a single month's relief. And furthermore, will authorities have the stomach to write a similar-sized cheque if the 160 level is breached again in the coming sessions?" he said.

Markets are pricing a roughly 70% chance of a quarter-point interest rate rise at the BOJ's June 15–16 policy meeting, LSEG data showed.