Alberta separatists said Monday they have formally submitted almost 302,000 signatures to try to trigger a referendum on the province leaving Canada.
The group needed 178,000 signatures to force the province to consider such a vote.
The question of separation could go on a provincewide ballot as early as October, as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said she would move forward if enough names are gathered and verified. Smith has said she personally does not support the oil-rich province leaving Canada.
A “yes” vote would not trigger independence automatically. Negotiations with the federal government would have to take place and Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, said some Indigenous groups who are already using the courts to prevent an independence referendum would use venues including the courts to stop independence from happening.
Mitch Sylvestre, the head of Stay Free Alberta, arrived at the Elections Alberta office in Edmonton on Monday leading a convoy of seven trucks to deliver the names.
“This day is historic in Alberta history,” Sylvestre said. “It’s the first step to the next step — we’ve gotten by Round 3 and now we’re in the Stanley Cup final.”
He said most papers were handled five times to verify the signatures.
More than 300 supporters gathered, waving the provincial flag and chanting “Alberta strong.”
However, the petition could face another hurdle this week as an Edmonton, Alberta, judge is expected to rule on a court challenge launched by a group of Alberta First Nations who say Alberta separation would violate treaty rights.
Smith has accused previous federal Liberal governments of introducing legislation that hamstrings Alberta’s ability to produce and export oil, which she said has cost the province billions of dollars. She also said she doesn’t want the federal government meddling in provincial issues.
Prime Minister Mark Carney's federal government did not immediately respond to the development.
Béland, the political science professor at McGill, said a referendum is likely to lose.
“Right now, support for independence in Alberta is rather low. Less than 30% and much lower if we only focus on hard core supporters. And the odds of a victory of the pro-independence camp appear to be low at this stage," he said.
Béland also said considering recent news of a large data breach involving an Alberta separatist group, the formal verification process is especially crucial to make sure the signatures are authentic.
“Mark Carney is indeed popular, even in Alberta. The push for independence by some Albertans predates his prime ministership and it’s related to economic, fiscal, and political grievances about the seemingly unfair treatment of Alberta by the federal government," he said. “These concerns increased during the Justin Trudeau years but they have peaked and even declined since he left office.”
