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Oil Falls, Asian Stocks Climb on Hopes of US-Iran Hormuz Deal

The crude oil tanker Idemitsu Maru, owned by a subsidiary of Idemitsu Kosan, sails through Ise Bay near Chita City in Aichi Prefecture on May 25, 2026, after becoming the first crude tanker bound for Japan to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran conflict began. (Photo by JIJI Press / AFP) / Japan OUT
The crude oil tanker Idemitsu Maru, owned by a subsidiary of Idemitsu Kosan, sails through Ise Bay near Chita City in Aichi Prefecture on May 25, 2026, after becoming the first crude tanker bound for Japan to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran conflict began. (Photo by JIJI Press / AFP) / Japan OUT
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Oil Falls, Asian Stocks Climb on Hopes of US-Iran Hormuz Deal

The crude oil tanker Idemitsu Maru, owned by a subsidiary of Idemitsu Kosan, sails through Ise Bay near Chita City in Aichi Prefecture on May 25, 2026, after becoming the first crude tanker bound for Japan to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran conflict began. (Photo by JIJI Press / AFP) / Japan OUT
The crude oil tanker Idemitsu Maru, owned by a subsidiary of Idemitsu Kosan, sails through Ise Bay near Chita City in Aichi Prefecture on May 25, 2026, after becoming the first crude tanker bound for Japan to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran conflict began. (Photo by JIJI Press / AFP) / Japan OUT

Oil prices fell and Asian stocks climbed on Monday over hopes a deal between the United States and Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz could be brokered.

The price of North Sea Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate slipped close to five percent to $99.41 and $92.49 a barrel respectively, said AFP.

The United States and Iran appear closer than ever to a deal that would end the war that has ravaged the Middle East since late February, sending energy prices soaring and stoking global inflation.

But sticking points in their negotiations have tempered hopes of a swift resolution to restore the transit of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he had informed US negotiators "not to rush into a deal".

"The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side," a post to Trump's official Truth Social account said.

Iran's Tasnim news agency said based on their information key clauses of a possible agreement remained unresolved.

One of the main sticking points has been whether Tehran is willing to hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

The release of Iran's frozen assets held under longstanding US sanctions and whether Lebanon, repeatedly targeted by Israeli strikes, will be included in any peace deal are also key issues.

Markets across Asia climbed in early trade on hopes Washington and Tehran will be able to overcome these hurdles.

Tokyo soared more than three percent in early trade on Monday, while Hong Kong and Seoul were closed for public holidays.

Shanghai inched upwards, with Taipei, Manila, Bangkok, Jakarta, Singapore, Sydney and Wellington also climbing.

Kuala Lumpur was down 0.1 percent.

"The weekend news flow has once again focused on the prospects for a negotiated deal between the US and Iran," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

"According to reports from Donald Trump, a memorandum of understanding has been 'largely negotiated', with details to be announced at some stage soon, although there appears to be limited urgency," Weston said.

Investors will also be keeping an eye on how the US Federal Reserve and its new chief Chair Kevin Warsh react to Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data this week, as well as European inflation metrics.

"The inflation story remains central to the entire setup," said SPI Asset Management analyst Stephen Innes.

"Investors will receive another critical read on Thursday with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.

"After several hotter-than-expected consumer and producer inflation reports earlier this month, markets are increasingly concerned that elevated oil prices and supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict are beginning to seep into the broader inflation pipeline."

The conflict erupted after the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, and Iran responded with missile and drone attacks across the region.

The United States and Iran have observed a ceasefire since April 8 while mediators push for a negotiated settlement, although Tehran has imposed controls on Gulf shipping and Washington has blockaded Iran's ports.

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Business

US Economy Expanded at Solid 2.1% Pace in January-March, Government Says

President Donald Trump stands on stage after speaking at the opening of the Great American State Fair on the National Mall, Wednesday, June 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
President Donald Trump stands on stage after speaking at the opening of the Great American State Fair on the National Mall, Wednesday, June 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
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US Economy Expanded at Solid 2.1% Pace in January-March, Government Says

President Donald Trump stands on stage after speaking at the opening of the Great American State Fair on the National Mall, Wednesday, June 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
President Donald Trump stands on stage after speaking at the opening of the Great American State Fair on the National Mall, Wednesday, June 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

The US economy expanded at a solid and unexpected 2.1% annual pace from January through March, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in its final estimate of first-quarter growth.

The growth in gross domestic product — the nation’s output of goods and services — marked a rebound from a sluggish 0.5% in the last three months of 2025 when a 43-day federal government shutdown weighed on the economy. Thursday’s numbers were an upgrade from of Commerce’s previous first-quarter estimate of 1.6% growth, The Associated Press reported.

Business investment surged, probably reflecting an investment boom in artificial intelligence. But consumer spending, which accounts for around 70% of US economic activity, fell sharply from fourth-quarter 2025 and from Commerce’s previous estimate in a sign that consumers may be cutting back in the face of higher gasoline prices caused by the war with Iran.

“It was unsettling to see consumer spending revised even lower,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in a commentary.

"Spending is likely to tick up in (the second quarter), but it’s worth watching carefully... It’s been a tough few months for American consumers, but most have been able to make it through. The question is how much relief is coming” as the US and Iran continue talks toward a resolution of the conflict.

Excluding housing, private investment jumped 10.6%, up from 2.4% in fourth-quarter 2025. In a sign of the AI boom, investment in information-processing equipment jumped at a 39.9% pace as companies scrambled to outfit their data centers. But Michael Reid, head of US economics at RBC Capital Markets, said before Thursday’s report came out that “unfortunately, it’s not a sustainable path.’’ He expects data center investment to lose momentum going forward.

Residential investment, weighed down by high interest rates, dropped 7.8% from January through March, biggest fall since late 2022 and the fifth straight quarterly decline.

The federal government's spending and investment rose at a 9.4% clip in the first quarter after dropping 16.6% in October-December 2025 largely because of the government shutdown.

Imports, which are subtracted from GDP, grew at a slower pace than last estimated from January through March. They still subtracted 1.49 percentage points from first-quarter growth, but that was down from a 2.59 percentage-point hit in the previous estimate and was a major factor in Thursday's upgrade.

The US economy — the world’s biggest — has continued to chug along despite the Iran energy shock. The American job market has proven especially resilient. Employers added an average 188,000 jobs a month from March through May after adding fewer than 10,000 a month in 2025 amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies.

Thursday’s report was the Commerce Department’s third and final estimate of first-quarter GDP growth. The first look at second-quarter economic growth is due July 30.

Business

Baghdad Urges OPEC to Raise Iraq's Production Quota

A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office / AFP)
A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office / AFP)
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Baghdad Urges OPEC to Raise Iraq's Production Quota

A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office / AFP)
A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office / AFP)

Baghdad has urged OPEC to increase Iraq's oil production quota, taking into account the damage done to its industry by its history of conflicts and the recent regional war, its oil ministry said Thursday.

Like other oil producers, Iraq, a founding member of OPEC, was greatly affected by the Middle East war, as it is hugely dependent on oil exports, which make up about 90 percent of its budget revenues.

Iraq's oil ministry said that reassessing production baselines was important "to ensure they are aligned with the sustainable production capacities of member countries", and with respect to "Iraq's unique security and economic circumstances".

OPEC has "responded by launching a process to reassess" its member states' capacities, the ministry said.

Following reports of a possible Iraqi exit from OPEC, oil ministry spokesperson Salim al-Rikabi told AFP that Iraq "has no intention of withdrawing from the organization and remains committed to its mechanisms".

But he added that the cartel "has to raise Iraq's production quota. Otherwise, a decision will have to be made about whether to stay or leave the organization".

Iraq has started increasing its production "in line with its capacities and needs", he said.

The ministry said that "reports suggesting that Iraq is considering ending its membership in OPEC do not reflect" the government's position.

Iraq's ministry said that any change would be decided within OPEC's existing framework, but noted there was a "high level of understanding" among members regarding Iraq's situation after decades of wars, sanctions, and recent attacks on the sector during the Middle East War.

All of these challenges will be considered to "ensure that Iraqi oil production reaches a fair level".

The Middle East war and Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz choked off shipments and prompted production cuts in key oil-producing countries including Iraq, shaking world energy markets.

During the conflict, several Iraqi oil fields were struck by drones mostly launched by pro-Iran armed groups.

Before the war, Iraq produced around four million barrels per day (bpd), and exported an average of 3.5 million bpd, mostly via Hormuz.

After the recent deal between Washington and Tehran to end the fighting, Iraq now hopes to return within two months to its previous production levels.

A former oil ministry official, who requested anonymity, warned against Iraq's exit from OPEC.

A "withdrawal would not serve the interests of Iraq", which is exclusively dependent on the oil sector, he said.

"I don't think that Iraq has really the incentives to leave OPEC," said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

Instead, he added, Iraq might be trying to apply pressure to "the capacity review exercise that the group is currently doing", which will serve as the basis for the 2027 quota.

Business

Egypt Overhauls Nitrogen Fertilizer Export Levy, Exempts High-grade Ammonium Nitrate

General view of part of Cairo (Reuters)
General view of part of Cairo (Reuters)
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Egypt Overhauls Nitrogen Fertilizer Export Levy, Exempts High-grade Ammonium Nitrate

General view of part of Cairo (Reuters)
General view of part of Cairo (Reuters)

Egypt has revamped its export tax regime for nitrogen fertilizers, replacing a fixed export tax with a 10% ad valorem duty on all nitrogenous fertilizer exports, while exempting high-purity ammonium nitrate, according to a decision published in the Official Gazette on Thursday.

The duty, calculated on the FOB invoice value, does not apply to pure ammonium nitrate with a nitrogen concentration exceeding 34.2%, or to shipments destined for productive enterprises in Egypt's free zones, Reuters reported.

The World Bank warned in its April Commodity Markets Outlook that global fertilizer prices could rise by more than 30% in 2026 due to conflict-related disruptions in the Middle East and logistical risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

The new decree replaces a flat $90-per-metric-ton tax introduced in May, tying the levy more directly to prevailing export prices, which have fallen since peaking in mid-April.
Egypt is the world's seventh-largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, according to LSEG data.