North Korean leader Kim Jong Un welcomes Chinese President Xi Jinping to Pyongyang on Monday, feeling in a position of strength with a firm ally in Russia, a nuclear arsenal and little apparent appetite to engage with Washington.
For Xi, leader of the world's second-biggest economy, the two-day visit to China's neighbor, his first in seven years, is part of an effort to draw Pyongyang back into its orbit.
Xi hosted Kim, among other leaders, at a massive military parade in Beijing last year, and the two countries have since resumed some passenger rail and air services.
This week's summit is likely to present a contrast to Xi's first visit to the isolated state in 2019 - months after a meeting between Kim and US President Donald Trump fell apart over denuclearizing North Korea and sanctions relief.
XI'S VISIT 'A BIG DEAL' FOR NORTH AFTER 'COMEBACK'
Since then, Kim has forged closer military and trade ties with Moscow, bolstered by his dispatch of troops to fight for Russia in the Ukraine war, continued to build up his nuclear capabilities in defiance of UN sanctions and locked down the North Korean border to stop the flow of escapees.
North Korea has sought to flex its strength on the eve of Xi's arrival, announcing plans on Saturday for a 10,000-ton naval destroyer and reaffirming its status as a nuclear-armed state on Sunday.
"Having Xi visit Pyongyang is a big deal and the culmination of a good couple of 'comeback' years for Kim," said Andrew Gilholm, an analyst at consultancy Control Risks.
In 2019 Kim gave Xi a lavish reception that included thousands of people holding up placards that formed a picture of Xi's face and the Chinese flag, and a performance of the song "I Love Thee, China".
But relations between the two have been strained at times, particularly over North Korea's nuclear program. Beijing has publicly opposed Pyongyang's nuclear tests and called for it to give up its nuclear weapons.
North Korea has been cautious about becoming over-reliant on China, with which it shares an 1,400-km (880-mile) border. Support from Russia is likely providing some balance.
"North Korea is certainly gaining economically from what they're able to provide militarily to Russia," said John Delury, a senior fellow of the Asia Society. "That actually puts North Korea in a position where they may feel more confident to increase the volume of trade and investment with China."
PUSH FOR TOURISM, RED LINE ON NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Any substantive outcome of the meeting is likely to be about economic cooperation, a regional diplomat said, as North Korea starts a five-year development plan that includes expanding tourism into a solid industry and building more housing.
North Korea shut its borders to foreign tourists in early 2020 as it imposed some of the world's strictest COVID-19 controls, cutting off a modest but important source of hard currency.
Before the pandemic, Chinese tourists were the backbone of North Korea's tourism industry, accounting for 90% of foreign tourists by some estimates. The first known leisure tourists allowed back after COVID were about 100 from Russia's Far East in February 2024, according to Russian provincial authorities and a Western tour guide.
North Korea has managed to make economic progress, Singapore's foreign minister said after visit last month. He said Pyongyang appeared to have little interest in engaging with the United States or South Korea.
North Korea has rejected reunification with South Korea, which had long been a goal of both nations, divided since the 1950-1953 Korean War. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, however, remains keen on dialogue and has asked Xi to assist his efforts.
"Improving inter-Korean relations through the mediation of President Xi Jinping, we are hoping that President Xi would play that kind of role," said Moon Chung-in, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul who was national security adviser to a previous South Korean president.
Kim has drawn some red lines, including on his nuclear program. In addition to Sunday's announcement, he called on Thursday for an "exponential" expansion of the country's atomic arsenal.
Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said Kim was likely to continue expanding fissile-material production, increase and deploy nuclear weapons and emphasize the legitimacy of strengthening Pyongyang's nuclear deterrent.
"Kim is emboldened," said Christopher Green, a Korea specialist at Leiden University in the Netherlands.
"He feels able to publicly pursue a marked expansion of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal with a confidence that comes from knowing that as long as he doesn’t foment outright instability in the region, Beijing will not try to stop him."
