US and Iran Standoff at Sea: A Test of ‘Who Will Blink First’

A woman walks past an anti-US and anti-Israel mural depicting missiles hitting an aircraft carrier in Tehran on May 26, 2026. (AFP)
A woman walks past an anti-US and anti-Israel mural depicting missiles hitting an aircraft carrier in Tehran on May 26, 2026. (AFP)
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US and Iran Standoff at Sea: A Test of ‘Who Will Blink First’

A woman walks past an anti-US and anti-Israel mural depicting missiles hitting an aircraft carrier in Tehran on May 26, 2026. (AFP)
A woman walks past an anti-US and anti-Israel mural depicting missiles hitting an aircraft carrier in Tehran on May 26, 2026. (AFP)

Naval blockades, military history has shown, require patience. That is not the leading attribute of the officials in Washington.

“So when President Trump imposed a blockade of Iranian ports in April, the quick result he was looking for — a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic — was not in the cards. Wearing down an enemy with a blockade can take months or years, military experts say, and certainly not weeks,” reported the New York Times on Friday.

“Iran, with thousands of miles of land borders with seven neighbors, and a trade lifeline to its ally Russia across the Caspian Sea, had alternatives. The standoff persisted.”

“It’s difficult to rapidly bring an adversary to its knees with a blockade,” said Michael Connell, a specialist on the Iranian military at the Center for Naval Analyses in Virginia. “It’s the kind of thing that works well over time but it’s not a quick solution.”

Now, as the United States appears closer to a peace agreement with Iran, dropping the American blockade and reopening the strait are among the top priorities. If a deal can be reached, it would end one of the more unique naval standoffs in modern times: a tense stalemate that is neither peace nor raging conflict, between two mismatched adversaries who have exercised their leverage at sea.

It has featured an increasingly familiar pattern of conflict in an era of technological disruption — the ability of Iran’s speedboats, drones, mines and missiles to hold off America’s arsenal of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers with advanced fighter jets and populations the size of small towns.

The stalemate at sea has also underscored an old imperative of war. Swift victory without gaining and controlling territory on land is difficult to accomplish. A naval standoff is an attempt at economic and commercial strangulation on the water — seemingly bloodless but with hidden costs and risks for both sides, reported the NYT.

Indeed, Adm. Brad Cooper, the leader of US Central Command, which directs military operations in the Middle East, emphasized the value of economic pressure in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee last week. There had been “zero trade” in or out of Iranian ports, he said, “squeezing Iran economically and creating powerful leverage for the ongoing negotiations.”

Iran can also inflict economic pain. Because the world economy relies on a global supply chain, it means that Iran’s blocking of exports like fertilizer, helium and most importantly oil and gas has been felt worldwide.

“It has become a contest of wills, to see who blinks first,” Connell said.

A blockade is an act of war under international law; escalation, purposeful or not, is always a risk. That point was driven home on Wednesday when Iran launched four one-way attack drones over the Strait of Hormuz and the US military conducted airstrikes against a drone ground-control station in the port city of Bandar Abbas. It was the second time in three days that American forces conducted strikes in southern Iran, including against Iranian boats trying to emplace mines.

Vessels anchored at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, May 29, 2026. (Reuters)

The war at sea also imposes burdens. For Iran, the constriction of goods flowing in and out of the country puts enormous pressure on an economy that was reeling even before the war began — despite the alternative paths it has for trade.

“For the United States, sending ships to patrol waters far from home not only is expensive, but also risks overtaxing the ships and the crews. The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, for instance, limped home this month after a grueling 10 months in the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean, the Caribbean and the Red Sea, demonstrating how wear and tear can impose costs on a superpower overextending itself,” said the report.

“The US Navy can do some phenomenal things for a phenomenal amount of time,” said Mike Franken, a retired vice admiral who served as commodore of a destroyer squadron. “Around the edges things get tattered, and we’ve been at a very high op tempo.”

There are also strategic opportunities lost. The ships used to blockade Iran, and the sailors that operate them, cannot be used for other missions. Trump’s recent trip to China served as a reminder that East Asia remains a region of strategic significance, with allies like South Korea, Japan and especially Taiwan relying at least to some extent on a US naval deterrent.

Finally, having two adversaries in static tension creates the risk of accidental escalation, through a misreading of circumstances caused by anxiety, confusion or a lapse in concentration.

The US Central Command said this week it had redirected 111 commercial vessels and disabled four ships bound for Iranian ports thus far. Iranian forces have attacked American guided-missile destroyers crossing the Strait of Hormuz with missiles, drones and small boats. Central Command said the American warships successfully fended off the attack. Iran has also fired on ships from other countries trying to pass through the strait, causing some damage.

The United States has some two dozen warships involved in the blockade, which includes two aircraft carriers, the USS George H.W. Bush and the USS Abraham Lincoln, as well as guided-missile destroyers, amphibious ships, littoral combat ships and minesweepers, and refueling and supply ships to keep them provisioned and combat ready.

One precedent for the current stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz is the so-called Tanker War of the 1980s, when the war between Iran and Iraq spilled into the Gulf. Though the United States was not one of the combatants, it was drawn into the fray as it began to escort civilian oil tankers through the strait.

If the current standoff continues, the tactic has direct costs in terms of keeping ships in the region supplied with food, fuel and ammunition. There’s also the need to keep drones, helicopters, fighters and surveillance planes in the air. Sailors, Marines and airmen receive imminent danger pay.

For sailors, the combination of long stretches of dullness punctuated by moments of stress and tension can be a grind. “A blockade is a very boring thing to do,” said Andrew Lambert, professor of naval history in the department of war studies at King’s College. “You’re just hanging around waiting for something to happen.”

“There is a ripple effect from keeping large numbers of assets on station for protracted periods of time,” said James R. Holmes, chair of maritime strategy at the Naval War College.

He cited the USS Gerald R. Ford and its long deployment and posited that the carrier could encounter unexpected engineering problems when undergoing maintenance. While at sea, the ship endured mechanical problems with the gear that launches and recovers warplanes on the flight deck. A major fire destroyed the sleeping area for hundreds of sailors. There were also complaints about food shortages and delays in receiving mail that led to a decline in morale.

It will be difficult for the United States to reopen trade through the strait without coming to terms with Iran, Holmes said. “All Iran needs to keep its chokehold on the Strait is enough of its mosquito fleet, including shore-based missiles and drones, to keep shipping firms and insurers jittery,” he said. “And seldom if ever does a military campaign fully disarm an antagonist short of regime change.”

Lambert, the King’s College professor, said costs will mount as the standoff persists. “Because nothing particularly violent is happening on a large scale, the temptation to let it roll on is a real problem,” he said.

* Nicholas Kulish and John Ismay for the New York Times



‘Got to Get Used to It’: Moscow Braces for More Ukrainian Attacks

Black smoke rises from the area of the Russian oil producer Gazprom Neft's Moscow oil refinery on the south-eastern outskirts of Moscow on June 18, 2026. (AFP)
Black smoke rises from the area of the Russian oil producer Gazprom Neft's Moscow oil refinery on the south-eastern outskirts of Moscow on June 18, 2026. (AFP)
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‘Got to Get Used to It’: Moscow Braces for More Ukrainian Attacks

Black smoke rises from the area of the Russian oil producer Gazprom Neft's Moscow oil refinery on the south-eastern outskirts of Moscow on June 18, 2026. (AFP)
Black smoke rises from the area of the Russian oil producer Gazprom Neft's Moscow oil refinery on the south-eastern outskirts of Moscow on June 18, 2026. (AFP)

In the Moscow district of Maryino, shopkeeper Andrei Kondratyev braced for more Ukrainian attacks and possible petrol shortages, saying Russians needed to "get used to" a new reality.

A day earlier, Kyiv set an oil refinery ablaze in the nearby Kapotnya area in its biggest drone attack on the Russian capital in years engulfing the Russian capital in smoke.

Such scenes were unthinkable when Moscow launched its full-scale offensive against Ukraine in 2022, but have in recent months become part of life in Russia.

Kyiv has sent drones into Russia as far as the Urals in retaliation for Moscow bombing its cities daily.

"We need to already get used to the fact that it can happen anywhere and to anyone. I think we just need to hold it together," 47-year-old Kondratyev told AFP.

The strikes killed one person -- an eight-year-old girl -- and wounded over a dozen, Moscow has said.

Kondratyev said he was also readying himself for other side effects of the Ukrainian strikes on oil depots that have made life less comfortable, such as petrol shortages.

Some Russian regions have been hit by fuel shortages that have so far not been severe.

"There will probably be a small lowering in petrol supplies, but authorities have said -- and we hope for it -- that supplies will continue to arrive," Kondratyev said.

Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky said he wanted Russians to blame "one man" -- President Vladimir Putin -- for the war, which has killed hundreds of thousands and gone on longer than World War I.

Putin has not commented on Thursday's strike yet, despite making public appearances.

When launching Moscow's offensive in 2022, he had told Russians that life back home would not change much.

But, in the fifth year of war, the effects of the conflict in Russia have been increasingly showing, with rising prices, a shortage of labor, and the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes.

- 'When will this mess end?' -

The Russian leader has shown no signs of backing down, insisting Moscow intends to capture the whole of eastern Ukraine by force, despite a stalling offensive, and refusing talks with Zelensky.

But, as people still reeled from Thursday's strikes on Moscow's Kapotnya, they also asked themselves how much longer than conflict can go on for.

"It is very scary, to be honest. The anxiety (from the strike) has not gone away yet. I am shaking," 41-year-old accountant Olga said.

"I would like peace to come soon and for this to stop."

Antonina, a 65-year-old economist, was "worried for the future" and asked herself: "How will things turn out and when will this whole mess end?"

US President Donald Trump said this week that Moscow should "make a deal" to end the war, as Kyiv's western allies piled pressure on the Kremlin at the G7 in France.

But, on the streets of Moscow and far from international talks between leaders, it is not clear what kind of deal Russians would accept.

Moscow has introduced near Soviet-levels of censorship since 2022, with many Russians getting exclusively pro-Kremlin views of the conflict on their televisions and smartphones.

State media does not report on daily Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and some Russians are in disbelief there could be attacks the other way around.

Irina Starovoitova, a 74-year-old doctor, told AFP said she was "not frightened, but bitter."

"We feel bitter because a country we considered a brotherly nation is essentially stabbing us back in the back," she said.

Moscow has historically used the Soviet-era term "brotherly nation" for countries that are loyal to the Kremlin.


Sudan Sexual Violence: Systematic Abuse, Weapon of War

A Sudanese woman in a refugee camp. (Getty Images)
A Sudanese woman in a refugee camp. (Getty Images)
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Sudan Sexual Violence: Systematic Abuse, Weapon of War

A Sudanese woman in a refugee camp. (Getty Images)
A Sudanese woman in a refugee camp. (Getty Images)

As Sudan’s war enters its fourth year, the stories of women and girls who survived sexual violence remain hidden behind the walls of shattered homes and overcrowded displacement camps. But survival has not meant recovery.

Between trauma, stigma, and silence, survivors’ suffering has stretched far beyond the moment of assault, becoming a long ordeal of pain, isolation, and instability.

This investigation is based on interviews conducted by Asharq Al-Awsat with survivors of conflict-related sexual violence, alongside a review of UN reports and documents issued by international organizations, legal experts, and psychologists. The names of survivors and some identifying details have been withheld to protect their safety and privacy.

In a country where war has hollowed out health care and mental health support, the chances of recovery are limited and often nonexistent. Survivors are left to face layered wounds that reach from body to mind, from the individual to the family, and into the wider social fabric.

Sexual violence has therefore become more than an act committed in wartime. It has become a prolonged crisis in which crime meets silence, and violation meets the failure of justice, leaving survivors trapped between what happened to them and a society that has yet to fully acknowledge or contain it.

“My mother barely recognized me”

One testimony begins in El-Azhari, south of Khartoum, where the survivor had lived with her family since the war began. Like thousands of families, they were forced to move between several areas before settling temporarily in Dar al-Salam in Omdurman.

During that period, the woman helped support the family by selling goods brought from Sabrin Market. Her father also sold goods, giving the family a reasonable income.

Her life changed when she was stopped on her way back from the market with her brother during Ramadan 2024. On the way back, they boarded a vehicle heading toward their residential area. Some passengers began questioning them about where they lived and what their father did for work.

The young woman said the group later took them to Dar al-Salam for questioning. She tried to deny some information, but her brother had already given details about the family. She was then taken to the prosecution office in the Libya Market area, where she was questioned by a commander from the Rapid Support Forces, who ordered her detention.

She was held for two days. On the third day, she was transferred to the commander’s house, where she was raped for the first time. A few days later, she was moved to another site and forced to work, cleaning, ironing clothes and doing other tasks, while sexual assaults continued repeatedly.

“They used to come to us at night, and when we refused, we were beaten,” she said. “The marks of torture are still visible on my body today. They put out cigarette butts on our bodies, and my legs now carry permanent scars and disfigurement.”

She said the assaults were not isolated incidents. They were repeated almost daily for months. “Some victims were raped several times a day, sometimes by more than one person,” she said, adding that there was no point in complaining or seeking help when there was no authority to turn to.

According to the young woman, she was held for about four months, during which she did not know what had happened to her brother. She eventually came across a man known to her family.

At first, he did not recognize her because her appearance and physical condition had changed so dramatically. She managed to get his attention and asked him to contact her family. He helped her reach the last RSF security point, from where she was able to return to the Souq al-Hur area and then to her family.

Her family had believed they had lost her forever.

“Even my mother barely recognized me at first because of how thin I had become and the huge changes in my appearance and mental state,” she said.

After a few days of rest, her mother took her to the hospital for medical tests. She also found a way to tell the father what had happened, fearing the shock would overwhelm him.

The young woman ended her testimony by saying her story was not an exception. It resembled the stories of other girls who had been detained, she said. The experience had not only stripped her of freedom and security but also damaged her future. She had been engaged before she was abducted and has still not been able to meet her fiancé or speak to him about what she endured.

What stands out in this testimony is not only the scale of the violations, but the structure behind them: arbitrary arrest, movement between informal detention sites, lack of oversight, and then transfer to semi-official locations where systematic abuses took place inside a sealed space. That structure recurs in other accounts, reinforcing the impression of a pattern rather than an exception.

Nor does this account appear isolated. It overlaps with several testimonies gathered by Asharq Al-Awsat from different areas, revealing similar patterns of detention and abuse against women during Sudan’s war.

“A woman handed me over, and my pregnancy did not protect me”

A woman from Bant East in Omdurman recounted a harsh ordeal during the first months of the war, when she was living with her husband while their child was receiving treatment at the Military Medical Corps hospital.

She said living conditions were extremely difficult. The family suffered shortages of food and basic necessities, while the journey to the Libya Market in far western Omdurman was dangerous because of checkpoints and incidents of arrest, beating and humiliation targeting civilians on the move.

Her pregnancy did not protect her. She was accompanying her sick child to the hospital while two months pregnant. There, she met a woman who appeared to share the family’s circumstances. That woman informed on her and handed her over to the RSF, exploiting her knowledge that the victim’s husband was an officer in the Sudanese army.

“That woman handed me over to RSF members at the Al-Rashideen section and told them I was the wife of an officer,” the survivor said. “I was held there for about a full month.”

She said she told them from the beginning that she was married and pregnant, pleading with them not to torture or beat her. They told her they would take action after she gave birth.

After a period of detention, she was moved to another section known as “Section 18,” where she was held with about 15 wives of military personnel and 12 other civilian women, most of them from Bant.

She said pregnant women were sometimes spared direct beatings, while others were repeatedly abused. The mistreatment included sexual assaults and violations against young girls. Fear, she said, prevented the detainees from objecting or even asking what was happening.

She said the wives of military personnel were pressured and forced to marry RSF members without witnesses or legal procedures. Those in charge of their detention told them openly that since they had not been able to kill their husbands with weapons, they would hurt them this way.

The woman said she repeatedly tried to convince them that she was already married. Each attempt was rejected. In the end, she was forced to marry an RSF commander, who moved her to Dar al-Salam in western Omdurman.

During her time in Dar al-Salam, she was held in a room and denied food and water. She was also regularly drugged, leaving her unable to move or focus and making that period blurred in her memory. Even after she escaped her captors and returned to her family, she still lives with doubt and anxiety over whether she was sexually assaulted during her long detention. She said the drugs and injections she was forced to take left her unaware of much of what happened around her.

The justice gap and the struggle for support

Sexual violence is difficult to document for many reasons. Still, official statistics recorded since the start of the war in Sudan have reached about 2,200 cases, according to State Minister for Human Resources and Social Development Salima Ishaq. She said the figure does not reflect the true scale of the problem, especially in Darfur, where victims are difficult to reach.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Ishaq said such cases are handled through partnerships with national and international organizations and UN agencies.

She said only three cases had reached the courts. All members of the Sudanese army were involved, after their immunity was lifted. Verdicts were issued in Al-Obeid and White Nile.

As for violations attributed to the RSF, Ishaq said legal prosecution is not currently possible. She called for violations to be documented to ensure that perpetrators do not escape punishment in the future.

A UN report said the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights documented more than 500 cases of sexual violence in 2025, including rape, gang rape, sexual torture and sexual slavery. Some of the violations led to death.

The latest report by Médecins Sans Frontières said the organization provided care to more than 3,396 survivors of sexual violence in North and South Darfur between January 2024 and November 2025.

The report cited officials working to combat gender-based violence as saying incidents had increased in several forms, including domestic violence, harassment, and sexual exploitation.

MSF has described these crimes as a “hallmark” of Sudan’s conflict. The World Health Organization has warned that available figures probably represent only the “tip of the iceberg.”

Ishaq said the Health Ministry provides medical and psychological support protocols as much as possible, while legal support is provided in coordination with the public prosecution. She said services and responses vary from state to state, especially as weak funding remains one of the main challenges, “although issues of violence against women are a matter of saving lives, not a secondary issue,” as she put it.

Ishaq also disclosed a plan to establish new protection and shelter centers by integrating services without exposing survivors to stigma or loss of privacy, in an attempt to avoid the failures of earlier efforts.

She said going to court remains a personal choice for survivors, amid social and security fears that obstruct reporting. She stressed the need to provide a safe environment that guarantees confidentiality and protection, especially in a conservative society such as Sudan.

“I will not give up my child”

At the heart of these fears is the story of a survivor from Bahri. She was arrested during the first months of the war and endured a brutal experience of detention, torture and mistreatment that ended in pregnancy and intense social pressure.

In her testimony, the survivor said her suffering did not end when she left detention. A new phase of psychological and social pressure began after she returned to her family. Her mother repeatedly demanded that she give up the child and hand the baby over to care homes. She refused, insisting on her right to keep her child and saying the child bore no blame for what had happened.

“How can I give up a piece of myself?” she said. “I will face my problem and defend my child with all the strength I have.”

The young woman said her decision to keep her child placed her in constant confrontation with her family, society and hurtful attitudes from some people close to her, at a time when she was trying to recover from the ordeal she had survived.

She said what weighs on her most is not only the memory of detention and violations, which keeps returning to her, but also the constant, desperate need to defend her child’s right to life and to stay beside her, while she herself continues trying to recover from a catastrophic war that has destroyed her life.

Sexual violence as a weapon of war

Asharq Al-Awsat asked Ahmed Togod Lisan, spokesman for the Sudan Founding Alliance, known as Tasis, about the rape of women in areas under RSF control and the alliance’s position on accusations that sexual violence has been used as a weapon of war.

The spokesman said he had “reviewed the question, but found no material evidence supporting these accusations and sees no reason to comment on them.”

According to an official definition on the website of the political alliance known as Tasis, the Sudan Founding Alliance is a coalition of Sudanese political factions, armed movements, professionals, trade unions and civil society organizations united by a firm common will to achieve lasting peace, establish democratic rule and build genuine and comprehensive unity across Sudan.

Legal expert Moez Hadra, however, said the four Geneva Conventions of 1949 clearly provide for the protection of civilians during armed conflicts and criminalize the use of sexual violence as a grave violation of international humanitarian law. He said these principles were also included in Sudan’s 1991 Criminal Act, which criminalizes sexual assaults and violations committed against civilians as war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said Sudan faces a real crisis in the path to justice, with no effective justice system capable of holding perpetrators accountable, alongside the collapse of judicial institutions and weak national justice tools. He also said the Human Rights Council had formed a fact-finding committee on violations, but the Sudanese government did not approve its entry, complicating prospects for investigation and accountability.

Hadra said current national and international mechanisms appear unable to fully perform their accountability role, while the domestic justice system is undergoing a broad collapse.

He said the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court is currently limited to crimes committed in Darfur, calling for it to be expanded to cover all of Sudan so perpetrators of grave violations can be pursued wherever the crimes occurred.

The limited number of cases that have reached the courts, compared with the scale of reported violations, reflects the gap between documenting crimes and prosecuting perpetrators, amid the security, legal and institutional challenges imposed by the continuing war.

Shocking statistics

UN Women has estimated that 12.7 million people, most of them women and girls, will need support related to sexual and gender-based violence in 2026 alone. That is up from 3.1 million in 2023, an increase of more than 500,000 people since 2025. It is also nearly twice the number recorded in 2024 and four times the level before the conflict erupted in Sudan.

According to a study by the UN Population Fund in Sudan, 76% of women aged 25 to 49 feel unsafe, whether inside displacement sites or outside them.

In April, UN Women said sexual violence, which had risen steadily in 2025, had escalated sharply this year, amid rising incidents of harassment, exploitation and domestic violence.

The agency published an alert highlighting the disproportionate impact of three years of war on women and girls. It was based on survey data from 85 women-led and women’s rights organizations, along with two focus groups and reports from UN and other international agencies.

The agency said in its report that “two-thirds of women working on the front lines reported a noticeable increase in sexual violence during 2025, while half of participants said it had escalated during 2026.”

No sense of safety

“Women and girls across Sudan recount stories of constant danger. Gender-based violence has become part of their daily lives, whether along roads as they try to flee the ongoing conflict or when they arrive in displacement camps.”

That was the assessment of Fabrizia Falcioni, UNFPA’s representative in Sudan, during a briefing to reporters in New York on April 17, 2026, by video link from Khartoum. She highlighted the deteriorating conditions facing women and girls in the country, saying women “feel unsafe wherever they are.”

The assessment is based on a UNFPA study involving about 1,000 women and girls in 16 of Sudan’s 18 states. The findings showed that 76% of women aged 25 to 49 feel unsafe, whether inside or outside displacement sites, including in markets, at water points, in firewood collection areas and on roads, especially at night.

The UN official said insecurity also reaches into daily life, noting that the “sense of insecurity” is compounded by power cuts and cities going dark at night. She said reporting of gender-based violence remains limited because of stigma, fear of retaliation, financial constraints and the distance to service centers.

Deep psychological wounds

Psychologist Khadija Mohammed al-Obeid said survivors of sexual violence in armed conflicts and wars face strong and complex psychological effects. Trauma does not end with the assault itself. It is worsened by displacement, war, and the loss of safety.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, she said one of the most serious psychological effects survivors may suffer is post-traumatic stress disorder, marked by repeated flashbacks of the painful event, nightmares and disturbing dreams, as well as avoidance of people, places or situations that recall the incident.

Survivors may also suffer constant hypervigilance, fear and anxiety, directly affecting their daily lives and social relationships.

Al-Obeid stressed the importance of providing psychosocial support to survivors of sexual violence through safe spaces that preserve privacy and human dignity.

She said survivors must be connected to support networks and specialized services to ensure they receive appropriate care and treatment, helping them recover and resume normal life.

The void in mental health support

Conflict-related sexual violations are not passing incidents. They are lasting wounds that reshape survivors’ lives amid continuing struggles for support, protection and justice.

The testimonies reveal not only the scale of the violations, but the depth of the void they leave behind: a void in mental health support, legal protection and social response, which in many cases still leans toward silence rather than confrontation. While the actors in the war multiply, women remain at its most vulnerable center, and among those least able to reach justice.

Continued impunity does not threaten survivors alone. It entrenches the cycle of violence and turns the crime into a pattern that can be repeated. Confronting these violations is therefore not only about the past. It is also about the future: the future of justice, the credibility of institutions, and society’s ability to recover from the effects of war.

As the war continues to reshape the lives of millions of Sudanese, the suffering of survivors of sexual violence remains one of its harshest consequences, and one of the least visible to the public.


Netanyahu, Israel’s Arch-Survivor, Set to Face Voter Fury Over Iran Deal

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a news conference in Jerusalem, 15 June 2026, following the announcement of a US-Iran mediated preliminary framework to end regional military hostilities. (EPA)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a news conference in Jerusalem, 15 June 2026, following the announcement of a US-Iran mediated preliminary framework to end regional military hostilities. (EPA)
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Netanyahu, Israel’s Arch-Survivor, Set to Face Voter Fury Over Iran Deal

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a news conference in Jerusalem, 15 June 2026, following the announcement of a US-Iran mediated preliminary framework to end regional military hostilities. (EPA)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a news conference in Jerusalem, 15 June 2026, following the announcement of a US-Iran mediated preliminary framework to end regional military hostilities. (EPA)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hopes of clinging to power in an election this autumn have long been shaky, but the interim US deal with Iran has added yet another complication.

US President Donald Trump has opted to end the wars in Iran and Lebanon long before Israel's goals were accomplished, and Netanyahu's boast in March that "we are changing the face of the Middle East" looks increasingly empty.

Already facing corruption allegations, domestic political controversies and criticism over security failings in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, he will now face voters' judgement of his handling of the wars and Israel's relationship with the United States, its most important ally.

Netanyahu, 76, confirmed this week he intends to stand again in an election that must be called by October.

Opinion polls put his right-wing coalition on course to lose but, in a parliamentary system he has dominated for long stretches since the 1990s, few Israelis would entirely discount him weaving together a new government.

NO LASTING VICTORIES

However the election unfolds, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, whom supporters once called "King Bibi", is already the most consequential leader of recent Israeli history and the object ‌of boundless fury to ‌critics.

Netanyahu's Likud party portrays him as the security hawk who staved off demands for a Palestinian state ‌while ⁠urging attacks on Israel's ⁠enemy, Iran, and its regional proxies.

"There will be no Palestinian state to the west of the Jordan River," Netanyahu said in 2025, adding "for years I have prevented the creation of that terror state, against tremendous pressure".

His hawkish image was dented by security failings before the Hamas attack, for which he has not taken responsibility, and by wars that brought military successes but no lasting victories.

Tens of thousands of people have been killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza and Lebanon, and Israel's military death toll is at its highest in decades.

Domestic critics say Netanyahu focused security away from the Gaza border and disregarded Hamas as a real threat.

Although Israelis mostly backed the war in Gaza, many turned against Netanyahu's handling of it. Some prominent generals and families of hostages were among critics who said he lacked ⁠a clear strategic plan.

The killings of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, were ‌celebrated in Israel. But Hamas still controls much of Gaza, revolutionary theocrats still rule Iran and Hezbollah ‌has survived in Lebanon.

"Netanyahu lost the war. Netanyahu did not deliver - at the moment of truth he collapsed," opposition leader Yair Lapid said after Trump imposed a new ‌Israel-Hezbollah truce as part of his deal with Iran.

Netanyahu decries such criticism as part of a campaign to diminish Israel's accomplishments.

Warning of a ‌potential nuclear threat from Iran, he said: "If we had not acted in time and with overwhelming force – we would not be here today."

DENYING ACCUSATIONS OF WAR CRIMES

The devastation in Gaza drew accusations abroad of genocide that Israel rejects and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Netanyahu on war crimes charges, which he called absurd.

While he has assiduously courted Western support for Israel, he has also antagonized US presidents and other world leaders. A biographer quoted former US President Joe Biden as in private calling him ‌a "son of a bitch" and "a bad [expletive] guy."

The expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and attacks on Palestinians there have meanwhile fueled international calls to revive the peace process.

Anger has gone both ⁠ways - many Israelis think Western criticism of ⁠their Gaza campaign after the Hamas attack was unfair.

Rival politicians accuse Netanyahu of caving to US pressure. But in the US, his close ties to the Republican party and attacks on Democrats have helped upset decades of bipartisan support among politicians. Backing for Israel is falling among voters of both parties.

Trump, the US president he has been closest to, called him "[expletive] crazy" during a June phone call.

LONGEST-SERVING PRIME MINISTER

Born to a prominent historian, Netanyahu went to school in the US before joining the same elite commando unit as his elder brother, Yoni, who was killed leading the rescue of hijacked air passengers at Entebbe, Uganda, in 1976. Netanyahu said that event "changed my life".

He proved at ease in the tough world of Israeli politics, appealing to the gut instincts of his core voter base in gritty towns and settlements.

He became Israel's youngest prime minister in 1996, forging a coalition of settlers, security hawks, the ultra-Orthodox and pro-business voters, and has seen off many opponents, building a string of coalitions and ruthlessly abandoning former allies.

Dogged by a corruption trial, Netanyahu won an unprecedented sixth term in 2022, bringing into government nationalist parties with an openly expansionist agenda.

Their efforts to curb the Supreme Court prompted the biggest protests in Israel's history in 2023.

Netanyahu had sought a legacy through the Abraham Accords - 2020 agreements meant to normalize or expand ties with four Arab countries. He hoped to achieve peace with the Arab world without having to accept Palestinian self-determination.

But the 2023 Hamas attack and Gaza war made that impossible and with Israel's standing in the West badly dented, his legacy will now be much more bitterly contested.