Separatists in Alberta are preparing to submit a petition on Monday that they say has enough signatures to force a referendum on independence for the oil-rich Canadian province.
Polls indicate the pro-independence camp remains a minority among Alberta's five million people, but has hit a historic high of roughly 30 percent.
Alberta separatists are also closer than ever to forcing a referendum, riding momentum fueled by intensifying grievances over Ottawa's control of the provincial oil industry.
They have also undeniably gotten a boost from the return to power of US President Donald Trump.
After launching a petition in January, Stay Free Alberta, the group coordinating the independence push, had until the beginning of May to collect 178,000 signatures to force a referendum.
The group's leader, Mitch Sylvestre, expressed confidence the group will succeed.
"We will have the required signatures to trigger the referendum with a comfortable buffer," Sylvestre told AFP Thursday.
The separatists plan to present their list to provincial officials in the capital Edmonton on Monday.
- 'Permanent change' -
Alberta's First Nations have filed a court challenge, arguing independence would violate their treaty rights, a case that could render a referendum illegal.
But even if the vote never happens, or the separatists ultimately lose, many believe the process has left Canada permanently changed.
Michael Wagner is an independent historian and long-standing supporter of Albertan independence.
"Even if we lose the referendum, (this) is not going to just disappear," he told AFP. "I think this is going to be a permanent change in our political culture."
Jason Kenney, a conservative federalist former Alberta premier, agreed.
If the independence camp gets 20-35 percent support in a referendum, "it will turn the separatist movement from a marginal fringe into a real factor in our politics that will be disruptive for a long time to come," he told an event last month.
- 'Tipping point' -
Alberta joined the Canadian confederation in 1905 and resentments towards eastern political leaders in Ontario and Quebec fueled marginal separatist movements at various points over the last century.
But Wagner said separatism gathered real pace in protest against former prime minister Pierre Trudeau's 1980 National Energy Program, which broadened Ottawa's control over the oil industry.
The program included price controls for domestic oil sales and new taxes giving Ottawa more revenue from Alberta's oil.
Trudeau's government argued the measures protected Canadians following the global oil price shocks of the 1970s.
Wagner said the program was considered an attack in Alberta and called it a "game-changer" which entrenched the idea of independence.
Fast-forward 35 years, Trudeau's son Justin is elected prime minister with a climate-conscious agenda reviled by many in Alberta.
Through Trudeau's decade in power, Albertans accused his Liberal government of demonizing oil production and stifling investments in the sector, especially for pipeline capacity.
Mark Carney's 2025 election was "a tipping point", Wagner said.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had a huge polling lead in early 2025.
"It was fully expected he would be our hero. He would rescue us from the Liberal government. When the polls started turning for Carney, and then Carney actually won, the disappointment here was so dramatic," Wagner said.
- 51st state? -
Trump has discussed annexing Canada and weakening it economically, but the US role in Alberta's current separatist effort is disputed.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent drew attention in January when he said the US and Alberta were "natural partners."
Some secessionists insist Alberta's future lies in union with Washington.
But Sylvestre's legal advisor Jeffrey Rath, who says he has met several times with top State Department officials on future Alberta-US ties, rejects statehood.
"The people in our movement are not interested in freeing themselves from the clutches of the federal government... just to put ourselves under yet another government 3,500 miles away," he told the right-wing True North media outlet.
But, he argued, Trump's support will be crucial to stabilizing Alberta as it breaks away from Canada.
For Wagner, "51st state people have always been a very small minority."
"Most Alberta independence supporters are actually patriotic Canadians who have just been frustrated."
